Research Analyst @FDD focusing on Iran, Israel and China | Published @WashInstitute and @criticalthreats | @IRIglobal alum
Washington, DC
Joined March 2015
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I told @GBNEWS that Iran today is not comparable to Iraq or Afghanistan in earlier eras. Iranian society is overwhelmingly anti-Islamist with a strong national identity, highly educated, and already familiar with political processes like election campaigns and party formation.
Third time’s the charm? Larijani’s elimination initially drew backlash because he was seen as the "pragmatic" figure who could serve as Washington's interlocutor. The U.S. then turned to Ghalibaf, followed by IRGC commander Vahidi. With both avenues exhausted, Washington now approached SNSC Secretary Rezai, the man who had rejected the very MoU that had allowed Tehran to repatriate oil revenues.
The miscalculation is assuming any single individual, including Mojtaba Khamenei, can moderate the regime’s behavior. Sure, rivalries within the Islamic Republic exist, but its leaders remain united in pursuing maximalist objectives through escalation, increasingly driven by revenge and paranoia.
fdd.org/analysis/tehrans-neg…
State Department condemned Iran’s latest executions, how about sanctioning the judges issuing these sentences? Washington hasn’t used the human rights sanctions authority since January. 10 judges sanctioned by allies but not US:
fdd.org/analysis/10-iranian-…
زندگی سه جوان که به ناحق گرفته شد. سه خانواده که از هم پاشید.
روز دوشنبه ۱۳ مهر ۱۴۰۵، رژیم جمهوری اسلامی علیرضا رئیسی ۲۱ ساله و علیرضا سپاهی ۲۴ ساله را پس از محاکمه‌های غیرعلنی مبتنی بر اعترافات اجباری اعدام کرد. چند روز پیش از آن نیز سیاوش جمشیدی خیرآبادی، ورزشکار تکواندو، اعدام شد. هر سه نفر به دلیل شرکت در اعتراضات دی ماه ۱۴۰۴ هدف قرار گرفتند.
در پس این اعدام‌ها، روایت‌هایی تکان‌دهنده از رنج انسانی نهفته است:
- علیرضا رئیسی تنها چند ساعت پس از کشته شدن پسرعمویش در جریان اعتراضات بازداشت شد. پدر او که اکنون در زندان به سر می‌برد، با چشمان بسته به مراسم خاکسپاری مخفیانه علیرضا برده شد، بی‌آنکه هرگز به او نشان دهند پیکر پسرش کجا به خاک سپرده شده است.
- علیرضا سپاهی، دانشجوی دانشگاه، پیش از اعدام در زندان با نامزدش، مهشاد، ازدواج کرد. مهشاد همچنان در زندان به سر می‌برد و دوران محکومیت پنج‌ساله خود را می‌گذراند. مادر علیرضا نیز از آخرین وداع با پسرش پیش از اعدام محروم شد.
رژیم جمهوری اسلامی طی ۴۷ سال گذشته، خواسته‌های مسالمت‌آمیز جوانان ایران را با خشونت، محاکمه‌های مخفیانه و اعدام پاسخ داده است. مردم ایران سزاوار عدالت، پاسخگو شدن عاملان این جنایت‌ها و آینده‌ای عاری از ترور و هراس هستند.
ALT Images of Alireza Raeisi, Alireza Sepahi, and Siavash Jamshidi Kheirabadi next to a noose, the flag of the Islamic Republic of Iran, a prison watchtower, and lit candles. The U.S. Department of State logo is also on the graphic. Text in Persian reads, “Three young lives stolen.”
Scattered anti-regime demonstrations are growing in Iran, but the January crackdown showed that street mobilization alone cannot bring systemic change.
The U.S.-Israeli campaign helped weaken the repression apparatus, but the ceasefire cut that effort short.
Although weakening Iran's internal security forces was not a primary objective of the joint campaign, many of these personnel had gone into hiding or deserted by late March as ordinary Iranians shared intelligence on their locations to facilitate strikes.
Degrading this apparatus is Washington’s most decisive way to maximize leverage in any renewed conflict by empowering the regime’s only existential threat.
