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Financial Flagship retweeted
Blackstone is telling investors Anthropic will likely get a “high” junk credit rating after its IPO, reversing earlier guidance that expected investment grade by year-end. 🚨
That matters because Anthropic plans $800B+ in compute spending through 2045, and a junk rating means costlier debt and a smaller buyer pool, since many insurers and pension funds can’t hold it. It may have to keep leaning on high-rated partners like Broadcom, which already guarantees $42B+ of the $63B North Star deal.
Tech stocks sold off on the news, with the Nasdaq 100 down 3.7%. Does a junk rating matter if the IPO raises another $100B?
Financial Flagship retweeted
Binance Halts Transactions Following Record-Breaking Cyber Heist
~$6.3B stolen. Deposits and withdrawals are suspended while Binance investigates.
Suspect: TRM Labs and Pangolin Intelligence say it looks like North Korea’s TraderTraitor group. TRM: “This was absolutely North Korea.”
How: Binance’s initial probe points to a compromised DevOps engineer’s laptop, used to submit unauthorized withdrawals.
Scale: it dwarfs the previous record, the $1.5B Bybit hack in 2025
CZ says user funds are safe.
Would you still keep your crypto on an exchange after this?
Financial Flagship retweeted
Alphabet Q3 earnings fast recap
$GOOGL AI is booming, but its search cash cow just stumbled. Revenue up 25% to $127.6B, but it narrowly missed estimates, and shares fell about 10% after hours.
Cloud: up 103% YoY to $30.7B, beating expectations
Search: growth slowed to 12%, down from 17% in Q2 and 19% in Q1. Services revenue came in at $96.3B vs. $98.5B expected
Free cash flow: negative $9.1B, much worse than analysts expected
Capex: $51.4B in the quarter, and it’s set to rise significantly in 2027
The twist: search queries are growing at their fastest rate in five years thanks to AI Mode, but those queries monetize at a lower rate than traditional search. Google says it’s working on that now.
Also in the mix: Anthropic’s S-1 shows it has committed about $114.5B to Google for compute, and Google owns more than 5% of Anthropic.
3.4% yoy growth is a pretty good start, let’s see how the AI trade continues
The U.S. economy grew at a 3.4% annualized pace in the third quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate released today.
The outcome topped economists’ expectations of 3.2% and marked an acceleration from the 2.2% growth in the second quarter.
Real consumer spending grew 3.8%, the same pace as in the second quarter.
Financial Flagship retweeted
Okay, I guess I was whining a bit too much in those earlier posts today.
$GOOGL absolutely cooked with this model. Gemini 4 Carbon is the new number 1 on the Artificial Intelligence Index. You can read all the important numbers and stats in the quoted post.
Google is back.
Google’s Gemini 4 Carbon is the new #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v5, and second only to Claude Opus 5.5 on the Artificial Analysis Coding Agent Index
Gemini 4 Carbon scores 59 on Intelligence Index v5, driven by leading performance in complex reasoning, knowledge, and scientific tasks. It also has large gains in coding and knowledge work, particularly when compared to other Gemini models, but it is not leading in all these areas.
As with launch of Gemini 4 Argon, Gemini 4 Carbon is being rolled out to selected users and is not yet publicly available. Google is offering a 50% launch discount, with no confirmed end date. All our charts and figures use standard pricing for both Gemini 4 Carbon and Argon.
