Chief Economist @EYnews, @EY_US, @EY_Parthenon. Previously Chief Economist @OxfordEconomics, @IHSMarkit. Father of 3. Husband of 1. 🇺🇸 & 🇧🇪. Views are mine
New York, NY
Joined September 2011
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🎃Hawkish Halloween Hold
🛑 We expect the #Fed will hold the fed funds rate target range unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% at the upcoming FOMC meeting...
🎙️ The press conference will be a delicate balancing exercise...
Our full preview via @EY_Parthenon lnkd.in/p/g9AydYDY
For much of this year, Treasuries offered investors little of their traditional protection when technology stocks stumbled. This week, that role has bounced back sharply. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Pending sales of existing US homes fell to a record low in September as high mortgage rates continued to weigh on demand bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🏘️US housing starts plunge 5.2% m/m in September!
⚠️Follows 5.9% & 4.9% plunge in Aug/Jul to 2nd lowest pace post-pandemic (1.2mn units saar).
🏠Single-family construction is depressed
🔻-4.6% m/m
⬆️2.6% y/y
🌆Multi-fam starts plunge to 5-mo low
🔻-6.7% m/m
🔻 -24.9% y/y
French government bonds dropped after a weekend of violent unrest, underlining the tension between protesters upset over the cost of living and a government that can’t pay to keep the peace
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
#China Puts Growth Back on Target With Stimulus Push, Export Boom: GDP 4.5% y/y in Q3
A split between a struggling consumer economy & a booming export sector widened further in September:
▶️Industrial production +5.5% y/y
▶️Retail +1.1% y/y
▶️Property infrastructure -20.6% y/y
⚠️Strong import price inflation in September
📈Import prices +1.1% m/m
📈Fuel +4.8%
📈Nonfuel +0.7%
🔥Import price inflation: 8.1% y/y: fastest since Jul '22
🔥Nonfuel import inflation: 6.0%: fastest since Apr '22
🔥Capital gds import inflation 8.4%: fastest ever: AI led
Gregory Daco retweeted
The September CPI and PPI translate into a core PCE projection of around 0.34%, which would be the highest monthly reading since January.
That would push the 12-month change to 3.1% (from 3% in August) and the 3-month annualized rate to 2.9% (from 2.0%).
⚠️Import prices +0.3% m/m in June, despite -0.4% fuel import prices
👀Monitor closely as nonfuel import price inflation has risen to 4.2% y/y: highest since Jun 22
📈Capital gds prices +5.7% y/y (all-time high): AI-led investment pull
📈Consumer prices: exporters recoup tariffs
What wasn't said...
#Fed Chair Warsh did not give any indication of a possible rate hike with markets pricing 14% odds. In our opinion, this along with recent key Fed policymakers' remarks points to a "hawkish hold" at the October #FOMC meeting
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Gregory Daco retweeted
We are LIVE at 9AM ET with @JanetOnTheMoney!
GUESTS:
- @Greenbackd
- @RCWhalen
- @MarkZandi
- @GregDaco
🔊Tune in on @SXMBusiness🔊
🔥The PPI #inflation report was ugly because of the magnitude of price increases AND the breadth
1⃣ Energy main factor driving largest goods price increase EVER
2⃣ Immediate diesel passthrough to airfare & truck transportation prices
3⃣ Margins also surged (machinery, hotels)
🔥PPI #inflation come in hot
🔥Headline #PPI +1.3% m/m -- fastest since Mar '22
🔶Core +0.5%
🔥Gds +2.6%
🍳Food 1.2%
⛽️Energy 10.8%
🔥Core 0.3%
🔥Svc +0.8%
🚚Transport 3.4%
⚖️Trade 1.4%
🔥PPI: 6.3% y/y (+0.7pt)
🔥Core: 5.0% (+0.2)
⚠️US consumers are still spending as we approach the #holiday season with low unemployment, healthy balance sheets and wealth accumulation in the driver's seat, but higher inflation is leading to depressed morale & income erosion, capping inflation-adjusted outlays
#Retail sales cool in Sep
✅ Sales +0.8% m/m
🔶 Inflation-adj +0.1%
✅Core sales +0.1%
🔶Volumes -0%
⛽ Gas 6.4%
🛋 Furn 1.3%
👨🍳 Rest/bar 1.1%
⚕️ Health 0.7%
🎮 Elec 0.6%
🛒 Groc 0.4%
💻 Online 0.3%
🚗 Auto 0.2%
👗 Cloth 0%
🏬 Merch -0.1%
⚽ Sports -0.5%
🏠 Build mat -0.6%
