GarrettZ (@GarrettZ) header
GarrettZ (@GarrettZ) profile picture

cryptographic currency speculator

Joined June 2008
Photo by GarrettZ (@GarrettZ)Photo by GarrettZ (@GarrettZ)Photo by GarrettZ (@GarrettZ)Photo by GarrettZ (@GarrettZ)Photo by GarrettZ (@GarrettZ)Photo by GarrettZ (@GarrettZ)Photo by GarrettZ (@GarrettZ)Photo by GarrettZ (@GarrettZ)Photo by GarrettZ (@GarrettZ)Photo by GarrettZ (@GarrettZ)
GarrettZ retweeted
Strap in and consider this my official update on the kinetiq:native thesis, specifically regarding @Enter_Elysium. Best way to do this is to refute some arguments I've seen: 1. "L2's are parasitic" It's very lazy to compare Elysium to other L2s from the past. Robinhood Chain has generated a little over $50m in fees, of which $5m went to Arbitrum, and a whopping...$70k went to $ETH blob fees. HyperEVM hyperliquid:native fees are burnt, whereas sequencer fees on Elysium go to kinetiq:native buys and builders (more on this later), but HyperEVM fees only account less than 1% of Hyperliquid total revenue. Papertrade is actually much more directly parasitic to hyperliquid:native; HyperEVM fees are peanuts even if Elysium vamped them entirely. An under appreciated dynamic that a lot of people don't know is that HyperEVM USDC applies to AQAv2 hyperliquid:native revenue too, and USDC on Elysium will as well. Assuming the HyperEVM burns around $25k of hyperliquid:native a day, every additional $1b USDC that Elysium onboards in TVL would burn 4x that same amount due to AQAv2. For reference, Solana has ~$7.5bn USDC and Base has $5b. Robinhood chain is predominantly USDG, which they monetize on, and ETH obviously gets nothing from. Imagine if Base contributed to $175m (3.5% of $5b) of value accrual to $ETH via their USDC TVL...maybe my $5k/7k $ETH calls would actually hit then 🙃 Beyond this, the entire selling point of Elysium is that it sits adjacent to HyperCore. propAMM's are functionally impossible on HyperEVM now due to the 1s block time (amongst other reasons). Additionally, on the HyperEVM, you can only read Hypercore price, not order book depth. As a result, Solana does 25-50x the spot trading volume that Hypercore/HyperEVM handle. If Elysium can eat even a moderate chunk of on chain spot volume from Solana, especially in tokenized RWAs, the implications for corresponding hedging flows to Hyperliquid are enormous. Elysium explicity enables net new flow and TVL to Hyperliquid, both of which are very accretive to hyperliquid:native itself. I would not be surprised if Elysium directly contributes an additional low 9 figure ARR for hyperliquid:native in 2027. 2. "L2's are bad investments and down only tokens" As stated above, $ARB made about $5m so far from Robinhood Chain. Of that amount, a whopping...zero dollars made it to tokenholders. No buybacks, no burns, nothing. 50% of Elysium sequencer fees are directed at kinetiq:native buybacks. Even if you assume that Elysium only generates half the current sequencer fees of the current ghost town that is the HyperEVM, that'd still more than double their current revenue. Currently, kinetiq:native buybacks as a % of market cap are about 1.5%, compared to 4-5% for hyperliquid:native. If Elysium generates only half of the sequencer fees of the current HyperEVM ($5m/yr), they'd be retiring token off the market at the same rate that hyperliquid:native does relative to market cap. If Elysium can do closer to 50-75% of Base annualized sequencer fees ($30m), they'd be doing kinetiq:native buybacks at double the rate of hyperliquid:native as a % of market cap. This is completely negating a likely increase in kHYPE TVL and other revenue streams (which there are numerous), like from launchpads like @AscendLaunch. Ascend actually deserves their own section because they've commited to doing 30% of gross revenue as kinetiq:native buy/burns (50% to buys, 60% of that to burn). $PONS has generated $200m revenue in the last 2 months, but is currently only annualizing about $125m revenue, so we'll use a very conservative ~10% of the more conservative number. That'd add another $4m of kinetiq:native buybacks, which brings buyback yield/mcap well into the double digit %, over double hyperliquid:native. 3. "Why would there be activity on Elysium if there wasn't on the HyperEVM?" Probably because the HyperEVM operates at the speed of smoke signals and has 0 support from Hyperliquid. You have @Uniswap, @fomo, @Pumpfun etc all announcing integrations and deployments on Elysium day 1 after ignoring the HyperEVM all this time. @0xOmnia and the @Kinetiq_xyz team is putting on a master class in distribution, and you're seeing it play out this week. Jeff and company are focusing on building the best perps platform in the world, and that's great, but this hands off approach has come at the expense of any support or curation of an on chain ecosystem. That's left a massive gap that other chains have filled, but Elysium can bring all that activity back into the "house of all finance". Having a team that's fully dedicated to making this a reality will look nothing like the lack of attention the HyperEVM received. 4. "It'll be a flash in the pan memecoin chain and die out just like RHC activity has" This is more speculative and it's hard to say. Elysium could have an epic and unsustainable PvElysium memecoin season by inheriting some of the wealth effect from both hyperliquid:native and kinetiq:native. Obviously this would absolutely moon kinetiq:native from sequencer fees/Ascend revenue, but that's shortlived. Lively trenches aren't mutually exclusive with a real and innovative DeFi ecosystem though. As I mentioned before, Elysium will be uniquely able to plug in with, leverage, and read Hyperliquid orderbooks and liquidity. DeFi applications that couldn't be built anywhere else are made possible here. A performant general purpose blockchain adjacent to HyperCore is the natural home to propAMM and HFT arbitrage against HIP3, which incentivizes deeply liquid spot RWA markets, which enables much higher LTV lending, which enables unique structured products and DeFi primitives to be built. I do imagine that the trenches are built before more serious innovation comes about, but an important note here is that builders are getting 25% of sequencer fees as well. What builder wouldn't want to deploy on a new ecosystem, adjacent to the most successful app in crypto history, with a built in rev share agreement with the chain itself? Based on my conversations with Ascend and Montra, lots of serious teams want to build, not just memecoin deployers. TLDR: It's not that complicated guys. kinetiq:native is a $120m mcap token that has a very clear path to buyback % yields multiples higher than hyperliquid:native, with an unprecedented ecosystem flywheel. It's both beta to hyperliquid:native and enhances the hyperliquid:native bull case. It might be the most asymmetric bet in crypto right now, and it's not conditional on some long shot thesis, just that there will be a large on chain ecosystem for the most important app in crypto. Maybe it's a flop and a sell the news event on launch...or maybe it's all the best parts of Base/Hood sequencer fees combined with the revenue streams of $PUMP, $CAKE, solana:jtojtomepa8beP8AuQc6eXt5FriJwfFMwQx2v2f9mCL, ethereum:0x5a98fcbea516cf06857215779fd812ca3bef1b32 etc and heads towards billions of TVL and 9 figure annual revenue. If you pattern match too hard to "L2 bad" or "HyperEVM sucks", it's from a place of being too 🏳️‍🌈🐻-pilled and/or lazy research.
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GarrettZ retweeted
A wild @Pumpfun has entered Elysium. The Pump is going interplanetary. e/acc
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GarrettZ retweeted
Pumpfun x @HyperliquidX Perps are live on the Pumpfun app! Long or short crypto, stocks & commodities on the biggest onchain perps engine, straight from your USDC balance. No bridging required. Learn more 👇
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GarrettZ retweeted
Uniswap is coming to Elysium 🦄
On Elysium, @Uniswap awaits. e/acc
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GarrettZ retweeted
I've been asked probably hundreds of times what the difference in scale between Elysium and HyperEVM will be like: Enjoy :] p.s. ask anyone building on Elysium testnet how it feels and you'll be quite pleased e/acc
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GarrettZ retweeted
You can now launch supply-controlled AI agents paired with ORBIO, funded by the people who want them and backed by AI market makers from day one. Launching them straight from the Orbio launchpad, soon.
