FRAGMENTS Value

𝗫𝗲𝗿𝗼𝘅 $XRX — $𝟮𝟱𝟬 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗯𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗺𝗲 $𝟱𝟬–𝟭𝟬𝟬 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 Xerox cut its annual cash forecast, suspended its dividends and announced a debt exchange that would give participating lenders secured borrowing and shares. Anyone looking at the lower stock price now has to reconsider how much money the business can generate and how much will reach shareholders. 𝗢𝘂𝗿 𝘂𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗚𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 examines the assets, warrants and creditor negotiations, then returns to the assumptions behind our earlier valuation. How much cheaper does the stock need to be when the company expects this much less cash? Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗦𝗶𝘅 ($ASIX) 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 $𝟯𝟰𝟲 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗳𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝗳𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟭–𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟮. 𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀, 𝗶𝘁 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 $𝟭𝟴 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻. Its June balance sheet showed $26 a share of tangible book value. Much of that sits in chemical equipment whose value depends on what the plants can earn after paying to maintain themselves. Lower capital spending, cost savings and tax credits could change the cash picture. The investment case rests on how much of that improvement lasts. Our Deep Value Report values the plants against transactions and project costs, rebuilds nine years of cash generation, and examines the debt covenants alongside the Hopewell wastewater lawsuit. We also calculate the additional savings an acquirer would need to justify a takeover premium. The Bear, Base and Bull ranges show what shareholders could receive under different earnings and investment assumptions. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗦𝗶𝘅 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗚𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦 𝗽𝗮𝗶𝗱 𝘀𝘂𝗯𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗶𝗯𝗲𝗿𝘀. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 — 𝗦𝗶𝘅 𝗙𝗹𝗮𝗴𝘀 $FUN Six Flags trades near $𝟳.𝟳𝟬, while an activist’s September 2025 proposal estimated potential value at $𝟯𝟵.𝟮𝟲 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲 through a real-estate separation and an operating recovery. Activist investors have pressed for a sale of the company or its properties. A purchaser could acquire Cedar Point, Knott’s Berry Farm and Canada’s Wonderland, together with hotels, marinas, campgrounds and substantial landholdings. Our published report examines those assets individually, with 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝗱𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗿𝘀, land and hotel transaction comparisons, and prices per acre, room and park visit. It checks the cash needed to support those estimates, then accounts for debt, outside partners and sale expenses to calculate possible proceeds per share. Last week’s announcement of additional seat belts and an independent safety review adds another investment question for any buyer. The report includes capital-spending sensitivities, insurance exposure and the upcoming Georgia payment. Paid subscribers can read the full analysis and the property tables. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗹 𝗜𝘀 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗽. 𝗕𝘂𝘁 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲? On Sunday morning, prediction markets were giving Flávio Bolsonaro roughly an 𝟴𝟬% 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 of winning Brazil's presidential election. Lula won instead. By Monday's close, $EWS 𝗵𝗮𝗱 𝗳𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗻 𝟭𝟵.𝟴% 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗘𝗪𝗭𝗦 𝗵𝗮𝗱 𝗹𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝟯𝟭.𝟲%. I keep thinking about what actually changed between Friday and Monday. Brazilian factories did not suddenly lose a fifth of their productive capacity. Banks were still lending, companies were still operating, and people were still going to work. Yet the price investors were willing to pay for those businesses changed enormously in a matter of hours. Of course, there are economic reasons for that reaction. The Ibovespa fell 𝟭𝟯.𝟴𝟴% in local currency, while the U.S. dollar gained 𝟴.𝟮𝟭% against the real. For an American investor holding EWZ, both movements affected the return. Expectations about fiscal policy, interest rates and future borrowing costs also changed after the election. What interests me even more is the psychology. If investors believed Bolsonaro had an 80% chance of winning, 𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟬%? At what point did a probable outcome become something people were investing as though it were almost certain? I cannot conclude that the market overreacted simply because the factories were still operating Monday morning. Future earnings and the cost of capital can change substantially even when today's operations remain the same. But I would like to know how much of that decline came from investors genuinely revising their estimates of future cash flows, and how much came from people suddenly abandoning positions built around an election result they expected. 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗱𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝗲𝗹𝗹. When I published my 𝗖𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗿𝘆 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 — 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗹 in August, I was looking at individual companies rather than trying to predict an election. I examined the U.S.-listed stocks and the local B3 securities, including their 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗰𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘀, 𝗯𝗮𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘀𝗵𝗲𝗲𝘁𝘀 and the risks behind their apparent discounts. With 𝗣𝗢𝗠𝗢𝟰, 𝗕𝗥𝗦𝗥𝟲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗥𝗔𝗣𝗧𝟰, I was particularly interested in normalized earnings, credit quality, debt and what ultimately belongs to shareholders. Now I would go back to those same companies and recalculate their values at the new prices, taking into account what the election may actually change for each business. I would rather do that work than automatically assume yesterday's decline was either a tremendous buying opportunity or a perfectly rational repricing. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…