rob

Elon called it out: SoftBank is defaulting on their turbine orders. I suspect the main reason is what I repeatedly pointed out for months: 1. SI demand is going through the roof. There is no bubble. 2. The real problem is supply. 3. Supply has multiple layers: a) Energy b) Land and permits c) Buildings d) Chips & memory e) Building the superclusters f) Financing a) has become the #1 problem, and only Elon can solve it. You need to literally manufacture your own turbine blades. OR you have to find a place where there is enough excess energy AND an entity that is able to do the right kind of deal - which is possible but very hard. b) this is becoming harder but is not the primary problem. Going forward, it requires pitching local communities, offer very good deals to the actual people living there and making sure everyone is happy, which requires a new skillset c) Buildings = easy d) Getting access to large clusters of chips AND memory requires large-scale projects (50B+) AND a strong reputation that you will get it done and pay. Not many entities or people can secure supply from Nvidia and Micron. e) one of the most underrated problems: you have to actually build these things with hundreds of thousands of perfectly calibrated GPUs, etc. - you need a lot of rocket scientists for that, or face years of delay and massive cost explosions f) you need access to tens of billions of money , meaning flawless credit profile OR a pile of cash you are sitting on OR a deep equity market profile. Put these together - and you will see this game is one that can only be done by AWS, META, MSFT, GOOG and SPCX... AND that SPCX will have a 2-4x speed advantage, wich translates into tens of billions saved in interest and faster ROIC cycles. +++ In short: MASSIVE demand overhang that is getting WORSE over time. TRILLIONS of margin to be generated over the next 5 years. A HANDFUL of companies who can stand up the supply. SPCX getting the lion share of it. /C /Compute buildout.