Assoc. Director and Sr. Policy Analyst, Frontier Group, part of @TPINNetwork. Transport, energy and climate policy, mostly.

Boston, MA
Joined August 2013
Two things can be true: 1) BAAJA is unmodelable and people who purport to model its climate impacts are either guessing or trying to sell you something. 2) The modeling that's come out on certain supposedly pro-climate changes resulting from BAAJA is underwhelming ...
Are they really going to pass the biggest energy infrastructure bill in decades without *any* modeling of its estimated emissions impacts? @SenWhitehouse @SenatorHeinrich?
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It seems likely under that sceario that emissions in the policy case would not be much reduced - if reduced at all - from today's levels, even if only looking at the grid. Which is tough for a proposal that purports to be so essential for "climate" ...
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... that it's worth jeopardizing generations of progress in cleaning up our air and water and protecting wildlife and public lands.
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I'm not convinced at all that a strategy that hyper-charges energy production at the expense of core protections for water, species and communities is any more politically palatable than one focused on limiting fossil fuels (or a strategy that uses multiple tools and ...
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... incremental policy wins to advance the ball deliberately and assuredly toward a cleaner energy system).
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A bailed-out company in an R&D and capital intensive business, with a slate of mostly uncompetitive products, can't find anyplace to deploy $20 billion besides stock buybacks. Another sign the US auto industry is heading for the scrap heap wsj.com/business/autos/gener…
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There is a kind of modeling that would be really useful right now: honest, unbiased scenario modeling that enables the public and decision-makers to explore the many “what ifs” of this deal, assess its risks and ID the factors that really matter. You won’t see this.
Replying to @noahqk
But I just want to note that the same people now expressing suspicion about the modeled results of the bill are quite comfy with modeled results when it suits them. This is why, again, all modeling is bad.
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We’re used to treating models with 1-2 vaguely defined (or intentionally skewed) scenarios as predictive of complex policies in world that no longer operates by some of the old rules. But models can be useful for things other than prediction, if they are used correctly.
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It’s a dodge to say, in effect, “welp, we can’t predict the future, so why not take a risk” - not when the non-climate stakes for water, species and communities are so high. We don’t need modelers to go out of business. We need them to be better at helping us navigate reality.
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Tony Dutzik retweeted
Proponents arguing that Title IV isn't a serious risk are having it both ways. It can't be all powerful against Trump and a wet noodle against presidents that follow. To the contrary, the last word goes to whoever gives permission/authorization first. Trump bats first.
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Tony Dutzik retweeted
I rarely take to X anymore, but the clean energy crowd still hangs out here I guess, so here goes... here's why BAJAA Title IV’s project certainty provisions are dangerously sloppy and an insane transfer of power to Trump and corporations.
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Would love to see a response to this analysis of “permitting reform’s” potential corrosive effect on *all* federal regulation beyond “no, it won’t.” jeremysymons.substack.com/p/…
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A provision of "permitting reform" that transportation folks should be aware of: The bill eliminates environmental review for repair or replacement projects in the "immediate vicinity" of existing infrastructure that do not increase capacity by >20%. epw.senate.gov/public/_cache…
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I am not a lawyer and so can't give you a definitive take on how it'd be interpreted by FHWA or courts. But it *seems* to allow multi-billion dollar projects to escape any real accounting of their impacts on the environment and communities. If that's true, that's a problem.
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