Financial Advisor of 27 years at independent firm. The Street refers to us as “retail brokers”. I prefer “works for real people”
Santa Clarita, CA
Joined October 2009
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James Forsyth retweeted
They made up a polling firm, made up polls, and got included in major aggregators…
Their polls were featured on MSNOW.
James Forsyth retweeted
An LA hospitality group runs 25 bars, many of them right by Dodger Stadium. Every extra playoff game means packed bars. An early exit means lost revenue they were counting on.
So they hedged it. They put $60,000 on Kalshi on the Dodgers *not* making the World Series.
The Dodgers lost the NLCS to the Brewers. The position returned nearly 2x, helping cover the playoff business that *never* came.
A Columbia law professor told Fortune it works like “a form of bespoke insurance.”
Read the full story here: fortune.com/2026/10/19/predi…
James Forsyth retweeted
California’s billionaire tax was supposed to raise $100 billion.
Now a new study estimates $30 billion in collections against $39 billion in lost income tax revenue.
When you chase away the people paying the bills, everyone else gets stuck with the tab.
James Forsyth retweeted
ICYMI. At least $SPX is near record highs. Imagine the impetus to monetize equity in second homes if that was not the case.
(Silver lining [pardon the double entendre]?Looking for a beach house?)
James Forsyth retweeted
In the last week of September, DeepSeek models processed more tokens on OpenRouter than OpenAI, Google, Anthropic and xAI models combined.
James Forsyth retweeted
Holy cow.
Short interest (as % of shares outstanding) in the Russell 2000 has risen to the 99.8th percentile.
JPMorgna via @BlakeMillardCFA
James Forsyth retweeted
So you want to “tax the rich”, do ya?
The LA “Mansion Tax” in its first 3 years has resulted in:
* a revenue DECREASE of $452 million
* 9100 new home constructions blocked (1000 of which were “affordable housing”)
* 16,650 full time construction jobs lost
James Forsyth retweeted
Our tracker of hyperscaler off balance sheet liabilities shows $3.8 trillion as of Sept 30, up $700BN from June 30.
Adding $250BN in hyperscaler IG debt, the DV01 issued by the AI ecosystem in Q3 was about 25% higher than all Treasury issuance
That's why yields keep rising
Bob Farrell’s Rule #1:
“Markets tend to return to the mean over time.”
James Forsyth retweeted
REALITY CHECK: THINK YOUR DAD'S GAS WAS CHEAP?
It wasn't.
Gas is over four bucks and everybody's melting down. So let's do something the media never does. Let's actually check the numbers.
Go back to 1970. Gas was 36 cents a gallon. Sounds like heaven, right?
It wasn't.
Because the average American made three dollars and forty cents an hour. Do the math. Grandpa worked about 6 minutes to earn a gallon of gas. Right now, with this Middle East spike, you work about 8. So yeah, that part stings a little.
But here's what they'll never tell you.
Grandpa's car got 13 miles to the gallon. Yours gets 25. That same gallon takes you TWICE as far.
So mile for mile, even with prices jumping, you're paying about a third LESS to drive than he did in 1970!
And this spike? Temporary. One year ago gas was $3.14 a gallon, the cheapest it had been in twenty years.
So next time somebody tells you gas has never been this bad, smile and tell them to go ask grandpa. He'll set them straight.
James Forsyth retweeted
Bengals rookie DT Landon Robinson pulled up to his NFL debut representing Navy in full Service Dress 🫡 🇺🇸
James Forsyth retweeted
US federal budget, 2002 vs. 2025:
Receipts: $1.85tn → $5.24tn (+183%)
Outlays: $2.01tn → $7.01tn (+249%)
Deficit: -$0.16tn → -$1.77tn
Revenues nearly tripled. Spending rose $5tn against $3.4tn of new revenue.
For every extra dollar collected since 2002, the government spent $1.48.
It is a spending problem. No tax rise closes a gap created by massive spending.
(Source: OMB)
What if I’m saving in gold? Does that count in the official savings rate—or only after I sell it and put the proceeds in the bank?
