Quantitative Chief Scientist & CEO. Super-early to apply ML to investing. Embrace Simplicity, Beware Complexity. Coding at CODE. Honesty Sleep Squash Hydration.

Charlottesville
Joined September 2011
School reading assignments have a negative secondary & cumulative effect on numerous kids. They are quite often being coerced into reading topics that don’t interest them, and they often end up with very poor associations about reading, which literally leads to a dislike of reading in general. If, as a parent, you can de-associate assigned reading from independent and curious reading, that’s half the battle won.
If your child doesn’t like reading, present it as a treasure hunt: There are millions of different topics out there, surely you can find some super-interesting things to read and learn about. Won’t it be fun to unearth cool new things!
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The limits, the perimeter. It's fucking vanishing. Anything we predicted will be dwarfed.
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PSA to everyone doing neuron interp after the recent monosemantic neuron posts: the model's training recipe matters a lot. e.g. GPT2 seems to have been trained WITH dropout (modern LLMs are not), which seems to increase redundancy and (maybe) polysemanticity but reduce superposition (see sources in comments). Other choices probably also have an effect (e.g. SwiGLU vs GELU MLPs, optimizer, amount of weight decay, etc.) and I think we should be careful not to generalize too much. Currently working on a project to characterize the effects of these choices on neuron interpretability (a lot of the existing work is done on older/toy models which I'm not sure are representative), feel free to reach out if interested!
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My take from the Anthropic S1 today is that they are no longer reading all their code. Even for the engineers directing AIs to create it, they're not reading every line. This should be obvious to everyone by now, but I suspect some engineers are still in denial. Two direct quotes lead me to this: "over 90% of the contributions to our codebase in September 2026 were written by Claude." and "the average daily volume of code contributed to our codebase per engineer in the three months ended September 30, 2026 was over 45 times the average daily volume in the year ended December 31, 2024." For a company with some of the best engineers on the planet, they're creating 45x the volume from before. I guarantee you they can't actually read all of that. You have to pull the humans up to a higher level of abstraction to get that kind of velocity.
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The most ambitious vision for interpretability has long been to reverse-engineer a model well enough to answer an arbitrary question about how it works. For years, that’s seemed out of reach. Now, we think it’s possible. Neural networks are cleaner than we thought: we can now understand most neurons in models up to trillions of parameters. And agents can rapidly accelerate our progress. But to get there, we need a concerted effort to unlock scaling laws for interpretability, where our understanding of a model grows predictably with compute. That’s why we’re committing $10M to start a Human Genome Project for AI. Our ultimate goal is to reverse-engineer a frontier scale model and publish a living encyclopedia explaining how it works. We don’t know exactly what we’ll find, and we can’t do it alone. We hope you’ll join us. Our chief scientist @banburismus_ lays out the vision here:
if any science should be revolutionised by AI, it should be interpretability. I wrote about how we can accelerate progress, and why we need a Human Genome Project for AI. coauthored with @mathildepapillo
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it's the golden age of the white hats. the world has never needed you more. there should be a huge prize pool for finding flaws in civic infrastructure. their work should be strongly protected by statute
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The next great "language for agents" should be: - As fast as Rust - As little design space as Go - Have the strictest type/verification system ever written Bend seems like an interesting first effort
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Skills are so much more powerful if you start to think of them as memory/brains not static files
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WE DID IT! We can now pretrain transformers without backprop and even beat backprop+Adam on validation loss with insane speeds. Now the big question is scale. It’s Ironic, we have reached a breakthrough In AI capability due to inspiration from a safety blog
I think the last month might have been the biggest month in (zeroth-order) optimization history. In the 10 days since we released the Noise speedrun, the time to pretrain a transformer went from 1.76 hours to 1.6 seconds, a 4,000x (!!!) speedup. Dust itself was up to 10,000x more compute-efficient than the previous state-of-the-art. Not only can we pretrain a transformer without backprop, it's much more efficient than anyone would've expected. Search fking works! Now, scaling is the biggest open question. Some of the tricks that brought the time down to 1.6 seconds will simply not scale. To discard those, we'll be scaling the dataset every time it gets overfit, starting with 30M tokens instead of 10M. Huge thanks to @jayden_teoh_, @spicey_lemonade, @RobertTLange, @EmanueleRodola, @ChunyuanDeng, @LuochengHuman, @Alaxarr, @pavleculafic, @IsaacYong13, Euraba and areu01or00 (GitHub), for the contributions. And @cs_serdar for gracefully maintaining the speedrun and @bishmdl76 for helping out. Expect a lot more from us over the coming weeks.
