Felipe Augusto Machado retweeted
The @OECD's new 2026 Ownership and Governance of State-Owned Enterprises report, released today, finds that SOEs' economic footprint has doubled over the past decade, based on data from 58 OECD member & partner economies tinyurl.com/rsz2kr7 @OECDgov
Felipe Augusto Machado retweeted
A Folha publicou em português a excelente reportagem do Financial Times sobre a expansão do trabalho precário como motorista de Uber no Brasil (país que mais usa o aplicativo), e como isso ajuda a entender o mal-estar na economia e a eleição presidencial. www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercad…
Felipe Augusto Machado retweeted
The problem with this argument is it rests entirely on the widely misunderstood concept of labor productivity.
Many people, especially non-economists, hear calls to "increase the average labor productivity of Brazilian workers" and think that means the reason Brazil is so much poorer than Switzerland is because Brazilian workers are supposedly lazy and don't work as hard as Swiss workers. But that is false and absurd.
Labor productivity is simply defined as worker contribution to real GDP per hour of labor.
The reason labor productivity is low in Brazil, and in the periphery in general, is because of the productive structure of the economy.
Brazil, like most of Latin America (and the periphery as a whole), has an economy centered on exports of agricultural goods, minerals, energy, and other commodities. These are very low value-added, labor-intensive sectors with lots of international competition (and therefore low profit margins).
The reason Switzerland's labor productivity is so high is because it has monopolistic "moats" in some very high value-added sectors like specialized financial services (ie, banking for global oligarchs) and advanced manufacturing.
A Swiss banker working on a computer in an air-conditioned office will have an exponentially higher labor productivity than a Brazilian farmer or miner (or even a Brazilian banker), not because the Swiss banker works harder (they objectively don't), but because they work in specialized high value-added services and can simply charge exponentially more for their labor.
These high value-added industries can't just be magically recreated in the periphery. Every country in Latin America and Africa would love to be the next Singapore (and many have tried), but you can't skip stages of development.
Not everyone in the world can just work in the high value-added service sector -- especially when the high labor productivity in the advanced economies fundamentally depends on cheap energy, food, and minerals produced by workers in the periphery.
When we talk about the global value chain, we're really talking about a highly stratified global division of labor. And it is very, very difficult to move up it. That takes years of careful planning, investment, education, training, infrastructure build-out, technology transfer, etc. -- which in turn requires political stability and the ability of the state to implement long-term planning without significant disruption.
Neoliberalism was never as simple as "the government must spend less". It was about the state giving power to markets and the investor class to decide what the priorities of political-economy policymaking would be.
This investor class (consisting of both foreign investors and the domestic compradores) prioritizes maximizing return on investment, not developing the productive capacity of the local economy. That's why it primarily invests in the extractive commodity export sector.
This also explains why Brazil (and most of Latin America) significantly deindustrialized during the neoliberal period, and has become even more dependent on the low value-added export of commodities.
In Brazil the situation is even more extreme:
1. There are 39 million formal private sector employees.
2. There are 20 million families on government welfare, with nearly 60 million people, plus 37 million people that are retired and receiving government pensions (however, in Brazil many "retired" people continue working in the informal sector).
Brazil is a country of 210 million where 39 million formal workers produce 85-90% of GDP. The inequality in productivity is even more pronounced if you consider that the 270 major public companies in the Brazilian stock market produce 18% of Brazil's GDP while employing 2.8 million workers (portal.fgv.br/noticias/estud…). That means that 1.3% of the total population and 2.7% of the labor force produce 17.9% of output in the nation.
This shows the enormous but so far unexploided growth potential in Brazil: if we increased the average labor productivity of Brazilian workers to the standard of the 270 major public companies, GDP would be 6.6 times the current figure, higher in per capita terms than in the US or Switzerland.
Felipe Augusto Machado retweeted
SUL GLOBAL: O DESAFIO DA REINDUSTRIALIZAÇÃO
Sul Global: reindustrializar exige empresas públicas, planejamento estatal, quebra de patentes e integração Sul-Sul. O Estado à frente, contra a ultradireita
outraspalavras.net/descoloni…
Felipe Augusto Machado retweeted
Estatal italiana assume controle da Telecom Itália e se torna controladora indireta da Tim no Brasil
c-level.folha.uol.com.br/neg…
Felipe Augusto Machado retweeted
3/13 - 20 anos de desindustrialização
A indústria de transformação saiu de um pico de 35,9% do PIB em 1985 para um mínimo de aproximadamente 11% em 2020. Enquanto isso, a média dos países de renda média manteve um patamar estável: o gap não para de crescer.
