Colby Hill

My Top 10 ETF Buy and Hold Forever Core - $SPYM Growth - $QQQM Momentum - $SPMO International - $VXUS U.S. Small Cap Value - $AVUV Dividend - $SCHD Premium Income - $GPIQ Commodity - $GLDM Bonds - $BND Cash - $SGOV What am I missing?

$SOFI - FULL EARNINGS REVIEW investwithcolby.substack.com…

Team $HOOD after this earnings? FULL REVIEW 👇 investwithcolby.substack.com…

Leading YTD % as we enter the final two months of 2026. Who will finish top dog? $SMH $VGT $SCHD

Today's trades: $ASTS, $IREN, $SMR, $ONDS 4 positions closed.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: Wall Street ($SPY $QQQ $DIA) Third straight green day for all three big indexes. The S&P 500 closed at 7,743.98, up 0.28%, with $SPY at $772.31, up 0.34%. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,549.85, up 0.27%, with $QQQ at $725.61, up 0.60%. The Dow closed at 52,475.10, up 0.19%, with $DIA at $524.68, up 0.27%. Small caps led, $IWM at $281.29, up 0.40%. High beta beat low vol by a wide margin again, $SPHB jumped 1.58% while $SPLV slipped 0.42%. The Fed held, and buyers stayed in control. Bonds ($TLT $SPY) The Fed held rates steady at 3.75% to 4% in a 10 to 2 vote, with two policymakers wanting a hike right now. The 10 year yield rose to 5.05% and the 30 year rose to 5.36%, and the yield curve steepened after Chair Warsh stressed price stability in his press conference. Translation, the Fed paused, but it did not close the door on another hike before year end. Energy ($XLE $USO) WTI crude closed at $101.97, up 2.07%. Brent closed at $110.52, down 2.95% on the futures close. Oil stayed over $100 after Houthi rebels claimed a missile strike on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery, the kingdom's largest at 550,000 barrels a day. Saudi officials have not confirmed damage, but traders are keeping a big risk premium in crude. Vertiv was the earnings rocket $VRT surged after a huge third quarter. Net sales grew 61%, diluted EPS grew 91%, organic orders grew over 100%, and the company raised its full year 2026 guidance across every key metric. AI data centers need power and cooling, and Vertiv keeps printing the proof. AI infrastructure stayed hot $NBIS led our focus list, closing at $182.34, up 6.96%. $IREN closed at $28.84, up 5.10%, and $CIFR closed at $8.87, up 4.60%. $TE closed at $2.63, up 6.91%, and $HIMS closed at $29.32, up 5.01%. The money keeps rotating into the buildout names even when the mega caps rest. Wendy's got a takeover bid $WEN surged 15% after Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund Management offered to buy the chain for more than $1.4 billion in cash. On the ugly side, $FFIV crashed about 20% and $ENPH fell about 16% on a rough earnings day for both. Big Tech ($NVDA $AAPL $AMZN $META) Mostly red, and that made the green indexes more impressive. $NVDA closed at $215.38, down 1.17%. $AAPL closed at $343.83, down 0.94%. $META closed at $612.49, down 1.24%. $TSLA closed at $404.22, down 0.80%. $AMZN was the exception, closing at $254.60, up 0.59%, ahead of its earnings Thursday. After the close, Microsoft jumped about 6% and Alphabet dropped about 10% in after hours trading on their results, so tomorrow opens with that fight. Crypto ($MSTR $COIN $HOOD) Bitcoin closed around $81,202, up 0.49%, holding above $81,000. $MSTR closed at $145.16, up 2.66%. $COIN closed at $162.32, up 0.76%. $HOOD went the other way, down 5.75% after its earnings came in short of Wall Street estimates. Gold and Silver ($GLD $SLV) $GLD closed at $373.51, up 0.33%, with gold futures around $4,080 an ounce. $SLV closed at $49.06, down 0.20%. Gold holding over $4,000 with the 10 year at 5.05% is still one of the loudest fear signals in this market. The Fed paused, oil is still over $100, and now Microsoft and Alphabet just split hard after hours. Does Big Tech earnings power this market higher, or is Alphabet's drop the warning sign? 📈 YOUR DAILY STOCK MARKET RECAP

Pay yourself first is not a slogan. It is the whole retirement system. Most people save what is left after spending. That is backwards. The money that is left is usually zero. What changed it for me was simple. An automatic transfer leaves my account the day after payday, before I can touch it, before any stock pick or bill debate. Start small enough that you do not cancel it. Even $300 a month, hypothetical at 8%, not a forecast, compounds to about $447,108 over 30 years. You only put in $108,000 of that. Time and consistency did the rest. Automate it once. Then let boring do the heavy lifting. Do you pay yourself first on payday, or do you save what is left at the end of the month?

The boring core of my portfolio is simple. Every month I DCA into $VOO, no matter what the headline says. No timing. No guessing the bottom. The buy is already decided before the month starts, so a red day or a scary headline does not change the plan. Here is why the math keeps me patient, hypothetical at 8%, not a forecast. $500 a month for 30 years is $180,000 put in. At that hypothetical 8% return, compounded monthly, it grows to about $745,180. I did not pick stocks to get there. I just kept buying the whole market, one month at a time. Boring has made me more than active trading ever did. Set it on payday, fund the Roth first, and let it run. What is your monthly buy right now, and what would you raise it to next year? Education only. Not financial advice.

$CIFR RSI just hit 26.9. Since 2020, RSI has closed at or below this level only 28 times. That is 1.9% of all 1,499 trading days in its history. The last time was September 6, 2024. RSI was 26.8 and the price was $2.70. CIFR was a much smaller, lower priced stock back then. What happened next was a sharp reversal. One month later it was $4.02, up 48.9%. Three months later it was $6.89, up 155.2%. Twelve months later it was $10.25, up 279.6%. That does not mean it happens again. The company, the market, and the price are all different now, and extremes can stay extreme longer than anyone expects. History rhymes, it does not guarantee. For the Wheel Strategy, this is the low side I watch. Fear is where the premium gets paid. Our checklist reads CSP today: red day, bottom half of the band, RSI under 40. That is a check, not a chase. Strike selection and small size still matter more than the headline RSI. Would you sell a cash secured put into this kind of fear, or wait to see if RSI goes even lower first?

$HOOD is getting punished for a split earnings print. EPS came in at $0.60, beating the $0.56 estimate. Revenue missed, and that one line is all the market cares about today. Bulls say record activity, prediction markets surging, and a selloff like this is an overreaction. Bears say growth is slowing and the valuation left no room for a miss. For the Wheel Strategy, this is the setup I watch. Red day, RSI at 34, premium inflated. That is CSP territory if you actually want the shares. Beat on EPS, miss on revenue. Is this a buy the dip moment or the start of a bigger reset?

This is crazy. Someone is willing to pay me $170 to buy my $PGY shares at $22 by January 2027. It's called a covered call, and here's how it works: $PGY is at $20.04 today, up 1.37% and pushing toward the top of its range with resistance up at $22.50 to $23.50. RSI is 59.2, a tick under the 60 line I usually want for this, so the setup is close but not perfect. I already own 100 shares with an $18.50 cost basis. I sold the January 15, 2027 $22 call and collected $170 up front, $1.70 per share. If the stock is at or above $22 at expiration, my 100 shares get sold at $22. That is the deal I am being paid for, and it is why it is called covered. My shares cover the call. One of two things happens: 1. $PGY stays below $22. The call expires worthless and I keep the $170 AND keep my shares. That is an 8.5% return on the shares' current $2,004 value in 79 days, about 39.2% annualized. The shares are still there to sell another call on. 2. $PGY rises to $22 or above. My shares get called away at $22, so my effective sale price is $23.70 with the premium added. From my $18.50 cost basis that is a $520 total gain, up 28.1%. The cap is the honest cost here. If $PGY runs to $26, I still only get $23.70, so I give up $230 of upside above that. And the stock can also fall. At $16 my share loss from cost would be $250, but the $170 premium cushions it to an $80 loss. One more thing. $PGY reports earnings tomorrow, October 29, well before this call expires, so a big move either way is possible. Not financial advice. I share these for education. Would you sell this call and take the paid exit at $23.70, or hold the shares and keep all the upside?

$TEM GEX heatmap breakdown. TEM is up 5.75% to $76.30 today, with spot at $76.24 on the map. Simple version: green is positive gamma, where dealer hedging tends to dampen moves. Purple is negative gamma, where hedging can amplify moves. The flip is where it switches. Net GEX is +$5.74M and spot sits $6.24 above the $70 flip. That cushion is positive gamma, so dips are more likely to be slowed and rips sold into while price holds above $70. The put wall is $66, well below spot, at -$165K for Oct 30. That makes it a lower pivot zone, not nearby support. Gamma turns purple from $65 to $68 and thins below $72, so a loss of $70 could move faster. The call wall is $75, just below spot, with $746K for Oct 30 and $680K for Nov 20. That makes $75 a pin and support zone now. Above, gamma builds again at $80, with $688K for Oct 30. Wheel read: WAIT. RSI is 58.4, not 60 or higher for a covered call and not oversold for a cash secured put. No rule, no trade. The map agrees, patience beats chasing a big green day. GEX is an estimate from public options data. Levels are zones, not exact lines. Would you wait for a pullback toward the $75 to $70 zone, or wait for RSI to push above 60 before selling a call?