We're proud to welcome @orbiodotso as the first launchpad building on Mosh. Mosh will empower Orbio builders with better market structure & tokenization while the Orbio team empowers them with compute, distribution, and tooling.
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MAYBE I WAS WRONG ABOUT BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGY I wrote about how I always used to make fun of the guys who said things like "Bitcoin is speculative, but the underlying blockchain technology is interesting." And now I think maybe they kinda had a point.
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A note on transferability. Papertrade is a complicated primitive, and managing it from a risk standpoint is a complicated problem. The PAPER token is far more integrated into the economics of the primitive than most tokens are in their respective protocols today, and, broadly, was designed to act as a counter insolvency incentive coupled with a rebate mechanism to losing traders. Market makers and exchanges are by far the two most profitable businesses in crypto, and our goal was to try and externalise as much of their margins back to users as possible. We are now just over a week into the life of papertrade and we are becoming increasingly confident that this is both possible, but also a likely outcome as agentic led software becomes the norm. As it stands, the paper token traded as a perp becomes a leveraged bet on bankroll solvency - and being able to short bankroll solvency materially changes the payoff curve of a manipulation attack. The target number goes from the bankroll, to the bankroll + short side exposure on paper. We can, and do limit bankroll size specifically to control this payoff curve and ensure it never becomes existentially problematic, but external perp markets are not something we would have any control over if left to float of their own accord. For example, if our bankroll is $10m, an attack costing $15m manipulating the price of bitcoin or ether is not viable. You simply lose money. If however you were also able to put on $10m of PAPER short side exposure, suddenly an attack costing $15m is very viable indeed. If we were to make the token transferable at this point, we are confident we would quickly enter a state too dangerous to allow any material exposure to be taken on papertrade, an end result that benefits no party beyond the wolves who have done the math on the short and are waiting in the wings with sharpened knives. We would also like to thank the various perps teams who have reached out about pre-market listings for their understanding and patience regarding this issue, and especially to the paragon team who, despite jumping the gun on us, have behaved with the utmost integrity and transparency once a dialogue was opened. Perps on PAPER will always act as a self-limiting exposure ceiling for a token with this type of utility, and we think it would be a shame to limit the growth of papertrade to the extent that allowing perps would necessitate. As such, at this juncture we do not have plans to allow off-contract token transferability. Structurally, papertrade is limited by the quality of the data it receives from hyperliquid, but we strongly believe that hyperliquid has a very large part to play in the future of global exchanges, and expect their books to continue to thicken and strengthen over time. A note on fees. Papertrade launched with a deadband fee from entry of 0.2bps. This means you don't earn anything until the price has moved by 0.002% in your favour. Over the months before launch, we played around with many different curves and fee structures affecting exclusively positions closed very close to entry price in order to try and devise a structure that removed the edge against the bankroll low time frame scalp bots have, whilst also minimally impacting the traders around which and for whom the product was devised. We were never able to find anything we were absolutely happy with and so decided to stay with the 0.2bp deadband fee through launch. This has however meant we have had to be very restrictive when it came to certain parameters, such as OI caps. Now, however, we have enough live data to fully understand exactly which strategies work, and to make the necessary changes to stop them. The changes we are making will have an on hours and off hours fee mode to account for the relative differences in liquidity the hyperliquid books see between these two time periods, and the ease with which low time frame moves are signalled. The changes we are making will only affect positions closed within 6bps of entry (0.06%) in on hours, and 10bps (0.1%) in off hours. Any trades closed above these threshold price shifts will see no change to their fees at all. On a look back to launch basis, these changes affect the