han (@HanafyTrading) profile picture
Joined July 2017
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Masterful, simply masterful! Well played. I ate 20c off highs on G and H both but still awesome profit. Left more on table not hedging vol mid-week than futs. Just reloaded this AM again - all H this time. #Natgas
I am out of everything. Don't like the OI data from last couple of days.
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Please hammer don't hurt em! The difference b/n @grassosteve (#Rockstar) and #Nostradamas is it took ole Nosty a hell of a lot longer to be proven right. Shorting some more #ES #AAPL and #XLF up here, good thing I keep monetizing small portions otherwise would be complete facial
S&P cash Sell zone is 2581 up to 2637 if they overshoot it’s 2705
Ok we got my +50 - literally $2.98 to $3.50. I'm flat G underlying - Just long a lot of H and long G calls now. Not turning calls in to callspreads yet as this still has po-ten-tial. #Natgas #RiskReward #Vol #LuckyvsGood This is suddenly an incredibly awesome month!
Got long today @ $2.98. With the vol selloff it's substantially cheaper to own the same deltas as a few weeks ago but also got long underlying. It's +50 vs -15 unless the blue @ end turns to purple or red; then we could push thru $3.50 or $2.85 and recalibrate R:R #Natgas #Vol
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Multiplied by -1 and this tweet would have aged incredibly well! Looked like a good call for an hour with #ES ticking down near 2570 only to punk my view balday. Nothing like the rebirth of the never-go-down-propped up by policy-volless market. #SPY #SPX #Vol
#ES was 2565 when the President recycled "great progress" with China. We were 2587 heading in to J Powell's interview. Up to 2594 early, then he mentioned "substantially smaller balance sheet" than current $4 Trillion but "well above" pre-QE of $1 T. Guessing we undue Trump #SPX
#ES was 2565 when the President recycled "great progress" with China. We were 2587 heading in to J Powell's interview. Up to 2594 early, then he mentioned "substantially smaller balance sheet" than current $4 Trillion but "well above" pre-QE of $1 T. Guessing we undue Trump #SPX
Well, lucky I covered 30% LOL - was up > 270% on the trades at one point, monetized for cost and now up 28% after eating vol and the rally. @grassosteve highlighted this 2580-ish level so I just bought more puts on Crude, AAPL, SPY, and ES today #Vol #NearTermBear #ES #SPY #AAPL
G/H was +4c at G highs this morning. 15 mins after #EIA and we're G/H now flat on the day. Huge delta. I'm interested in how balday plays out #Natgas #Spreads #Curve
Well, lucky I covered 30% LOL - was up > 270% on the trades at one point, monetized for cost and now up 28% after eating vol and the rally. @grassosteve highlighted this 2580-ish level so I just bought more puts on Crude, AAPL, SPY, and ES today #Vol #NearTermBear #ES #SPY #AAPL
Covered 30% of the SPY puts ref $244.25 which pays for all the puts I bought yesterday on everything- everything lol. Covered 75% of AAPL puts ref $142.5 but added 147/136 PS for 01/11 expo. Violent though not unjustified #SPY #CL #VOL #VIXX Lets see if 2450 SPX holds
Got long today @ $2.98. With the vol selloff it's substantially cheaper to own the same deltas as a few weeks ago but also got long underlying. It's +50 vs -15 unless the blue @ end turns to purple or red; then we could push thru $3.50 or $2.85 and recalibrate R:R #Natgas #Vol
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Fed's Kaplan on Monetary Policy, China, Inflation bloomberg.com/news/videos/20… 6:10 curtailing balance sheet runoffs: "I'm not at that point yet", 7:15 "not there yet" 9:30 Fed's impact on economy: "mildly stimulant not restrictive"10:45 rate cut: "has not entered my mind" 1/2 #FED ..
