Stock and crypto, analysis & predictions. Be careful of impersonators. Trades/education on Slice: https://xitter.cf/t.co/HKRP4lGWFN.
CryptoWorld
Joined December 2015
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Gambling culture in 2026 is out of control. Unfortunately a sign of a depressed market and hard economic times. People think the only way out is to take bigger risks with smaller sizes which is the fastest way to lose it all before things change.
Guess the new play is to buy energy (XLE) the first day of a midterm year. 74% move in 2022, currently at 54% move in 2026.
$LMT - War stock breaking out of the diagonal on a day that the SPY is down over 1%.
$LMT - The stock always seems to know before the news gets released.
BREAKING: Iran has instructed all arms of its armed forces to treat political targets associated with the US and other participants in the war, along with their infrastructure, as legitimate targets in the next round of large-scale war with the US and Israel, which Tehran considers certain, per a senior Iranian security official to Fars.
It comes as Trump has shifted toward favoring a preemptive strike on Iran in recent hours.
It's amazing what happened the exact day they started letting retail (smaller accounts) day trade without pattern day trading rules. It's like the market switched easy mode off from ranging in a straight line to fakeouts, chop, and consolidation.
Everyone will have a year that makes them feel like a genius. And everyone will have a year that completely humbles them. The longer you are in the game the more you start to realize and respect consistency and compounding growth over gambling and massive wins.
$ETH - Would be very happy to be wrong here and not get the lower fakeout. I'm ready for the upside part and if we can recover that channel (top blue line) I'll be ready for the last leg. A Q4 rally here would be pretty great.
Still really want to see that 3 trillion marketcap breach in crypto. That's my sand in the line for when I'm fine taking a break in stocks and going back to crypto.
It's comical that there's sales tax on rebuilding after a fire meanwhile you still have to pay your property tax and then continue to pay your income tax while you continue to spend more tax on everything to buy back which costs more with inflation as tax rates likely to go up.
Relative volume shows how explosive Wednesday and Thursday were. We didn't get much today on a Monday which would have made for a more convincing bull case. Last time we bottomed/bounced on the S&P 500 we saw bright candles like these on October 1st/2nd.
$LMT - Nice when the hedge play can go up on red days and still goes up on green days.
$QQQ - Diagonal still holding but you can barely even see the green candle. Either sellers are exhausted and that was all the selling or they just took a break and round two starts soon.
$UUP - Suddenly being up 5% in a heavy allocation in a boring ETF doesn't feel so bad anymore.
$UUP - A boring trade but it's been going up slowly and with large capital positions green right now it's still a win. A hedge play that benefits from a stronger US dollar. Still like it for 7 to 10% upside in a year.
Cancer ETF outperforming the S&P 500 by more than double two years in a row. Would love to see more medical advances/cures with the explosion of AI and hopefully the growth in this sector gets us closer instead of being the result of rates expanding.
One of those years where retail out performed everyone in Q1 and Q2, Q3 the ETFs and indexes started to make people question why they didn't just hold those, and now Q4 might be the quarter where sitting in cash or bonds with 5% interest might have been the play all along.
Eyes on war stocks and war ETFs which had a pretty good week. 90% chance it's just defensive hedging (what I did) but sometimes there's something happening not in the news that gets reflected in the charts and only makes sense later.
You don't need to be a millionaire in your 20s to be rich. You need to stop gambling and losing money and be patient. Think of how many accounts show 7 and 8 figure wins and keep pushing only to give it all back. Some of you are worth more than Warren Buffett at his younger ages.
$ETH - Squiggles still in play. Still looking like we got a fakeout coming. This lines up with stocks if we see another big sell off and capitulation then we can setup for a violent rebound.
