Energy systems modeler
Joined June 2019
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The shadow price of a product measures the marginal change in the system’s optimal objective value (however your objective is defined; e.g., least cost, highest profit) resulting from a one-unit increase in its demand.
This is the shadow price of natural gas in Saudi Arabia:
5/6 …since the natural gas price would be much lower. In Saudi Arabia, the market-clearing price of natural gas with market-based oil prices, or its shadow price without the prospects of LNG trade, is $4/mmBtu (Renewable case, below).
doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2026.1…
Saudi Arabia's consumer credit card debt surged to a record SAR 36.8 billion in Q3 2026.
It has almost doubled since the start of this decade.
What's striking is that the growth rate has accelerated since 2021 compared with the preceding years.
Harry Silver 🇸🇦 retweeted
Fox: Why are you here this morning?
Trump rally attendee: Well, in the late 70s, I was a little too young to go to South America for the Jonestown Massacre. But this is as close as I'll ever get, so that's why I'm here. There's nothing like seeing a cult right up front.
The monthly average number of point-of-sale (POS) transactions per second in Saudi Arabia reached a record high of 419 in September 2026.
30 years ago, there were virtually no POS transactions.
Reversing losses from recent weeks, around 80% of firms listed on Tadawul traded either flat or in positive territory this week.
Harry Silver 🇸🇦 retweeted
Satellites show some of the strongest evidence the AMOC is weakening
The crucial Atlantic current system that brings warmth to Europe has slowed 14 percent in 30 years, according to an analysis of how much heat the ocean is releasing to the atmosphere
newscientist.com/article/259…
docs.google.com/document/d/1…
Harry Silver 🇸🇦 retweeted
Saudi crude exports hit about 7.15m b/d in the first 22 days of October, Vortexa data shows.
In May they were 3.75m, the weakest month since at least 2016.
Most of the extra barrels are leaving through the Red Sea, with the Gulf adding the rest.
Exports at that pace suggest Riyadh has lifted output toward 9-10m b/d, analysts estimate.
Add refined products and exports are near 8.5m b/d, still below the 9m+ before the war.
Saudi Arabia’s 2 export routes are now both under fire.
A fire broke out near Ras Tanura, its biggest oil export terminal on the Gulf, early Tuesday after an attack, Bloomberg reports.
It was contained, and the damage isn’t clear yet.
Ras Tanura also hosts a 550k b/d refinery.
The other route is the East-West pipeline, which carries crude across the country to the Red Sea.
The Houthis claimed attacks on it also this week.
Hit the Gulf side, and barrels shift west.
When both sides take fire, Riyadh has nowhere left to divert.
source:Bloomberg
Harry Silver 🇸🇦 retweeted
“This is a major effort,” said Ali Shihabi “The signal it sends is that Saudi Arabia doesn’t support escalation and is worried that Israel is going to drag Trump into another round.” washingtonpost.com/world/202…
Harry Silver 🇸🇦 retweeted
The @kbsalsaud visit to Tehran is no ordinary diplomatic gesture. His seniority and proximity to the Saudi leadership send a powerful signal. Riyadh is investing serious political capital in dialogue with Iran, seeking to contain escalation and create a credible diplomatic path out of the crisis.
يرأس صاحب السمو الملكي الأمير خالد بن سلمان بن عبدالعزيز آل سعود، وزير الدفاع، وفد المملكة للاجتماعات التي تستضيفها العاصمة الإيرانية طهران اليوم بين دول اتفاقية مكة للدفاع المشترك مع المسؤولين من الجمهورية الإسلامية الإيرانية.
وذلك بمشاركة المشير/ عاصم منير، رئيس أركان الجيش الباكستاني، والسيد/ إبراهيم قالن، رئيس الاستخبارات التركية، وسيلتقي ممثلوا دول اتفاقية مكة للدفاع المشترك فخامة رئيس الجمهورية الإسلامية الإيرانية مسعود بزشكيان، ومعالي الأمين العام للمجلس الأعلى للأمن القومي محسن رضائي.
وتأتي الزيارة في إطار استمرار جهود دول اتفاقية مكة للدفاع المشترك لخفض التصعيد بين أطراف الأزمة الحالية وتشجيع الحوار والحلول الدبلوماسية، ودعم جهود الوساطة التي تقوم بها دولة قطر وجمهورية باكستان الإسلامية، والتأكيد على الدور المحوري لدول اتفاقية مكة في استتاب أمن المنطقة واستقرارها والعمل مع كافة دول المنطقة في سبيل تحقيق ذلك الهدف.
SABIC's Fujian JV successfully started its ethylene oxide/ethylene glycol unit two weeks ago.
chem.jgvogel.cn/c1623159.sht…
SABIC’s Fujian complex is apparently set to begin operations in November.
It’s happening…
news.chemnet.com/news-10645.…
SABIC’s Q3 earnings were higher than the highest bank forecast.
nitter.gq/HarrySilver17/status/2…
سابك.. خضراء 🟢🧪
🟢 ارتفاع أرباح #سابك إلى 499 مليون ريال وبنسبة +16% في الربع الثالث لعام 2026م.
- الإيرادات: 28.17 مليار ريال (-3.1%)
- صافي الربح: 499 مليون ريال (+16%)
- ربحية السهم: 0.17 ريال
سبب ارتفاع الأرباح؟
1. ارتفاع إجمالي الربح بنحو 575 مليون ريال بدعم ارتفاع أسعار بيع المنتجات رغم انخفاض الكميات المباعة.
2. ارتفاع نتائج المشاريع المشتركة غير التكاملية والشركات الزميلة بنحو 1.62 مليار ريال.
3. تسجيل عكس انخفاض في استثمارات حقوق ملكية مدرجة في أوروبا نتيجة ارتفاع سعر السهم.
For the 6th straight month, Saudi Arabia has imported more fuel oil than it exported.
Power & industrial demand and refinery output changes could explain the trend. Imports may have been cheaper than domestic production, allowing refineries to prioritize higher-value products.
And why did the U.S. really start the Iran war? Here’s your answer:
nitter.gq/joekent16jan19/status/…
Harry Silver 🇸🇦 retweeted
Barack Obama decided to hit Pete Hegseth with the elbow from the top rope. Absolutely brutal takedown.
Although industrial customers account for 1-2% of Marafiq's customer base, they consume 80% of its electricity. With demand largely driven by industrial schedules and constraints, Marafiq’s load profile is a useful proxy for industrial loads in the absence of chronological data.
I often get comments that linear models must always produce linear results.
While each individual constraint is linear, the interaction of many linear constraints can produce complex, non-linear relationships, as shown below.
Only 7% of companies listed on Tadawul’s main market recorded share price gains last week. At least Aramco was among that 7%.
After surging nearly 45% last week, Watani Steel’s share price fell 28% this week.
(corrected the vertical axis scale in graph)
As domestic diesel consumption has risen and the Jazan refinery was offline in August, Saudi diesel exports have declined over the summer.
Graph: @JODI_Data
Saudi Arabia’s diesel use in August 2026 was the highest since 2016. As the example of Saudi Kayan below suggests, increased truck freight transport to the Red Sea amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions may have contributed to the rise in recent months.
Graph: @JODI_Data #OOTT
Saudi Arabia’s diesel use in August 2026 was the highest since 2016. As the example of Saudi Kayan below suggests, increased truck freight transport to the Red Sea amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions may have contributed to the rise in recent months.
Graph: @JODI_Data #OOTT