For more context on the damage inflicted on security forces, and the regime’s efforts to rebuild, read the full analysis: fdd.org/analysis/irans-civic…
See our OSINT investigation mapping the strikes: fdd.org/analysis/targeting-i…
Janatan Sayeh retweeted
Just over one month before the largest anti-regime protest in the history of the Islamic Republic (the Dey Protests/ Lion and Sun Uprising), my @FDD colleague @JanatanSayeh and I explained how Cyrus the Great Day - a relatively newer holiday in Iran - was a critical measure of anti-regime sentiment and growing Iranian nationalism.
In the piece, we connected the celebration of this day (which was sadly mocked by some in the analytical community and even some in the diaspora in 2015, 2016, and 2017) to the larger wave of nationwide protests Iran saw in 2017-2020 and again with the WLF movement in 2022-3.
This day and Iran’s ancient heritage is the intellectual and identitarian engine for Iranian protests. And will continue to be.
fdd.org/analysis/iranians-ch…
I tracked about 40 of such clashes in 2026, with Iran’s JMM claiming most. The group’s rhetoric has been strictly nationalistic since the four groups merged in December 2025. Unclear if Washington sees the group an extension of the sanctioned Jaish alAdl.
longwarjournal.org/archives/…
Two mines exploded along the route of a convoy carrying IRGC forces and members of its Fatemiyoun fighters, an Iran-backed Afghan Shiite militia, near the Kaleh military base in the Pirsuran area of Taftan, in Iran’s southeastern Sistan and Baluchestan province, local Baluch rights group Haalvsh reported.
Haalvsh said powerful blasts were heard in the area following the explosions. No precise casualty figures were immediately available.
Janatan Sayeh retweeted
🚨"That's a wake up call for the Islamic republic that they can maybe push these boundaries."
Peter asks Janatan Sayeh, Research analyst at Foundation for Defence of Democracies reacts to claims the U.S feared a drone attack in the UK.
@petercardwell | @JanatanSayeh
Janatan Sayeh retweeted
جاناتان سایح، تحلیلگر مسائل خاورمیانه در بنیاد دفاع از دموکراسی‌ها، با اشاره به سفر بنیامین نتانیاهو به امارات متحده عربی گفت پیمان ابراهیم از مرحله عادی‌سازی روابط به همکاری امنیتی رسیده و امارات می‌تواند به‌عنوان پلی میان اسرائیل و دیگر کشورهای عربی عمل کند.
او افزود همکاری امنیتی ابوظبی و اسرائیل ممکن است عمیق‌تر شود، بدون این‌که امارات به طور علنی وارد یک ائتلاف ضد جمهوری اسلامی شود.
Janatan Sayeh retweeted
امارات فعالیت بانک ملی ایران را ممنوع کرد.
گفتگو با جاناتان سایح، تحلیلگر بنیاد دفاع از دموکراسی‌ها در برنامه #۲۴بافردادفرحزاد
@JanatanSayeh
During the Iran-Iraq War, the Islamic Republic had more room to cast regime survival as the defense of Iran itself against external attacks, while its domestic enemies remained narrow ideological or ethnic movements.
Today, it sees an existential threat spread across every sector of society, ethnicity and city street, driving it to further militarize its support base as a first line of defense against unrest from within:
-Nightly weapons parades aside, civilians are taught to handle guns in streets
-Women, once cast in 80s propaganda as caregivers, now march in armed battalions alongside pink missiles and military vehicles
-Education system deepening ideological indoctrination even after students watched IRGC turn schools into bases
-Calling on supporters to form "human chains" around infrastructure during wartime
-Public hangings of protesters desensitizing the public to state violence
The regime has lost far fewer personnel than the roughly 40,000 unarmed protestors killed in January, yet it is pouring far more effort into repasturing its own support base for the next confrontation.
ویدیوهای منتشرشده در رسانه‌های جمهوری اسلامی نشان می‌دهد حکومت در راهپیمایی «رزمایش جان‌فدایان» در تهران به طور گسترده از کودکان و نوجوانان دختر و پسر به همراه اسلحه‌های رزمی استفاده کرده است.
در یکی از ویدیوها، نوجوانی خطاب به بنیامین نتانیاهو، نخست‌وزیر اسرائیل، می‌گوید: «نتانیاهو، تو را با این اسلحه ترور می‌کنم.»
