We provide commercial risk management services & advanced quantitative analytics for commodity hedgers inside of a leading investment bank (Hilltop Securities).
Joined April 2022
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University students holding irrelevant rallies is nothing new. Students rallying outside the CME wanting to overturn the banned onion futures contract defines irrelevant. BUT the protest highlights how prediction markets represent an interesting and developing alternative
Lori Logan, Fed President of Dallas Fed, said today “It remains clear to me, given the current outlook, that the FOMC needs to implement at least two more 25 basis point rate increases”
Fed hikes = US dollar strength vs the Brazilian real = headwinds US ag futures & exports
Estimated CME Feeder #cattle index - $.17 @ $351.17/cwt.
Compared to last week, DUMPER!!! at most auctions on light volume, 800 head.
Woodward, OK = DUMPER!!!
Valentine, NE = DUMPER!!!
USDA choice cutout looks to be peaking early. The loin primal is in a downward price trend, chucks moving sideways, round = DUMPER!!!! and is below the 3 year mean as imports of trimmings & grinds are strong. Demand for select = strong.
Probability of the Fed's FOMC raising the overnight lending rate at the December meet is a whopping 83%. 32% in March. The Fed's language at the October meeting gave the market little clues. Watch the energy and metals complex for clues about manufacturing costs and prices.
Not a good week or 30 days for choice beef pimals. Really bad for trimmings and grinds but terrible for end cuts. Removing the tariff quotas on beef is just not good for end cuts along with 50's and 90's
Unsurprisingly the FMOC does not make an adjustment to the Fed Funds rate. No clear signal about the December meeting. Obviously inflationary pressures and related prices will be monitored.
Compared to Brazil, US #corn exports are uncompetitive. The +30 day FOB differential between US NOLA and Parana shows US corn at +5.50 mt. After the Brazilian real got crushed after elections last weekend futures are moving lower to help US exports remain competitive.
Daily CME Feeder #cattle index....trending higher on strong demand as corn, wheat and sorghum prices trend lower. The aggressive move higher over the last few days has the index close to breaking out above the 5 year maximum price level which was set last year. RIPPER!!!
Today US auto manufacturer General Motors, better known as GM, is leaving the NYSE after 114 years to list on the NASDAQ-100. The goal: reposition as a "tech-forward" company.
Loss for words....Thoughts???
Starting in December, the CFTC will publish the report
every Wednesday and Friday at 3:30 p.m. New York time. "The push for twice-weekly publication was spurred by demand from the agricultural community."
Positive spot gross packing margins was fun while it lasted. Seasonal demand for #cattle accelerates during November as holiday and end of year middle meat grows. The choice loin primal is starting to exhibit a seasonal price appreciation.
The attacks by the Houthis on Saudi energy assets continue. Trump said "We don't play games" and that the US will resume attacks after the mid-terms. Going to be an electric November headed into the December FOMC meeting.
Here why Brazilian equities and the real crashed today… “Lula made lavish spending promises, championed a shorter working week without a pay cut & proposed debt relief for struggling households. He also floated free public transportation on weekends.”
wsj.com/finance/brazils-surp…
Estimated CME Feeder #cattle index at +$3.46/cwt is a RIPPER!!!! All auctions on Friday reported higher sale prices.
