Greg Postel retweeted
An early look at forecast high temperatures on Halloween shows well above normal departures in shades of pumpkin orange across much of the central and eastern U.S. Check your local forecast at weather.gov
Greg Postel retweeted
Half dollar sized snowflakes falling this morning near Melbeta, Nebraska @KNEBStormCenter @NWSCheyenne #newx
Greg Postel retweeted
Appears #StormBoelo peaked around 948mb, exceptionally close to the UK's October record of 947.9mb set just last year.
Maybe somewhere set a new record?
Greg Postel retweeted
Morning all!
As #StormBoelo pulls away and pressure rises, we're seeing some big gusts (80+ Stornoway, 123 mph over Cairngorm) out of the NW.
Fair amount of damage with road and bridge closures.
Take care!
Greg Postel retweeted
I donāt know what the state record hail size is in Arizona but this is nearly an inch wide than my iPhone. West side of Sedona.
Greg Postel retweeted
Tornado warned storm coming into Prescott Valley right now #azwx
Greg Postel retweeted
No blog this week but if you're only focusing on El NiƱo you're missing a lot. We have an unprecedented strong this early Scandinavian-Ural block that's causing an unusually early weakening of the #PolarVortex. I admit to be struggling what to make of it & could go different ways
Greg Postel retweeted
Very glad our work on WeatherNext Cyclones (WN-C) at @GoogleDeepMind and @GoogleResearch proved useful for forecasting Hurricane Isaias. We were also pleased to see WN-Cās 1,000 member ensemble being used by meteorologists to help assess the full range of possibilities for Isaiasās track and intensity. Such large ensembles are one of the benefits of ML weather models, which are more efficient than traditional physics models.
There was debate among meteorologists whether wind shear and dry air would prevent Isaias from rapidly intensifying. WN-C predicted a more easterly path away from these weakening factors, with a >50% chance of a major hurricane from Oct 6th onwards, which steadily grew in confidence until Isaias eventually did reach Category 3 status three days later on Oct 9th, shortly before landfall.
Our paper on the front cover of @Nature last month evaluated WN-C against the leading physics models across more than 200 tropical cyclones globally from 2023-2025. We found that WN-C achieves ~1 day of additional useful lead time for cyclone track and intensity (an advance that typically took a decade to achieve). Getting both track and intensity right proved crucial for predicting the true threat of Isaias, and though this was just N=1 tropical cyclone, itās great to see our breakthrough helping to protect lives and livelihoods in an operational setting.
Read the paper here: nature.com/articles/s41586-0ā¦
Last week, Hurricane Isaias made landfall in the Florida Panhandle. Our thoughts are with everyone affected and with the recovery efforts still underway. Earlier and more accurate forecasting can help protect communities by giving them more time to prepare, and we are grateful that Googleās WeatherNext model was able to assist the @NWSNHC 's expert forecasters.
Based on initial evaluations, here's how our model supported the response to #Isaias:
- Tracking the Hurricaneās Path: WeatherNext was the most accurate model on the stormās track. While traditional physics models predicted landfall closer to New Orleans, WeatherNext correctly predicted a path further east. This allowed NHC forecasters to highlight the potential for wind and storm surge impacts in the Florida Panhandle from their very first forecast.
- More Time to Prepare: Up to three days before landfall, our model consistently predicted its eventual location in the Florida Panhandle to within 60 km or less, supporting the NHC as they honed in on a track toward the Florida Panhandle and issued hurricane watches and warnings to give officials in Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi more time to prepare.
- Early Indications about Intensity: Early on, WeatherNext accurately predicted the intensification to a major hurricane. Alongside the regional hurricane models HWRF and HMON, WeatherNextās intensity forecasts helped NHC forecasters to predict that the Isaias would approach the coast as a category 2 hurricane from the very first advisory.
Giving communities more time and more accurate warnings is critical for protecting lives and livelihoods. While model performance varies from storm to storm, Isaias reflects our broader findings. In our recent @Nature paper co-authored with NHC forecasters, evaluating 200+ global tropical cyclones, we found our model provides ~1 day of additional lead time for both track and intensity.
Itās been an honor for the @GoogleDeepMind and @GoogleResearch teams to work alongside NHC forecasters. By combining AI, physics models, satellite data, and the crucial expertise of meteorologists, we're excited to keep pushing the boundaries of forecasting to help protect communities.
Greg Postel retweeted
Close range tornado intercept near Woods Crossroads South Carolina! @NWSCharleston @ryanhallyall @wxwiseapp
Greg Postel retweeted
.@MatthewCappucci intercepted a tornado at close range in Newington, Georgia about an hour ago. This is the same storm that is producing a destructive tornado near Allendale, South Carolina!
Greg Postel retweeted
Power crews are either already here or descending on the Florida coast this morning to bring power back online. Here in Destin we have limited cell service and no power.
Greg Postel retweeted
The wind is getting ludicrous. Inner eyewall is closing in. Destin, Florida 6:20pm @MaxVelocityWX @WxFront #flwx #isaiah






