ویدیوی دیگری نیز مسعود پزشکیان، رییس دولت جمهوری اسلامی، را در میان نوجوانی نشان می‌دهد که لباس نظامی بر تن دارند.
Janatan Sayeh retweeted
Yesterday's bipartisan 262-159 House vote was an important step for more than Russia sanctions. The bill also includes a version of the Solidify Iran Sanctions Act, an effort @FDDAction has supported to ensure critical Iran sanctions authorities don't expire at the end of this year.
As @SenatorTimScott noted, preserving these authorities will help sustain economic pressure on Tehran.
More on why this matters👇🏼
fddaction.org/policy-alerts/…
In a fitting tribute to Lindsey Graham, the House has passed the Russia and Iran sanctions bill he championed.
It includes a version of my Solidify Iran Sanctions Act, extending key Iran sanctions authorities that will help enable Operation Economic Outcast and hold all our adversaries to account.
The bill now heads to @POTUS.
Sanctioning Iranian airlines is a good start, and these should be the next steps:
• Press partners to bar sanctioned Iranian airlines from their airspace and airports.
• Seek forfeiture of U.S.-built aircraft transferred to Iran in violation of export controls when they land in cooperative jurisdictions.
• Sanction ground handlers, maintenance firms, fuel suppliers, ticketing agents and banks that keep Iranian carriers operating.
• Push foreign airlines to end codeshare agreements that preserve Iranian carriers’ international access through partner airlines.
• Expand Commerce Department denial orders and tighten end-user and no-reexport-to-Iran requirements to block aircraft parts and dual-use components from reaching Iran through third countries.
U.S. Sanctions on Iranian Aviation Should Be Followed by Operational Isolation
New FDD Policy Brief from @JanatanSayeh: bit.ly/46ma65Y
Janatan Sayeh retweeted
جاناتان سایح، تحلیلگر مسائل خاورمیانه در بنیاد دفاع از دموکراسی‌ها، گفت از نگاه اسرائیل، فشار اقتصادی آمریکا به‌تنهایی جایگزین مهار جمهوری اسلامی نیست، بلکه بخشی از راهبرد تضعیف توان نظامی و اقتصادی تهران است. او افزود اسرائیل همچنان نگران بازسازی توان موشکی جمهوری اسلامی و تقویت دوباره نیروهای نیابتی، به‌ویژه حزب‌الله، است و تهدید ایران را همچنان جدی می‌داند.
او همچنین گفت اسرائیل ثبات و استقلال کشورهای منطقه، از جمله سوریه، را به نفع امنیت خود می‌داند، اما نسبت به گسترش نفوذ ترکیه در سوریه نیز نگرانی دارد و آن را لزوماً متفاوت از نفوذ جمهوری اسلامی ارزیابی نمی‌کند.
The regime says cuts to gas subsidies are inevitable but it’s struggling to avoid a repeat of 2019’s overnight price shock. The rial has crossed 2m/$, point-to-point inflation is 88%, and Iran’s police chief is warning of unrest over fuel & economy. This comes as Bessent announced more measures.
Iran has threatened to block all oil flow if it can’t export its own, so wouldn’t be surprised if it doubles down on its military escalation doctrine. The regime may also hope full-scale war again keeps the street quiet. Changing that calculus means making Tehran fear that uprisings can erupt even during total war.
Janatan Sayeh retweeted
dailywire.com/news/in-iran-b…
Expanded support would require strikes not only on repression forces and military figures but also on the regime’s political leadership. In parallel, select dissident networks in major urban areas should be equipped to confront their oppressors. As mid- and lower-level personnel see leadership either eliminated or in hiding, while dissident cells operate across key cities, it reinforces the sense that the regime’s end is near and forces a choice between holding the line at great risk or defecting.
Janatan Sayeh retweeted
In this piece, @JanatanSayeh and I examine Khamenei Jr.’s latest appointments and conclude: “This should put an end to Washington’s hope that pragmatists inside the regime can lead the country down a different path.”
iranintl.com/en/202608135778
My two cents on Trump being reactive vs proactive on Iran: “pressure from the U.S. creates avenues that could allow openings for a two-track strategy: one targeting Iranian regime insiders who are unhappy with leadership and another spurring massive protests inside the country.”
Trump snaps back to economic warfare in struggle to make Iran tap out
thehill.com/policy/defense/6…
