FLAD Visiting Professor @GUGovt. I study how parties adapt and fracture under grassroots and youth wing pressure, & how it affects party cohesion and change.
Lisbon, Portugal
Joined December 2015
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Very pleased to see my name in @EJPRjournal for the first time—especially alongside scholars whose work I have been reading for years.
ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com…
Those who did so were more moderate, more satisfied with democracy and seemingly less hostile to immigration.
Unlike in France, where parties have led the cordon sanitaire, in Portugal the barrier was built by voters.
50 free copies available at @sesp_j: tandfonline.com/eprint/MQCI4…
In the last few days, many have criticized Portugal's President for not speaking up in public. But how was he elected?
@PCMagalhaes and I show that it was thanks to a coordination failure and negative voting. 🧵
Hugo Ferrinho Lopes retweeted
New 2026 US House & Senate election forecasts, using all political science knowledge we could systematize, & our statistical methods from “If a Statistical Model Predicts That Common Events Should Occur Only Once in 10,000 Elections, Maybe It’s the Wrong Model” with @DannyCEbanks and @Jonathan_N_Katz. GaryKing.org/electit
We make these forecasts available (including all the input data, methods, and procedures), not only for their possible public interest, but because academics learn by making themselves vulnerable to being proven wrong. We will make no changes to our post-primary forecasts (which do not use polls) but will update two other sets on this site incorporating poll results as new ones appear. Comments on the paper or forecasts are welcome!
Hugo Ferrinho Lopes retweeted
Artigo de Salomé Pinto no ECO que inclui comentários de Sílvia Mangerona (@silviamangerona), Paula Espírito Santo, Bruno Ferreira Costa (@bfcosta83), Hugo Ferrinho Lopes (@HFerrinhoLopes) e meus: eco.sapo.pt/2026/10/08/ps-ga…
Hugo Ferrinho Lopes retweeted
Partisans have wildly inaccurate perceptions of outgroup members.
But a 10 minute conversation with a “outgroup” chatbot can correct these false beliefs and reduce partisan hostility.
We highlight this and 6 of our other favorite new studies on intergroup relations in our latest newsletter:
powerofusnewsletter.com/p/se…
Hugo Ferrinho Lopes retweeted
O relatorio do Orcamento de Estado 2027 cita o meu paper sobre a erosao do capital publico em Portugal:
oe.gov.pt/media/nqjhjumt/rel…
Hugo Ferrinho Lopes retweeted
Onde Lula perdeu votos entre o 1º turno de 2022 e o de 2026, e em que tipo de município? Cruzei o resultado das 5.570 cidades com dados do Censo 2022 e do PIB municipal. Dados do TSE ainda preliminares (05/10). Os principais achados, em 7 tweets.
Remember 'Love Actually'? The partisan remake is 'Hate, Actually'.
pewresearch.org/short-reads/…
Hugo Ferrinho Lopes retweeted
Masterpiece. Egami & Lee introduce synthetic purposive sampling, a transparent method for selecting diverse sites and weighting their estimates to improve external validity when random site sampling is infeasible.
doi.org/10.1111/ajps.70070
Hugo Ferrinho Lopes retweeted
経済学のセミナーにおいて、女性は男性よりも遮られることが多い
その遮り方についても、否定的な口調であったり、発言の途中であったりすることが、女性に対してより多くなるという研究
Gender Differences in Economics Seminars
American Economic Review
aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.12…
Olhem, Portugal destacado. À frente da Europa Ocidental em algo.
The Atlas of Social Attitudes is now live: atlasofsocialattitudes.eu What is it, what can you do with it, and why did we build it? A 🧵. (1)
Hugo Ferrinho Lopes retweeted
É já depois de amanhã. ulisboa.pt/evento/apresentac…
Hugo Ferrinho Lopes retweeted
I’m regularly asked how high, or low, youth turnout will be in upcoming elections.
So today, on a whim, I pulled the historical numbers and built a simple forecast.
At last: my definitive prediction for how many young people will vote in 2026.
You’re welcome, America.
Hugo Ferrinho Lopes retweeted
The Watson School and the Dept of Political Science at Brown are searching for a postdoc in comparative politics. The search is broadly defined with respect to region, substantive focus, and methodological approach. Please spread the word!
apply.interfolio.com/191974
The new study from FFMS about who governs Portugal is out, coordinated by Marcelo Camerlo and António Costa Pinto.
My chapter tells a story about the aging of political elites and how it relates to party membership and portfolio allocation.
ffms.pt/en/research/studies/…
