Chairman, Pantheon Macroeconomics. Blocked by Piers Morgan. Trial: https://nitter.gq/t.co/hjv4yzlxDl Speaking: [email protected]
Montpellier/NY/Ldn/Newcastle
Joined July 2011
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34 years is enough for me. I could not have found a safer pair of hands than Sam's, plus he and Olly are way better at Excel than me.
Thrilled to formally become Chief US Economist at Pantheon Macro today. @IanShepherdson has been an incredible mentor since I switched focus from the UK in Feb. I look forward to maintaining Pantheon’s reputation for incisive research on the US economy, supported by Oliver Allen.
In which we learn that @JustinCChang really didn't like Wild Horse Nine, and gives a pretty good impression of really not liking Martin McDonagh's work, period. As I still have nightmares about The Pillowman, 20 years later, I think he is pretty effective.
In Martin McDonagh’s latest bloody buddy comedy, “Wild Horse Nine,” two hit men embark on an adventure on the eve of the Pinochet dictatorship. Chris Carlisle, a C.I.A agent played by John Malkovich, is stationed in Chile and dying of cancer. He has decided that exploring Easter Island with his protégé, Lee Chesterfield (Sam Rockwell), will be his last hurrah. He wants Lee, whose marksmanship he trusts as much as his friendship, to hasten his departure. “The conversations that [McDonagh has] written for Chris and Lee toggle between humor and pathos, between self-satisfied snark and self-conscious elegy, and there’s barely a moment when you don’t hear the grinding of tonal gears,” Justin Chang writes. Read his full review of the film: newyorkermag.visitlink.me/DR…
Seems like a good day to re-up some basic math.
If AI isn't going to wipe out millions of jobs every year, it has to generate productivity gains of about 7% pa in order to justify the capex. Impossible. So someone has to lose money
Big Tech Has Suddenly Flipped on the AI Jobs Wipeout Scenario wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-workers-t… via @WSJ
You'll read a lot of stuff about how AI is powering econ growth. But the fact is consumption & defense gave 86% of all Q3 growth. >80% of AI tech spend is imported so doesn't count, net, towards growth. Assuming you don't want an endless war, better hope people keep spending...
👇👇👇👇
Lord O'Neil commented in the FT today that the UK's bordering on strong growth deserves more comment... Well, hello, Mr. O'Neil! Grab yourself a Pantheon trial. We're talking about it. A lot.
@PantheonMacro #ukeconomy
Bread has been postponed, so there will have to be circuses instead.
The Pentagon says it will livestream the firing squad execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Malik Hasan
apnews.com/article/fort-hood…
Usually I'm happy when my forecast is right but (a) this was the easiest forecast ever and (b) I'm beyond pissed at the utter stupidity of it all.
Inflation on many everyday items was entirely due to tariffs, NY Fed says cnbc.com/2026/10/08/inflatio…
He took the job. So he never had any credibility to start with. It's tricky when you start from zero.
A housing market thaw, $3 gas, inflation back at 2%. Scott Bessent’s forecasts keep missing the mark, putting his credibility at risk bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Ian Shepherdson retweeted
It's beyond doubt now - AI is a net drag on payrolls.
Job losses in finance, information and professional and business services are continuously exceeding the jobs created in the construction and manufacturing sectors:
