Prof. of Meteorology @CMUniversity Severe Weather & Climate, Hail, Tornadoes, Extreme Weather Resilience, Storm Chaser, Personal Account, Opinions my own
Mount Pleasant, MI
Joined November 2011
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Any Michigan folks with information regarding large hail near Kimball, MI please reply to this thread or drop me a DM as I'd like to verify. If anyone has Garrett Henry's contact information or knows of others who observed hail during this event please also reach out. #miwx
@ABC12WJRT @FOX2News - Would appreciate help here if we can spread the word to find out what people documented - extremely large hail approaching the state record photographed in St Clair County earlier today Garrett Henry.
@NWSDetroit Tracing down the information for this report, looks like this image originated from Richman Rd, St Clair county. Generally, from large number of public reports largest hail was in Kimball and slightly to the west.
Storm loop shows a rapidly right moving supercell behind a boundary that tracks across St Clair County, before continuing into Ontario.
Hey @united its great that you can't manage to get a flight to leave on time. My wife on her last trip had delays totaling over a day due to a missed international connection because of domestic issues, and here she is again, delayed and missing connections. #alwaysanexcuse
@NWSGrandRapids Series of MPING reports along River rd eastern Isabella county originated from myself, maximum size quarter, majority half-inch to dime, hail fog observed. Maps eastern extent of hail.
John Allen retweeted
Did you see me shoot the hail cannon? Recent data shows hail is hiking insurance rates more than hurricanes!!! Watch what they are studying here at @IBHS_org :
Seeing reports of a tornado resulting in lower-end damage and power outages near Freeland MI earlier today. Based on footage believe there is strong evidence to support this. The driver of this activity is a meso-low that developed from earlier convection over southern lake MI.
The feature lifted NE over MI, generating a trailing band of convective activity amid weakly unstable air, that then encountered increased instability with heating. The storm briefly propagated SE as it likely produced. There was also some intriguing backing of the winds.
John Allen retweeted
This helps both the forecasters at ECCC with weather warnings and the Northern Hail Project.
Please store any large or giant hail you may find using the steps provided in the infographic and contact the NHP. (2/2)
@NHP_Reports
New paper published today in @Nature explores how climate change will affect hailstorm intensity globally, led by Shiyi Zhang in collaboration with Qinghong Zhang, myself and Xiangyu Lin nature.com/articles/s41586-0…
John Allen retweeted
Correlation coefficients are everywhere and they can seriously mislead you. Beware!
They’re extremely sensitive to outliers.
In my #DataAnalytics and #MachineLearning courses, I use this interactive #Python dashboard to demonstrate just how dangerous correlation can be.
Add a single outlier, and suddenly you can manufacture “strong correlation” out of random! #DataScience
Now up to 5 tornadoes in Michigan from the surveys following the activity last night, with likely one or two more to come Takes us to 9 statewide so far this year, against an average of around 15. Active start to the season, and compounded by the flooding seen in the state.
Yet to see a report from the one warning further north, or the warnings closer to Wolf Lake/Ravenna, or southeast of GRR, but there are wind reports that probably still are on the list to look into.
With the flooding conditions across the northern LP, I don't think we'll see a survey being possible on that warning due either access or time, as @NWSGaylord has more important tasks to handle as yet more rain shows up late night tonight.