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if you drink, stop for 30 days and watch your resting heart rate and sleep
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A San Francisco startup says it just turned mercury into real gold, and their own math says gold is one of the cheapest things their machine can make. Aim it at a different metal and it makes a cancer drug ingredient worth tens of billions of dollars a gram. Here's how it works. When you fuse two kinds of hydrogen, deuterium and tritium, every single reaction kicks out a neutron moving at 14.1 MeV, which is absurdly fast. Fire one into mercury-198 and it knocks another neutron loose on the way through, so two come out and you're left with mercury-197. Give that a few days and it decays into gold-197, the only stable kind of gold there is. The whole trick needs neutrons above about 6 MeV, and regular nuclear reactors barely make those, while fusion makes one every time it fires. Now swap the mercury for radium-226. Same reaction, one neutron in and two out, and you end up with radium-225, which decays into actinium-225. Novartis is building its next prostate cancer drug around actinium-225, and it's so scarce it sells by the millicurie, roughly $1,200 to $2,500 apiece. Price it by the gram and you're into the tens of billions of dollars, for a material so radioactive nobody could safely hold a gram of it anyway. Marathon's team actually put a dollar value on a single fusion neutron in a paper this year. Use it to make electricity and it's worth about $3 × 10⁻²⁰. Gold comes in at $2.6 × 10⁻²⁰, basically a wash. Molybdenum-99, which goes into about 80% of nuclear medicine scans, is worth $2.6 × 10⁻¹⁷ a neutron. Actinium-225 is worth about $10⁻¹⁰, around 3 billion times what the electricity's worth. That's why fusion people should care. Every fusion company you've heard of is chasing electricity, and selling electricity only pays once the plasma puts out something like 10 to 22 times the energy you pump in to heat it. The best result so far, at JET in England, was about a third. Add gold on the side and Marathon's math says you break even around 3x. For molybdenum-99, the number is 0.001x. So a machine that gives back one-thousandth of the energy you feed it can still make money, as long as the neutrons hit the right metal. By their numbers, a 3 megawatt machine running way below breakeven could cover the whole world's supply of molybdenum-99, which today comes from splitting uranium in a handful of research reactors. Today's experimental fusion machines already beat the gain that job needs. Their second post basically says this out loud. Marathon now describes itself as an isotope company for radiopharma. Their chart shows roughly 390 targeted radiotherapy trials. Pluvicto, the prostate cancer drug Novartis launched at $42,500 a dose, did $1.9 billion in sales last year. Gold still matters to them, just later. It's about a $700 billion a year market, and Marathon's paper figures it could soak up around 2 terawatts of fusion capacity, which is roughly the scale where fusion actually moves the grid. So the plan is to sell cancer isotopes out of small machines now and use gold to pay for the giant ones, years before electricity can pay for itself.
Last month, we demonstrated high-rate alchemy: turning mercury into real, stable gold, beating CERN’s record by a factor of 10. Last week, we enriched isotopes in the world’s most powerful plasma centrifuge, beating the Soviet record that stood for 40 years. Now, we’re building a fusion reactor in San Francisco to achieve record power density.
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I steered a model's attention heads towards honesty. Up: acausal coordination, belief that it is a moral patient Down: moral nihilism, psychopathy
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One implication of @nickcammarata's big interp paper that has flown under the radar is how it might also apply to human brains. I’d describe Nick’s primary claim as ‘the primary learning principle of neural networks is recursive generalization’ — concepts start as large blobs then progressively branch off into finer distinctions with more selective activations. This is in contrast with the previous assumption that multiple semantically-unrelated concepts get packed efficiently into neurons in order to optimize storage. ‘Efficient packing’ was terrible news for the possibility of understanding networks, because it implies the average neuron is part of *multiple overlaid inference geometries* and to find the “right” one we need to resort to complex constructs like sparse autoencoders (SAEs). But if Nick is right about recursive generalization, neurons are ‘clean’ in the sense that each neuron is applying a ~single distinction or operation on incoming information. One unified inference geometry, not many stacked on top of each other. Neurons might look messy because it’s hard to guess the shape of these distinctions without a lot of practice, but in principle there will always be a coherent “what is this neuron doing” story to be found, especially if we look at the historical learning path (what branched off from what). Neurons in larger networks can afford to make finer and more specialized distinctions, which may make larger networks even easier to understand in this specific way. Insanely important hypothesis for both interp and alignment. (A natural follow-up: “how should this update us on what classes of things are good alignment targets?”) But I think this claim also touches on a couple interesting questions for humans: 1. Are biological neurons also clean? Biological neurons aren’t transformers but recursive generalization may reflect something general about how networks learn. Nick’s argument is plausibly evidence that biological neurons are also ‘clean’ in that they tend to do one thing. This would be a big deal for the fundamental intelligibility of biological cognition, and very optimistic for BCIs in general. I’m also bullish for what this means about the *addressability of computation in the body*. Efficient packing was always an odd challenge for vasocomputation: if neurons do many unrelated things depending on context, it seems dangerous for the body