The foundation of the last metals supercycle (2002 - 2011) was the rapid industrialisation of China… new cities, skyscrapers, railways, cars, power grids and the mass creation of a new middle class. Back then, it was a DEMAND story. The supercycle we are in today, is bigger, more global… and what makes it different is that it’s a SUPPLY story. The economies that will be left behind are those that are unable to secure their own critical minerals supply chain. The statement made in this article by Canada’s Natural Resources Minister, Tim Hodgson, comes after @BloombergNEF’s forecast that copper needs $332 BILLION of new mine investment to avoid a deficit starting in 2028… otherwise we face a shortfall of about 20 million tonnes (44% of demand) by 2050. We are in discussions with other authoritative sources that tell us that the @Bloomberg estimate is significantly too conservative. We will bring attention to these studies when they are published. New mines take decades and decades to find, permit, finance AND THEN build. One major obstacle for projects, especially those located in western economies, is permitting. Unfortunately, there is no quick fix... and permitting should not be rushed. At least, the growing panic for metals is forcing into public debate the topic of where ON EARTH these metals will come from. As they say at the Colorado School of Mines: Earth first... we will mine the other planets later. financialpost.com/commoditie…

At a time when the world needs critical raw materials most, copper production is on track for its first annual decline since 2017. Mining is a difficult business. Even with copper prices at all-time highs, new mine supply remains limited. Lengthy permitting timelines mean that, in most parts of the world, new mine supply takes decades, not years, to reach the market.

Bloomberg is seeing the bigger picture. The changes we’re seeing in the copper market are structural and here to stay. Supply is as tight as it’s ever been, while we’re in the foothills of a major demand boom. New data center demand is only exacerbating the issue. Analysts project copper demand will rise 50% to 42 million metric tons by 2040. We’re not even close to being able to supply that much copper today. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Copper is dirt cheap when you price it against the companies consuming it. The four largest hyperscalers alone are set to spend $700B+ on capex this year. A single 50 MW data center swallows 2,000+ tonnes of copper, and some US builds are pushing 1.2 GW. Do the math.