Carrie Sagel Burns

#BREAKING: First cone is out with a Florida hurricane expected Tuesday into Wednesday across the state. Initial landfall intensity from the NHC is upper Cat 2 and near Cat 3. Next name is #Milton. Here are my thoughts as of Saturday: 1. This system is unfortunately already organizing at a quick pace over warmer than average water temps in the Gulf Mexico for October. 2. For that reason, I do agree that this will intensify into a hurricane in the days ahead. Can't rule out a Major Hurricane at peak intensity *IF* favorable ingredients come together. 3. Current highest probability for landfall is between Hernando Beach to Everglades City, which includes potential tracks through Tampa Bay or Southwest Florida. Although model changes are always possible, they will start to tighten up with greater accuracy over the next day or two. When that gradually occurs soon, we will be able to give you more specifics on local surge, wind, etc. Reminder that every storm is different in the impacts they bring and those impacts will be felt outside of the cone too. 4. IMPORTANT: Surge will again be a problem for a portion of our western Florida coastline. This is a unique and rare angle of approach from the southwest. That means that if you're on the southern side of the storm you will be getting surge to a certain degree. *CLOSEST TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE EYEWALL WILL GET THE HIGHEST SURGE.* That's why landfall location is important with this storm. Every mile makes a difference! If you're north of the center, your wind will be coming in from a different direction and from the land...more likely to suck the water out at landfall. Some surge is still possible north after the storm exists, but not to the level compared to those south of the center. 5. Remain calm. Now is the time this weekend to review your hurricane plan with your family or friends. Grab necessities, but don't overstock! Remember about our neighbors and others in the community. If you are told to evacuate, please do so! You're in good hands here at WINK. I will guide you through the entire storm 24/7 from start to finish, without the hype and with information you need. Make sure to tune into WINK News for the latest all week.