Key results for Gemini 4 Carbon with high reasoning:
➤ Gemini 4 Carbon leads the Intelligence Index v5, with the #1 score in 4 of the 9 Index evaluations: HLE-Diamond, Terminal-Bench-Science, AA-Omniscience, AutomationBench-AA. Carbon makes substantial gains elsewhere but is not leading in coding and knowledge work
➤ Behind only Claude Opus 5.5 on coding agents: With Antigravity CLI, Gemini 4 Carbon (high) scores 59 only 3 points behind Claude Code with Claude Opus 5.5 (max, 62) on the Artificial Analysis Coding Agent Index. Carbon ranks second on both Terminal-Bench 4.0 (64%) and FrontierCode v1.1 (51%), behind Claude Opus 5.5 (max) at 56%. Google has historically underperformed in this area and so this improvement stands out
➤ Improved agentic knowledge work, but not yet leading: On AA-Briefcase, Gemini 4 Carbon (high) scores 1609 Elo, a 126-point improvement over Gemini 4 Argon (high, 1483), but still behind models including Grok 4.7 (xhigh, 1638), Muse Wonder (max, 1659) and Kimi K3.1 Pro (1678). The largest gain comes from Presentation, up 293 Elo to 1598, alongside a 120-point improvement in Analytical Quality to 1671
➤ Lower Cost per Task than Claude Opus 5.5 for comparable overall intelligence: Gemini 4 Carbon costs $7.76 per Intelligence Index task, ~23% less than Claude Opus 5.5 (max, $10.04) but ~1.2x GPT-6 Astra (max, $6.25). It uses 123k output tokens per task, 29% fewer than Claude Opus 5.5 (max, 173k). At the same $4/$20 standard pricing, its Cost per Task is in line with Gemini 4 Argon ($7.68), while scoring 9 points higher on the Intelligence Index
➤ Leading AA-Omniscience v1.1 score, with low hallucination: Gemini 4 Carbon scores 54 on our recently updated AA-Omniscience v1.1, 6 points ahead of Claude Opus 5.5 (max, 48) and 8 points ahead of Gemini 4 Argon (46). Accuracy (% correct) rises 10 points over Argon to 58%, while its hallucination rate rises from 4% to 11%. This is still the second lowest of any model, behind only Argon, compared with 50% for both Claude Opus 5.5 (max) and GPT-6 Astra (max)
Key model details:
➤ Context Window: 1M tokens
➤ Multimodality: Text, image, video, and speech input, with text output
➤ Pricing: $4/$20 per 1M input/output tokens, the same as Gemini 4 Argon’s standard pricing, with a 50% discount. Cached input tokens receive a 95% discount ($0.20 per 1M)
Congratulations to the @GoogleDeepMind team!
Financial Flagship retweeted
In its S-1, Anthropic didn’t list a TAM number. It just pointed at the economic value of all knowledge work: more than $40 trillion a year.
For scale:
📈 $SPCX pitched $28.5T earlier this year
🏠 $ABNB pitched $3.4T in its 2020 IPO
💥 Anthropic’s $40T is nearly as big as seven other tech companies’ TAMs combined ($48.2T)
TAM isn’t a forecast. Anthropic’s revenue is still measured in billions, not trillions. But the giant denominator tells investors that even wild growth today could be a sliver of the opportunity.
Is a $40T TAM visionary or just creative math?
Financial Flagship retweeted
OpenAI just dropped three new discoveries across math, CS, and physics
Mathematics: a new result in harmonic analysis
Computer science: a result on the Exponential Time Hypothesis (ETH), the longstanding conjecture about how hard Boolean formula satisfiability is, which is deeply tied to P vs. NP
Physics: a mathematically rigorous existence proof for certain interacting quantum field theories with gauge fields and fermions in 4D, including QCD and a unified completion of the Standard Model
Are you still bearish on AI and calling it a bubble?
Financial Flagship retweeted
Anthropic’s S-1 shows an unusual governance setup: public shareholders get little say, and that’s by design.
Control: The 7 cofounders will hold 50.1% of the vote through a single Class F share
Board: The Long-Term Benefit Trust elects a majority of the directors
As a public benefit corporation, directors must weigh shareholder returns against the company’s mission, not just maximize profit.
Giving: 5% of fully diluted shares go into a public benefit fund, and the board can add up to another 2% each time the stock rises 50% above the previous milestone.
Financial Flagship retweeted
Anthropic’s S-1, made public today, reveals it will pay $SPCX ~$3.1B per month for NVIDIA GPU compute once all capacity is delivered (expected Dec 2026). Total commitment: up to $120.5B through 2029. Either side can cancel on 90 days’ notice after early 2027.
