Credible and constructive policy analysis and educational resources on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Israeli politics, U.S.-Israel relations, and more.
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The time has come to chart the next phase of the U.S.-Israel security relationship.
Our new report by @RCBrandenburg, @GabrielEpsteinX, @elisaewers44, and @mkoplow lays out a vision for the next MOU: moving from a provider-recipient framework to a greater partnership.
Real-time Election Results:
Israelis are voting at record rates in the 2026 election. This page will be updated with provisional results as they are released along with initial Knesset mandate projections and other analysis. israelpolicyforum.org/onetwe…
Israel’s election determines who sits in the Knesset—not automatically who governs. 🧵
Voters choose parties, which must clear the 3.25% threshold to win seats. The largest party does not necessarily lead the next government: coalition-building determines who can. (1/4)
A new government takes office only after winning a Knesset confidence vote. If all attempts fail, Israel heads to another election. Until a successor is sworn in, Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister—even if his coalition loses its majority. (3/4)
How do Israelis’ votes become 120 Knesset seats? 🧵
First, they count ballots and remove invalid votes. “Double-envelope” ballots—including soldiers’ votes—are counted separately at Central Election Committee headquarters. Final results are due November 4. (1/4)
Seats are first allocated proportionally, rounding down to whole seats. The remaining seats are distributed using Bader-Ofer, a formula favoring larger parties. Surplus vote agreements let two qualifying parties pool their strength to compete for those seats. (3/4)
How are Israeli election results calculated?
IPF explains, in brief: israelpolicyforum.org/2026/1…
How is an Israeli government formed?
IPF explains, in brief: israelpolicyforum.org/2026/1…
Israel Policy Forum retweeted
How do millions of votes become 120 Knesset seats?
Our latest explainer breaks down how Israeli election results are calculated—from the electoral threshold to surplus vote agreements—and why the math matters. israelpolicyforum.org/2026/1…
Israel Policy Forum retweeted
If current turnout numbers hold—which indicate highest Israeli turnout this century—it will force a critical decision. If most of the higher turnout is driven by voters supporting Ra'am and Joint List, it will bring the coalition numbers down but also the Jewish opposition 1/
Israel Policy Forum retweeted
Wondering who is voting where in Israelis elections today? Watch @GabrielEpsteinX for updates analysis --👇🏼
Based on the 12 p.m. polling station-level data, Arab/Druze/Circassian localities are currently showing 24.1% turnout, about 10% behind overall turnout of 31.5%. So far, the only sub-group tracking closely with overall national turnout are the Negev Bedouin (31.3%)
To be clear, this data reflects only the polling stations that are reporting updated data and excludes any Arab-Israeli votes from mixed cities and Jerusalem, which may be systematically different in terms of turnout. Still, 24.1% at this stage is notably higher than in 2022, when the aChord center estimated that Arab turnout was 17% only by 2 p.m. That election, turnout seemed to see a greater increase in the afternoon and evening. If that is the case here as well, we should expect a high-turnout Arab vote.
Israel Policy Forum retweeted
Election Day in Israel, finally. What to watch for today:
-Turnout numbers, esp in Arab-Israeli communities
-Provocations & violence in liberal bastions or Arab towns, to undermine the vote
-Response by Israel Police & party election observers
-Statements by politicians, incl re alleged voter fraud (looking at Likud here)
-Security incident, eg missiles or terror attack
Polls close at 10pm local. Official results to begin midnight. God help us all.
Israel Policy Forum retweeted
2 hours until the polls open for Israel's 26th Knesset elections. As always, hoping for a safe, secure, and high-turnout vote. A few links to track and accounts to follow:
Initial results will be posted shortly after polls close 10 p.m. local: votes26.bechirot.gov.il/
Track voter turnout throughout the day: mapvotes.bechirot.gov.il/
• National turnout updates will be posted every two hours by the Central Elections Committee (CEC), covering up to the hour prior: 11 a.m. (for 10 a.m., and so on), 1 p.m., 3 p.m., 5 p.m., 7 p.m., 9 p.m., and 11 p.m. for final turnout.
• Assuming all goes well, turnout by polling place will be published four times during the day: 10 a.m., 1 p.m., 5 p.m., and 9 p.m.
Follow the CEC's official account for updates: @electionknesset
And in no particular order, some very insightful accounts and professionals worth following to make sense of the day (feel free to add more in the comments, I am missing many excellent people):
Live updates, monitoring, and analysis:
• @israel_elects
• @ElectionOwl
• @harelcain
• @votesafterdark
• @hamalelections
Modelers, polling analysts, and data whizzes:
• @LittleMoiz
• @dahliasc
• @Michael_Gilead
• @gevakraoz
• @skarim_org
• @SmilgaNir
Reporters and journalists:
• @amirettin (via Telegram: t.me/no_politix)
• @Knesset99
• @mmagadli (via Telegram: t.me/magadli/)
• @BiniAshcknasy
• @DaphnaLiel
• @AmitSegal
• @shemeshmicha
And, of course, visit @IsraelPolicy4m's Project 120 to learn the parties, the blocs, the electoral process, where the polls left off on Friday, and to see the results as they come in live with analysis: israelpolicyforum.org/onetwe…
See everyone in a few hours.
How do millions of votes become 120 Knesset seats?
Our latest explainer breaks down how Israeli election results are calculated—from the electoral threshold to surplus vote agreements—and why the math matters. israelpolicyforum.org/2026/1…
Israel’s election is about more than left and right. On Israel Policy Pod, @ShiraEfron discusses with @mkoplow and @NeriZilber how concerns over institutions, the rule of law, and democracy could shape voters’ choices—including those who previously backed the governing coalition.
Watch or listen: israelpolicyforum.org/2026/1…
“Oct. 7 remains a devastating event, but Netanyahu’s supporters refuse to hang it around his neck or concede that Israel is losing more than it is winning." - @mkoplow in @nytopinion