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2/2 12:15 on oil production: "you'll see production still this year net increase by 1 mmbp/d +...even at this oil price we are above breakeven for most areas of the Permian basin" #Natgas #Crude #WTI. Doveish voice explicitly stating not there yet on rate cut/runoffs. #RUHROH
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Frustrating. Only monetized half at the lows - which were a fair bit above where I hoped we could go today #IWasWrong. Flat on everything and wound up making peanuts on the puts w/ vol doing nothing. Ah well, I'll take the singles too, it's not just about the XBH's #Natgas
Replying to @Holy_Helicity
Lacked the courage to sell futs <= $3....until just now. All good, glitches like this pop to $3 happen all the time. It's a thing....#Natgas
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Covered 30% of the SPY puts ref $244.25 which pays for all the puts I bought yesterday on everything- everything lol. Covered 75% of AAPL puts ref $142.5 but added 147/136 PS for 01/11 expo. Violent though not unjustified #SPY #CL #VOL #VIXX Lets see if 2450 SPX holds
Little out of my comfort zone but short #WTI #CL here at $47.60. Also bought a lot (A LOT!) of puts on indices and equities around 2510 S&P - all expiring by next Friday. Curious how long this global-detachment can overwhelm. Betting not much longer obviously lol.
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Tonight's runs settle the "who's right at day 10 (hr 240)." It was the ECMWF by a country mile. GFS Ensemble correcting tonight after the OP went full-on blowtorch. Wishful bids aside it's looking likely we print down to perhaps $2.80 on G'19 tomorrow morning #Natgas #KingEuro
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Where did the Bitcoin real-time window go on CNBC? Better question: why was it there in the 1st place? AAPL window next after guidance bomb?
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TY #AAPL. If I were an institutional shareholder I would have harsh questions for Tim Cook about why - at this critical juncture for innovation - they persist w/ a massive buyback with the stock at a level where every purchase the last 1.5 yrs is under-water #NothingLastsForever
Little out of my comfort zone but short #WTI #CL here at $47.60. Also bought a lot (A LOT!) of puts on indices and equities around 2510 S&P - all expiring by next Friday. Curious how long this global-detachment can overwhelm. Betting not much longer obviously lol.
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Little out of my comfort zone but short #WTI #CL here at $47.60. Also bought a lot (A LOT!) of puts on indices and equities around 2510 S&P - all expiring by next Friday. Curious how long this global-detachment can overwhelm. Betting not much longer obviously lol.
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Ha well Long G'19 @ $3.12. This GFS Ensemble has too much not to like. Sucks, now I have to wake up for the Euro Ensemble to determine if this is all of a 2 hour hold or just the start of a bigger accumulation. #Natgas #Damn #Grrr (hopefully this answers a few folks asking)
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I am not proud of how well this aged. If you relied on the loudest voices of #WeatherTwitter to objectively, if not accurately, assess the distribution of weather risk please DO NOT make that mistake again. Hate to see retail get stomped b/c of agenda-driven "experts" SMH #Natgas
Replying to @HanafyTrading
3/3 Posting this b/c it's essentially deja vu. WIth all due respect: Cohen's, Bastardi's, and other Perma-frosters are out there with unabashed advertisement of unidirectional risk of the highest magnitude. If you are retail - please - BE CAREFUL. Not a crime to hedge #Natgas
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Hey Lichtsteiner, I think it's time to retire - Sincerely, 2015 You. Suck. Single-handedly took away any chance we had today. Better off 11v10. #PremierLeague #Arsenal #Liverpool #Lichtsteiner
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Annoying. Wanted to call it a year and close-out my best month since '08 on my terms. Going to be flat before EOD regardless but wanted to bask in following the script to a T yet again. GL knife-catchers. I wish you thick gloves or purple deltas on today's ensembles #Natgas #EPIC
Short @$3.48. Forget hedging the putspreads; wish i'd bought more. Confused why we aren't $3.375 (yest's low) or lower yet. Maybe one of these "wedge" "pivot" "chart" cats are going to get a print around $3.60 before this comes off hard. Not my game. $3.25 bid to get flat #Natgas
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