26 | sports modeling | @AMPAnalytics_ | ⚾️: 26/30 | 🌲: 9/63
NY x NJ
Joined June 2019
- Tweets8.4K
- Following747
- Followers13.2K
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Pat 🧘♂️⚾️ retweeted
Also added the 3PM projections to the website with a nifty feature, "who's playing"
Think a guy sits tonight before it’s announced? Set him to Out and his whole team reprices instantly... Get there before the books do
7-day free trial: ampanalyticsarena.com/signup
+19,700 banger last night, I never formally "introduced" my NBA model so here we go....One ticket doesn't prove anything, so here’s what does.
My NBA model has priced 92,324 alt 3PM lines across 3 full seasons it never trained on, plus every game this season so far.
When it says a play hits 10% of the time, it hits about 10%. When it says 20%, about 20%, and so on.
That’s the whole game with longshots. A +1900 isn’t a good bet because it might hit, but when the real chance is bigger than the price says, and you only know that if your percentages are honest...
Here’s how it works 🧵
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️ retweeted
+19,700 banger last night, I never formally "introduced" my NBA model so here we go....One ticket doesn't prove anything, so here’s what does.
My NBA model has priced 92,324 alt 3PM lines across 3 full seasons it never trained on, plus every game this season so far.
When it says a play hits 10% of the time, it hits about 10%. When it says 20%, about 20%, and so on.
That’s the whole game with longshots. A +1900 isn’t a good bet because it might hit, but when the real chance is bigger than the price says, and you only know that if your percentages are honest...
Here’s how it works 🧵
OH YA BABY CASH THAT SHIT
+19,700 ✅
+1900 ✅
Everything I play is derived from my model outputs, posted in VIP section of discord
discord.gg/7JgD56k6f
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️ retweeted
OH YA BABY CASH THAT SHIT
+19,700 ✅
+1900 ✅
Everything I play is derived from my model outputs, posted in VIP section of discord
discord.gg/7JgD56k6f
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️ retweeted
MLB Strikeout Wagers Final P/L
Overall: +$1,111 ✅
Straights: +$2,464✅
Parlays: -$1,353❌
Finished up 22.2u with a 2.03% ROI, disappointing but we’ll be back next season, whenever that is
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️ retweeted
Me and @IIPatll put our brains together for this
.3u and .1u recs
All plays ➡️ discord.gg/SX7CV9tnM
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️ retweeted
I know nothing about betting on NHL and have tailed everything sent in the discord from @Dfsprodigy23 and @IIPatll
I trust my guys
+31.5u with a 23% ROI 🫡
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️ retweeted
Whole team cooked last night 🔥 🔥
+8888 ✅ from @Dfsprodigy23
+3320 ✅ from @IIPatll
+3100 ✅ from @KSplitAnalytics
+2240✅ from @KSplitAnalytics
AMPanalyticsarena.com
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️ retweeted
Robby T had 0 points with 5 minutes left in the game and then decided he wanted to be a fucking hero. What a legend. Cash the legacy +8888 !
All my plays here
discord.com/invite/ctqvdVQRQ…
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️ retweeted
Couple more bad lines the bot identified based off of the model’s fair values
Bouchard u3.5 20.29% EV
Carlson u2.5 SOG 7.54% EV
Suter ATGS SOG 5.88% EV
Laughton u1.5 SOG 4.17% EV
Assuming these hold to the CLV, regardless of the outcome, these are good bets
Some great value identified by the discord bot that reads the SOG model
-145 moved to -165
-135 moved to -160
Straights can be boring, but imperative to being a profitable long term bettor
discord.gg/fF8UffKDA