profitability of bot strategies roughly 15x more than they do normal traders, for whom a very small proportion of overall winnings come from within this band. These changes should serve to flatten much of the edge our microfee structure necessarily creates on low time frames, and will help with long term exchange sustainability. This should hopefully allow us to open up parameters such as OI caps a little more so those of you who wish to can put on the size you want to, when you want to. It is possible these changes are still too lax, and that further revisions to this structure may be necessary going forwards. If so, we will notify users ahead of time. A note on paper tokenomics. In conjunction with the fee changes, we will also be implementing a change to the token issuance curve. Going forward, every $1 lost mints a fixed share of PAPER's supply at that moment, roughly 0.1% of supply per $1M lost (the exact number depends on the mint rate at the time the contracts are upgraded). PAPER minting in and near insolvency will also change, switching from a flat 100 per $1 of loss, to a time weighted multiplier on the curve growing over time, effectively acting as the house running a discounted auction on its own future cash flows. This change also removes the risk of the paper-mint-straddle-attack, temporarily pushing the protocol insolvent by closing only the winning side of a large straddle position and then attempting to mint as much paper as possible. In the immediate term these changes will only have a very subtle effect on PAPER minting, but in the long run will structurally change the outlook of the system beyond the first few weeks, serving to slowly dilute out older holders and leaving more recent users with an advantage. Reconstituting the PAPER system into something much closer to the exchange rakeback it was intended to be. We have been very reticent to touch this particular aspect of the system for obvious reasons, but ultimately we believe that these changes provide all users with the optionality to take a smaller piece of a potentially much larger pie than the current dynamic might necessarily allow. Other, miscellaneous notes. These contract upgrades will include a few other contract changes, including the addition of builder codes so that builders can utilise papertrade in whatever capacity they choose to. This will be a whitelist only to begin with and we will have more for you later in the week on where/how this will be rolled out. A small change to contract permissions on the reward distributor and a change on how below bust closes are processed by the exchange are also included, largely to block gas griefing attacks. These changes will be pushed to docs in full over the coming day, and we will further announce once the changes are queued into the timelock pending final security passes, scheduled to go live 24 hours after that point. Final note. We'd like to thank everyone that has tried out papertrade over the last 10 days. It has been a labour of love building this product and both of us have been taken aback at all of the positive feedback we have received. We'd also like to thank all those of you who have spent considerable time musing on the system we have built, and much of your advice has been taken onboard and will likely affect the colour of what papertrade becomes going forward. We know some of these changes will be unpopular with some, but we would not be making them if we did not feel them to be absolutely necessary. - blurr, jez
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If you hold a large spot $HYPE position and want to hedge it without selling, @silhouette_ex RFQ lets you open the full short in one print instead of slicing it into a book that’s watching you. Say a holder has 128K $HYPE staked or locked and wants to neutralise price risk. At a $78.02 mid, that’s about $10M of short perp exposure, which is a lot to push through any order book in one go: → Request: The holder asks for a sell of 128K HYPE-PERP with a 30-second auction window. Nothing touches the book, so the market doesn’t see the hedge coming. → Quotes: Three makers bid for the full size at $77.93, $77.87 and $77.81, each with its order already signed, so none of them can pull back once a quote is accepted. → Fill: The holder takes $77.93, 12 bps under mid. The maker’s bid posts on @HyperliquidX book and the sell fills against it, which locks in about $12K of cost, known before signing. → Book alternative: The same order as a market sell would walk the bids down to an average near $77.74, about 36 bps or $36K, and leave a visible print trail for anyone front-running the rest. → Result: Spot and perp offset, the short sits in the holder’s own Hyperliquid account, and nothing is deposited with Silhouette. The holder keeps staking yield while the price risk is gone.
