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Last week I said that for TRX to break out, we may need an FTX collapse-like catalyst and one final leg down in crypto. This week Binance was hacked for a record $6.3B, almost like clockwork. $234M in stolen USDT was swapped into TRX to avoid being frozen. Some of that TRX has since been moved through swaps and bridges into other assets, including ETH. That could put some short-term pressure on TRX, but based on where we are in the wave structure, I think this could be the last leg down. I honestly don’t think this is another FTX. Roughly 44% of the stolen assets have already been frozen or seized, which gives them a much clearer path to recovery. Binance also says it has replenished 90% of the stolen assets. Bybit survived its $1.5B hack, and I think Binance can survive this too, although reopening withdrawals and meeting demand will be the real test. The hack is real, but I think fear, panic and doomsday speculation are making the selling worse. That’s exactly the kind of sentiment I’d expect around a final washout before a much larger move up. The wave structure is why I’m watching for it; the news may just be the catalyst. I’d watch for a big leg up in the 48 hours after Binance reopens withdrawals and continues operating as usual.

Is it finally time for $TRX to break out? It's at my October time target now, and structurally it looks ready for a break up 🚀 tradingview.com/chart/TRXUSD…

$TRX is in its longest top-1% volatility compression on record: 45 days, 50% longer than the prior record. 30D realized vol is just 12.5%. Less than virtually all other cryptos and the S&P500! Of the 10 longest prior episodes, 8/10 were higher 90 days after release, averaging +15.5%. @justinsuntron @trondao

Crypto has been mind numbingly boring this year, so something big is around the corner🚀 $TRX is still stuck in this triangle, but it's getting close to the end now. Wave-e should end by October and then @trondao could rapidly hit $1 as soon as January. @justinsuntron

The bear market might have already ended, but it's early to call it for sure. Retracing wave-e faster than wave-e formed is the confirmation signal we need to see the end of the bear market (>$80k before mid-august). If wave-e isn't fully retraced then it probably formed the 2nd b-wave of a double zigzag, and we'll get one final wave down to around $50k. Either way, it seems like 58k support has held so it's probably up for the next few weeks.

tron:native is likely done pulling back now. It may go sideways in the 0.30-0.40 range for a little longer this year, but before the end of next year it could be trading over $7. @trondao has outperformed almost all other coins this year, especially on a risk-adjusted basis and when including staking rewards. As we begin one of the largest stock market bull runs in history, tron:native (and most cryptos) could be ending an 8 year bear market which began in 2018. The cycle of smaller bull runs may be ending now if this wave count is confirmed. 2018 was huge, 2021 was weaker, 2024 was even weaker. This pattern won't continue to happen forever, despite what some might think. The volatility compression we've seen over the last 8 years is like a tightly coiled spring ready to bounce. tron:native is arguably the MOST tightly coiled of all cryptos, going from virtually the most volatile crypto in 2018 to now the least volatile crypto, significantly less than even Bitcoin. $7 might seem crazy but it is the same percentage gain as 2021, and this next run could be even bigger on a percentage basis. $7 is actually the minimum needed to confirm the wave count, but it can go much higher than that eventually. Trillion is quickly becoming the new billion, not long ago there were zero trillion dollar companies, now there are 16 and BTC is also steadily over a trillion. Just this year alone 6 new companies became worth over a trillion. We're going to rapidly see more new entrants into the trillion club, both companies and cryptos. $BTC and many companies easily go to $10T+ eventually, so TRX at $1T+ around the same time is totally possible. TRON is a trillion dollar coin. The only question is when. @justinsuntron

This seems to be increasingly common with treasury companies. They're either panic selling or doubting their ability to continue. @TRON_INC has been an exception. They held off on dilution and instead have actually increased their net income to millions of dollars/yr with staking rewards, far beyond what it was before the treasury strategy was initiated. $TRX has been the superior treasury asset to virtually every other crypto because it is both stable and producing a high staking rate. @justinsuntron @trondao

It feels like $BTC going to see one final capitulation this quarter and it could rapidly fall to $40-50k. People will declare it dead, the shouting about $MSTR blowing up will get even louder, MSTR might even sell some more BTC or take on new debt to buy back their stock as it trades under mNAV. The Nasdaq will probably pull back a little more, adding some fuel to the fire, but it will probably be a very modest single digit % pull back from here. The biggest loser won't be BTC, it will be random alts. My technical scanner points towards the coins in my screenshot being the biggest losers. They could see -50% or more drawdowns as the crypto market capitulates. In the end, potentially as soon as mid-July or late as October, the market will bottom. MSTR will survive, BTC and alts will bounce back, and the next bull market could begin. $RAY $SEI $FARTCOIN $WIF $SAFE $SUI $RUNE $ETHFI $KAIA $LDO $VET $OP $ATH $WAL $BERA $IP $AAVE $UNI $FET

This feels like a sign the bear market is close to the end. Like I said a couple days ago MSTR will probably need to sell some BTC and buy back their shares, and now they've prepared to do exactly that. If/when the capitulation comes, $MSTR will likely fall into a mNAV discount, at which point they'll get squeezed for some of their BTC at very low prices and then the market will probably reach peak fear and find its long-term bottom. nitter.gq/blckchaindaily/status/…

$BTC might dip to around $50k in the first half of July. It's probably getting closer to the end of the bear market but not quite there yet. Unless we get a very substantial bounce after hitting $50k, the end might be closer to September/October around $40k