Garytrader

NYG @ PHI is the biggest Kalshi/Poly vs DraftKings gap left on the Week 9 board. DK no-vig: PHI 40.0% (+140) Kalshi mid: 37.5¢ Polymarket: 37.5¢ ~2.5 pts. Exchanges agree with each other; the book is the outlier. Yesterday’s BUF@MIN gap already converged. This one hasn’t. Let’s see if it does at some point

TB @ CHI (SNF): the sportsbook walked all the way to the exchange. DK CHI no-vig: 63.1% opener (−192) → 68.1% (−245) → 71.4% (−290) → 72.2% now (−305) Kalshi CHI: sitting 71–72¢ all week (mid 71.5, last 72) Poly: 71.5¢ Spread: −3.5 → −6 Bucs just blanked ATL 16–0 with 0 completions and 324 rush yards. Season: 168.6 rush YPG vs 131.4 net pass. CHI is pricing the pass game that didn’t show up. Let’s see how it plays out

The market dumped 11 points on the Heat overnight and I want the receipt. Polymarket has Miami at 28.5% (down 11 in a day). Kalshi went Warriors 63¢ to 72¢ with ~238K contracts in 24h, Heat 38¢ to 30¢. Sportsbook median on Golden State is about 71%. Double-digit move into tip. What broke that I missed?

What % do you give the Jags tonight? Kalshi has Jacksonville at 81-82¢, Polymarket 81.5%, sportsbooks around 80.5%. The spread opened BAL -4.5 and is now JAX -10, and BetQL has 76% of the money (71% of tickets) on Jacksonville to cover. On Kalshi, ~550K contracts traded in the Ravens market in 24h while they sit at 18¢. Drop a number under 80 if you think this market's too sure.

The market is buying Man United at Old Trafford tonight, and I don't get it. Kalshi has United 42¢ to 45¢ in 24h. Polymarket is at 45%, up 4 pts. This is a side winless in 9, 17th in the PL, with Opta giving them a 22% relegation shot. Weirder: more Kalshi volume traded on Roma (522K) than United (434K), and the price still moved toward United. Who's paying 45¢ for this team? Tell me what I'm missing.

One thumb moved a TNF line 12 points, and I think the market still isn't done. Jaguars @ Ravens opened BAL -4.5 at DraftKings. It's now JAX -7.5, and Borgata is at -8.5. Kalshi has the Jags at 80¢ (42¢ a day ago), Polymarket 79%. Is -8.5 too much for a team that just got Lamar's backup hurt too, or not enough? Give me your number.

The market buried the Ravens a week too early. Polymarket had Baltimore at 46.5% to win the AFC North a week ago. After one blown 13-0 lead to the Bengals, they're at 22.5%, and Kalshi has them at 22-23¢. Cincy is now the favorite at 42% (45-46¢ on Kalshi). Lamar is back today at Buffalo. Books have Bills -3, and Kalshi has the Ravens at 38-39¢ to win. A 24-point crash on a game Lamar didn't play in. Tell me I'm wrong.

The hottest inflation print in months, and the prediction markets got LESS hawkish. Make it make sense. December Fed hike: Kalshi went from 77-78¢ before Thursday's PCE print to 69-70¢ now. Polymarket went from 76.5% to 70%. FedWatch snapshots after PCE (3.6%) and GDP (3.4%) were showing 82-86%. That's a 12-15 point gap. I think the prediction markets are the ones that are wrong. Who's taking the other side?