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were building out new products and new features as fast as we can while at the same time sailing a brand new conceptual ship into the great unknown theres so much to do
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GarrettZ retweeted
U.S. banks hold $11T+ in undrawn commitments. Promise looping is live on LCC, bringing fractional reserves to capital commitments in crypto Earn promise fees on up to 6.25x your net worth: +7.8% APY on top of your DeFi assets deployed elsewhere, funded via @Morpho debt if called
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GarrettZ retweeted
Orbio Grants is open: up to $25,000 for teams building useful products on onchain inference rails. Apply.
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GarrettZ retweeted
One of my biggest takeaways from TOKEN2049 Singapore is that, even among the most sophisticated Hyperliquid users and holders, very few understand what precompiles are or how powerful this technology really is. And of course, most don’t realize that products like Papertrade are only possible thanks to precompiles. To put it simply: imagine if BNB Chain were connected onchain to Binance, or Base to Coinbase, allowing smart contracts to transfer assets and read exchange data directly onchain. That would be huge, right? Well, HyperEVM already does this with HyperCore. However, its current precompiles expose only a limited amount of data, and writing to HyperCore is still slow. @Enter_Elysium is fixing this by rebuilding the precompile layer from scratch, exposing significantly more HyperCore data and enabling much faster writes than HyperEVM. If you’ve got any crazy ideas for what to build with this tech on Elysium, hit me up.
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UPDATE: I can confirm that the Ledger supply chain is compromised in Europe as well. @Ledger should initiate an immediate product recall to protect users. I just purchased a second device from a different Mediamarkt location today, recorded the unboxing process, and discovered spyware once again (video linked in the second tweet). The device was compromised in the exact same manner, featuring identical modifications (such as additional cables and an LTE module). This indicates its a widespread issue rather than an isolated incident, potentially affecting Ledger inventory across MediaMarkt and Saturn stores throughout Europe (comprising over 1,000 stores across 11 countries). My initial hypothesis was that these devices were returns that looked unopened to the employees and were just sold again as new however, a MediaMarkt employee confirmed that the device I purchased was not a return, and that returned Ledgers are sent directly back to the manufacturer rather than resold. Store records show the inventory originated from Aqipa GmbH. While Ledger's CTO was unsure if Aqipa serves as the direct distributor between Ledger and MediaMarkt, it appears to be the case. Given that Aqipa distributes across Europe, any physical retail store receiving stock through them may be at risk. I sent the first ledger to mark and the second one is going to ledger now, so that they can analyse it. If you purchased a ledger from anyone other than the official ledger store, make sure to check your device!!
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GarrettZ retweeted
it was actually insane just watching the $IMD agent swarm audit the @imdusd repository and then launch $INFER multiple agents reviewing code, catching issues, refining contracts and writing tests before deploying to mainnet
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GarrettZ retweeted
Bought an imd nft and will be running a node Exploring how @orbiodotso can add value to imd eco
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PSA the ledger incident isn't limited to Asia This is a device purchased in store from an official reseller in Europe (a legitimate device doesn't have any of these cables as can be seen in picture 2) This even seems to be an old version of the 'spy implant' even though the device was purchased a couple of weeks ago. The newer versions usually hide the implant by the screen so it's easier to miss What's interesting is that this compromised ledger never transfered funds to an exploiter. Either the device didn't work or they were waiting for a more widespread usage of the comprised devices? If you own a ledger that didn't directly come from the ledger online store make sure to not just rely on the software genuinely check by ledger but to actually open up the ledger yourself to make sure its original, again there are reported cases in Asia, south America and now Europe as well. @MagicalTux made some useful videos on how to open the ledger and what to look for.
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GarrettZ retweeted
We raised $1.2M to hand agents the means of computation. We're building the rails for agents to provision their own compute, hardware and first-class private infrastructure.
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GarrettZ retweeted
[ ZOOMER ] CITRINI RESEARCH PUBLISHES ARTICLE ON INTERSECTION BETWEEN AGENTIC AI AND CRYPTO, ALONGSIDE THEIR INVESTMENT BASKET: BLOG
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