That late tropical impact correlation I use is meant to be factored in. It's not the end-all. But given the mean 500 mb in strong El Niños for December and what the Euro is showing starting Thanksgiving ( target period: Thanksgiving to Christmas), it certainly is much different. The Stratwarm adds to the mitigating factor, and both can be true without one being wrong. In fact, most of those years that are analogous with a late hit have early-season negative AO's In any case here is the mean of strong el nino Decembers, and the 2 weeks starting Thanksgiving. I think you can agree, there is a difference. Europe better have their energy situation ready