Professor @Harvard, Director @HarvardBizGov, Senior Fellow @PIIE, teaches Ec10, words @nytopinion, proprietor https://nitter.gq/t.co/4eOTjrd0x4, was Chair of Pres Obama's CEA.
Cambridge, MA
Joined April 2011
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I'm thrilled to be launching Econvitals today. It's been the main way in which I have been tracking and understanding the economy over the last several months. And I decided I might as well share it with all of you--for free.
Has a combo of website, email lists & social media.
Jason Furman retweeted
🧵on the AI audit of Saez and Zucman and by implication Piketty (or PSZ together):
Since some are objecting to what the computer found, here's a list of biases in this trio's work that were found by humans over the last decade.
1. AI should play a large role before we see anything from anyone so it comes out right in the first place.
2. AI should play a big role in retrospective replications.
3. Piketty-Saez-Zucman work has many flaws that all go one direction.
Spreading slop hurts all three causes.
Jason Furman retweeted
Markets after the GDP and PCE release, by 11:05 ET: 2-year yield -8 bp, 10-year yield -6 bp, dollar index -0.2%, S&P 500 futures -0.1%. Fed funds priced for after Dec 9: -2 bp, from 4.11% to 4.09%, or +22 bp vs the 3.875% target midpoint.
Best roundup on this issue I've seen:
Not sure what is more striking—how bad the research audited here seems to be, or the thought that a lot of other research might come out similarly shaky.
Via @tylercowen / @MargRev – saez-zucman-audit-replicatio…
BEA has quarterly GDP data back to 1947. Of the 318 quarters it tracks this was the third most negative contribution from net exports (and the second largest was 2025-Q1).
That is, much of the consumption, investment, etc was imported--so take 3.3pp of GDP off what those added.
Very strong GDP numbers, a touch higher than expected. More later from me, for now you can read @econvitals
Inflation came in pretty much as expected which is, well, quite high.
In Econvitals charts the solid dots are compared to what people thought yesterday, those are all close to zero. The hollow circles are absolute, those are all quite high.
The PCE-based Ecumenical Underlying Inflation measure for September was 3.0%. Here are the different pieces that go into it, the median of a number of different inflation series, all re-meaned to match the mean of the PCE the Fed targets.
If you believe that mindless AI evaluations are legitimate then why would you spread the evaluation of Saez & @gabriel_zucman without first subjecting it to its own mindless AI evaluation?
I just did and it turns out the critic's errors all go in one direction.
Finally, that headline 97% of the errors go in one direction? Well, that was guaranteed by the method it used.
Here is the anonymous site: saez-zucman-audit-replicatio…