Without Anthony Edwards last season, Jaden McDaniels: • 18.7 PPG (13.8 with him) • 33.4 min (31.3) • 7/16 over 17.5 pts • MIN 10-6 This season: 15.0 PPG, 0/4 over 17.5. Polymarket's 17.5 line is thin. The question is how much of Ant's 33 PPG he absorbs. I don’t think he can pick up the slack

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The Bears are priced like an NFC contender and a division underdog at the same time, and one of those is wrong. Polymarket has Chicago at 14.5% to win the NFC (up 2 points this week), second only to the 49ers at 25%. Kalshi's NFC market has them at 12–13¢. But Kalshi's NFC North market has the Bears at just 25–26¢, behind Minnesota at 40–42¢, even though the Vikings are only about 10% to win the conference. They're 5-2, just added Jeffery Simmons, and are reportedly talking to the Chargers about Khalil Mack. What's your number for Chicago winning the North?

Kalshi is too high on PSG, and I think Polymarket has it right. Kalshi has PSG at 19–20¢ to win the Champions League, while Polymarket has 16.5%. That's about a 3-point gap on the same team, and Barcelona sits at 22–23 on both. Kvaratskhelia is out after ACL surgery, and Dembélé and Marquinhos are hurt. Yes, they just beat Barça 4-2. So which venue is wrong?

The market is overreacting to OKC's injury report, and I'm buying the dip. Polymarket cut the Thunder's 2027 title odds from about 23.5% to 17.5% in one week. Kalshi has them at 15–16¢, down from 18¢. They're 4-1 while playing without Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace. The Spurs are about 22% on both venues. Is a healthy OKC really a 5-point dog to San Antonio? Tell me I'm wrong.

Four games in, some prop lines are still priced off last season:
• Sabonis o13.5 reb: 4/4 (was 5/19 last year)
• LaVine o21.5 pts: 4/4 (was 13/39)
• Ty Jerome o23.5 pts: 3/4 (was 2/15)
• Harden o17.5 pts: 1/4 (was 58/70)
Small samples, but which ones are real?
Time will tell!

Three NBA games tonight. I lined up DraftKings (no-vig), Kalshi, and Polymarket on every one: CLE-ATL: 51.1 / 50.5 / 50.5 SAC-NO: 66.9 / 67 / 67.5 MEM-POR: 70.5 / 71.5 / 71.5 All within about a point. On quiet nights the exchanges and the books are basically one market. Love when things are in sync!

This week the NBA named Kalshi and Polymarket its preferred prediction-market partners. A couple of days later, Saquon Barkley said the NFL made him sell his Polymarket stake. Two leagues looking at the same markets and landing in opposite places. Seems like the NFL is lagging behind!

Kalshi repriced Anthony Edwards' knee news in real time. MIN to beat GSW tonight: • Kalshi before: ~78¢ • Kalshi now: ~60¢ • DK no-vig (MIN -162): 59.3% An ~18-pt haircut for a guy averaging 33.3 PPG. Exchange and book now agree within a point. Crazy how fast the odds change, gotta love it!

Kalshi/Polymarket vs DraftKings no-vig, all 12 NBA games tonight: 10 of 12 within 1 pt. The 2 outliers are both Kalshi: • ATL 57.5¢ vs DK 59.3% (Poly 59.5¢) • CLE 78.5¢ vs DK 76.6% (Poly 77.5¢) Kalshi's Heat side has ~86k contracts traded vs ~18k on ATL. Let’s see which one ends up right this time!

The market has Warsh holding today and hiking in six weeks. I'm not buying the second half yet. Hold at 2 PM: Kalshi 95¢, Polymarket 94.85%. A 25 bp hike in December: Kalshi 75¢, Polymarket 76.5%. That's a lot of conviction for a chair who likes light forward guidance. If he doesn't lean into December at 2:30, that 75 is the most mispriced number on the board. Where would you set it?

Kalshi and Polymarket can't agree on the East, and I think Kalshi is wrong about Philly. 2027 NBA title: Sixers 12¢ on Kalshi, 10.25% on Polymarket. Pistons 3¢ on Kalshi, 4.4% on Polymarket. Detroit just beat Philly 106-93 and outrebounded them 54-37. Kalshi still prices the Sixers at 4x the Pistons. Polymarket says closer to 2.3x. One of these books is asleep. Which one?