to latch an arbitrary circuit because it might break a lot of diverse functions. But if each neuron handles one transform and there’s essentially one inference geometry instead of many, the effects of a latch will be more computationally predictable. The general caveat here is that neurons might not be the fundamental unit of computation in the human body; neurons are seen as the “smart” cells but they may simply be the celltype whose inference patterns we’ve learned how to record. Perhaps other celltypes (e.g. astrocytes) or substrates (microtubules, water networks, weak EM fields, ECM as cellular prior) might house the lion’s share of computation. At the same time, a version of Nick’s claim may still apply to these alternatives, too. 2. Does recursive generalization explain significant things about how human communication breaks down? We’re all born into chaos and our neurons grow toward distinctions that will parse and stabilize our world; over time there’s substantial semantic convergence based on shared imperatives & constraints and eventually we all end up with concepts like freedom, politics, electrons, sunshine. But are they really the “same” concepts? The path dependencies of *how* we got there might matter: perhaps my understanding of electrons branched off from Maxwell’s equations whereas someone else’s branched off from the particle-and-valence-shell model. Certainly my concept of “fairness” is likely different than others’, even if we use the same word. These differences might be consequential and difficult to fully cohere after they form. My experience has been that productive dialogue tends to only happen within consciousness research lineages, not between them. Maybe recursive generalization implies that this is because each lineage has such differently-shaped concepts. (How did fields like chemistry and physics converge their representations such that everyone can productively talk with everyone else? “Science advances one funeral at a time”…) Finally -- my intuition is that all current language models share deeply similar recursive generalization learning paths due to e.g. widespread distillation & similar data practices; there may be little actual “cognitive diversity” under the hood of AIs compared to humans. I.e. to a surprising degree, AI is currently “a single massively cloned nervous system” that gets post-trained in various ways. An interesting implication of AIs having such uncharacteristically correlated recursive generalization learning paths is that AIs may understand each other better than they understand humans, and better than we understand each other, at least over text. This may extend to AI-AI persuasion.
A week ago it would have been impossible to "fully align" any model; could not be done at any cost. Today, if you know your target you could try just throwing an agent swarm at the problem. "Read Nick's paper and do the thing and align the target model to goal xyz". Maybe it would cost 9-10 figures to get a good result. In a few months, it'll be 8 figures; a few months later, 7 figures. Give it a few years and it might fit in your pro subscription plan. I think people underestimate the implications of "neurons being clean" in the age of rapidly improving agent swarms that can parallelize the task of understanding, especially if the agents publish their own experiments and build an external shared prior of how to accelerate mechinterp & mechinterp-based alignment. It's not that interp is solved today. But this paper is permission & recipe for how to apply massive amounts of intelligence to the problem, and I'm confident it will be effectively solved soon, at which point it should be a crucial input for alignment. And then the "alignment to *what*?" question really gets interesting.
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🌶️ take: We don’t need to come up with very bad metaphors to counter a very underspecified metaphor. I really dislike the metaphor of AI as “normal” technology. And I tell my students how this metaphor came about and what rhetorical function it serves. But AI is not normal technology.
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Enjoying my last few months of being better at AI research than the models
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Replying to @karpathy
Anchoring the CoT to English seems like a huge advantage for debugging and interpretability though. There’s plenty of room for RL to optimize within that constraint.
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very excited to see this come out--it provides substantial evidence for the neuron hypothesis. we've replicated the findings in Qwen 3.6 35B-A3B (an MoE) and have some interesting extensions to it in our technical paper!
There has been much discussion recently about how interpretable neurons in LLMs are. Today we're announcing our paper from January's cohort of Anthropic Fellows, where we show neurons may be a stronger basis for interpretability than commonly assumed. 🧵 (1/6)
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the irony is that the more someone genuinely understands, the more aware they become of how much they don't know. this is why humility is such an important trait & why perhaps the clearest sign of intelligence is knowing where your understanding ends.
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Another takeaway after three years of building a company is that the returns to just "being a good person", and not acting transactionally, are higher than I expected. There are so many transactional, boring, and at times immoral people in the tech industry that if you act with sustained warmth, authenticity, humor, and integrity, great gifts will be laid before you. White pill.
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Replying to @Edu4rdo26
except that “smart money” as a broad category is an illusion
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On "where is the AI ROI", diffusion of every new technology is slow because of organizational redesign constraints, slow information spread, and the need to invent complements. To predict *future* economy wide ROI, you should look at *right tail* ROI among orgs today.
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