Felipe Augusto Machado retweeted
The post-war conversion of the publicly-owned Finmeccanica and its privatisation-militarisation (from the 1990s) into Leonardo, in a chart 👇
From my essay for @TransitionSec / @Cmmonwealth:
transitionsecurity.org/leona…
Felipe Augusto Machado retweeted
1/ A Maioria dos brasileiros rejeita o neoliberalismo e prefere um Estado com atuação forte no desenvolvimento e bem-estar social.
É o que mostra a pesquisa da IPSOS encomendada pelo Fundo Global para uma Nova Economia. 🧶
Felipe Augusto Machado retweeted
1/3
New paper published: “Sustained exchange rate misalignments and long-run growth.”
We study sustained episodes of real exchange-rate under and overvaluation in 124 countries over 1950–2019, focusing on long-run effects on growth, investment, and structural change.
Felipe Augusto Machado retweeted
Quanto maior a complexidade da atividade, maior o salário. Atividades industriais são na média mais compelidas. O Brasil emprega a maioria das pessoas em atividades de baixa complexidade. As atividades agro são na média de baixa complexidade.
Felipe Augusto Machado retweeted
Pesquisa que acaba de sair
Parece não colar no Brasil, a ideia de que “o que é bom para o mercado é bom para o país”.
1/
Felipe Augusto Machado retweeted
“China is becoming a factory for factories. No longer just a producer of low-value consumer goods, China is now exporting more of the higher-value intermediate and capital goods that underpin global manufacturing, such as chips, precision machinery and robotic arms.” @hannahmiao_ wsj.com/economy/trade/chinas…
Felipe Augusto Machado retweeted
The IMF finds “China is backing strategic businesses, like green tech, while the west props up old sectors with political clout, like agriculture.”
In the west, capital disciplines the state to prop up high profits in old industries.
In China, the state creates markets and steers capital towards new strategic industries.
State-capital relations are key in understanding the China-west competitiveness divergence. Real industrial policy is not throwing subsidies at corporations but leveraging and creating public and private capacity towards goals like a green transformation.
Felipe Augusto Machado retweeted
NEW
The FCC has now added two new categories of devices to our Covered List, which bans new versions from import or sale in America.
1. Advanced robotic devices, such as humanoids and quadrupeds produced in foreign countries.
2. Power inverters produced in foreign countries.
This action follows determinations by Executive Branch nat sec agencies that the devices pose unacceptable risks to our national security.
It includes exemptions for devices that, based on a DOW or DHS finding, pose no unacceptable threat.
Felipe Augusto Machado retweeted
A new research paper finds that catch-up development is largely a myth.
Since 1960, the income gap between advanced economies (the core) and developing economies (the periphery) has widened by 170–270%, depending on the currency concept.
Global inequality is getting worse.
Felipe Augusto Machado retweeted
Amazing lessons for developing countries who would like to move up the industrial ladder via FDI as China did: attracting FDI and bargaining for technology transfer are only first, difficult steps: eastisread.com/p/feng-kaidon…
Felipe Augusto Machado retweeted
Fantasmas da crise de 1997 ainda assombram Seul
valor.globo.com/financas/not…
Felipe Augusto Machado retweeted
O EPPGG Felipe Machado publicou artigo na @cartacapital em que defende a necessidade de uma mudança radical na estratégia de desenvolvimento nacional. Leia: tinyurl.com/EstrategiaDes
Felipe Augusto Machado retweeted
País sem futuro?
Em novo artigo para a Carta Capital (@cartacapital), tento demonstrar o tamanho da distância que nos separa do mundo desenvolvido, como ela aumentou nas últimas décadas e por que somente uma alteração radical da estratégia nacional poderá nos tornar desenvolvidos em poucas gerações.
A boa notícia é que, assim como no caso da seleção brasileira de futebol, nossa própria história traz motivos para otimismo.
O caminho parece estar na retomada de características que um dia nutriram o sonho do país do futuro: liderança, fortalecimento e planejamento estatal, desenvolvimento das capacidades produtivas, ambição e ousadia.
Fontes:
Memórias de Chen Yizi. Em: Weber, Isabella. How China Escaped Shock Therapy: The Market Reform Debate. @IsabellaMWeber
PIB per capita de 1930 a 1980: Maddison Project, PPC, dólares de 2011.
PIB per capita de 1990 até hoje: Banco Mundial, PPC, dólares internacionais de 2021.
PIB per capita, crescimento anual (%): Banco Mundial, dólares de 2015.
Zweig, Stefan. Brasil, país do futuro.








