James Forsyth retweeted
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon on the $500 billion Nvidia deal: "there's $9 trillion sitting in US money market funds. there's a hundred trillion dollars in US equities. will the returns from all of these things be ample? of course not - there'll be winners and losers"
this is the seven of them explaining what a single gigawatt actually costs, what happens to the assets if the companies using them run out of cash, and how fast this is being built compared to the internet
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink: "each gigawatt costs 50 to 60 billion. in the United States alone we're going to need over 70 gigawatts"
"this is the very beginning, like what it was when I started in the mortgage-backed securities market in the 1970s"
Jensen Huang on the failure case: "even if the players run out of cash, there will always be a customer for that computing platform"
"it's not Nvidia's money. this is all third party independent long-term capital"
bookmark & watch the full conversation, then read the article below ↓
James Forsyth retweeted
100 yrs of stock market: From 1926 through 2025 (30k stocks analyzed) - just 27.6% of stocks outperform the market / 60% of stocks incurred wealth reductions / the median stock returned -6.9%.
46 firms accounted for half of the wealth created by the stock market ($91 trillion net wealth creation).
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.…
James Forsyth retweeted
Europe never recovered from 2008.
In 2008 the EU economy was larger than America’s. Today the US produces nearly 50% more than the entire European Union combined with per capita GDP almost double Europe’s average.
America chose innovation, energy abundance, and growth.
Europe chose regulation, green self-sabotage, and welfare bloat.
The gap is now a canyon, and it’s still widening.
So don’t Europize America.
James Forsyth retweeted
Jensen Huang just made the case that the smartest person in the room is now the most replaceable person on earth.
Huang: “The definition of smart is somebody who’s intelligent, solve problems, technical. But I find that that’s a commodity. And we’re about to prove that artificial intelligence is able to handle that part easiest.”
The skill you built your entire identity around was the first thing the machine replicated.
Not the hardest part. The easiest.
Huang: “People who are able to see around corners are truly, truly smart. And their value is incredible. To be able to preempt problems before they show up, just because you feel the vibe.”
Huang: “That vibe came from a combination of data, analysis, first principle, life experience, wisdom, sensing other people.”
The vibe is not intuition. It is decades of failed bets, human friction, and first-principles thinking compressed into a single read no model can replicate.
You cannot prompt your way to it. You earn it by surviving things that had no instructions.
Huang: “I think long term the definition of smart is someone who sits at that intersection of being technically astute, but human empathy and having the ability to infer the unspoken, around the corners, the unknowables.”
Every institution you ever passed through graded you on the one thing the machine now does for free.
The thing they never tested you on is the only thing that still matters.
Huang: “And that person might actually score horribly on the SAT.”
The SAT did not measure intelligence. It measured obedience to structure.
The future does not reward what you can solve inside a framework someone handed you. It rewards what you can see when no framework exists.
The machine did not replace human intelligence.
It revealed that what we spent a century calling intelligence was never intelligence at all.
The people who memorized the answers are about to work for the people who sensed the questions before anyone thought to ask.
James Forsyth retweeted
One of investors' biggest mistakes is assuming the winners of the last decade will lead the next one.
Markets don't work that way.
Capital flows are cyclical, leadership rotates, and valuation gaps eventually close.
Latin America may be one of the most compelling opportunities of the next cycle.
tavicosta.substack.com/p/the…
James Forsyth retweeted
The biggest heist in American history — exposed.
The Federal Reserve just confirmed it:
U.S. NGOs are sitting on $14.2 TRILLION in combined assets — your tax money.
That’s more than the entire GDPs of India + Japan + Germany combined.
Congress didn’t just spend the national debt…
They racketed HALF of it into the single largest corruption empire on the planet.
This is the missing half of the U.S. debt crisis.
The root of the waste, the fraud, the open borders, the endless foreign handouts, and the shadow government that answers to no one.
They took your money.
Your children’s money.
Your grandchildren’s money…
and handed it to unaccountable organizations that grow richer while America bleeds.
This isn’t “charity.”
This is the greatest money-laundering operation in history — protected by Congress.
The racket is bigger than most countries.
And it’s funded by you.