Jessica

GM

Seasonality suggests bitcoin:native hasn’t bottomed. Price action suggests it has. I’m a big fan of patterns and seasonality when analyzing markets. I use plenty of technicals and pivots, and I mainly trade based on time rather than price. So why do I believe the bottom is in if it doesn’t match seasonality? Because before patterns, price, fractals and pivots, you need price action confirmation. You need to validate a pattern by analyzing how price behaves. That’s something many people seem to lack an understanding of. To validate X, you need Y. If a pattern points to X, but Y doesn’t confirm it, the chances of that pattern playing out decrease. Eventually, BTC will break the 4y cycle. It won’t keep repeating the same historical tendencies forever. People who believe it will are living in fantasy land. You need to be open to the possibility that historical patterns can break, something many people still don’t understand. Another important point for the sub-90 IQ trolls... I’m a swing trader. I’m a higher timeframe trader. I aim to catch the big, meaningful moves, and my strategy is based on trading the trend. I’ve been publicly positioned since 62K–65K, and I’ll CONTINUE to be bullish because I’m positioned from lower. But people keep trying to reinvent what I’ve said to fit their own narrative. The reality is that I’m in from lower, and I’m bullish since then. I’m not a scalping degenerate chasing dopamine on the 5 minute chart and trying to 100x a portfolio. I trade in a slow, steady and precise manner, something else many people on this app seem not to understand. Anyway, the moral here is that price action and structure come before validating pivots or seasonality. BTC isn’t going to keep bottoming in Q4 and topping in Q4 forever. In due time, we will see who is right, an who is wrong.

This is the calmest weekend ever for bitcoin:native Literally a stable coin this weekend with no liquidation wicks MM and CEX are too worried restructuring to meet EU and US compliances Democrats sweeping Congress signaling much harder regulations might be the reason Wouldn't it be nice if regulations become so hard again against market manipulations? You miss Gensler now after the brutal 2026 don't you? Will make a market update today for subscribers. Until then stay safe. Don't get liquidated and extracted on shitcoins before the actual bull market begins

bitcoin:native has literally never made a new low after forming a weekly HH. Of course, that’s based on BTC having already impulsed from the bottom. So, based on history, this next low should be a HL. BTC is already down 14%, and HTF market structure has shifted, so it’s likely we’re close to forming one. If we somehow make a new LL after forming a weekly HH, I’ll probably deactivate my account.😂

Funny how the targets just naturally get lower and lower. If you’d been told at 87K that you’d get the chance to buy bitcoin:native below 80K, you’d have clicked buy without hesitation. Now that we’re here, literally nobody is interested. It’s kind of funny how that works. Just the psychology of the game. People say they’re going to buy or long a certain area, but when price gets there, they lower their entry even further. 6 months from now, people will look back an realize just how much of a generational entry this was.

We really don’t want to see bitcoin:native lose either of these two areas. If my thesis is correct & the bottom is truly in, you’d expect these levels to hold. If we start breaking below... we are going directly to 50K. We’re at some major zones now on the HTF.

Despite the aggressive hunts on bitcoin:native USDT.D remains in its downtrend, which puts the bigger picture into perspective. If the bottom is truly in, we shouldn’t see USDT.D fill any of the imbalance from its initial move higher (the same move that pushed BTC up) That would give people a re-entry too close to the bottom.

I believe this chart is extremely important given the current context. A lot of people are looking at S&P 500, Nasdaq, crypto and the midterms, and speculating about whether the bitcoin:native bottom is in. I don’t want to repeat myself, you already know what I think, but with BTC down 13.5% from its highs, I think highlighting posts like this can bring a bit more clarity to the situation. For the most part, BTC has bottomed in Q4 throughout its history. That’s seasonality, and it’s why people still expect the same thing to happen this cycle. I want to show why I believe that may not be the case. The BTC bottom is already in, and what we’re likely seeing now is the market derisking as legacy markets fall off a cliff, with crypto simply following the correlation. As shown in my image, BTC has formed 3 significant lows in every cycle, regardless of seasonality. Back in 2023, we saw a bottom form that is almost identical to what we've seen this year, with the second and third major lows very close together and formed by sweeps. Structurally speaking, we’ve formed the traditional corrective bottom. Seasonality wise, we haven’t formed the traditional cycle bottom. So, what am I implying here? I’m implying that, structurally, the market has bottomed and the bear market is over. So either you have more faith in market structure or in seasonality. I have more faith in structure because seasonality can change. I find it extremely hard to believe BTC will form a new low in Q4. From a structural standpoint, that doesn’t match any typical cycle either. If I am wrong, well then I lose alot of money.

Seeing as everyone is panicking again, I want to make my position clear. I’m still swing long. I’m still holding all of my spot, and I’m still in my full sized long from 62.6K, as I’ve mentioned numerous times. My plan hasn’t changed. I remain bullish on bitcoin:native . I haven’t suddenly turned bullish, I’ve been bullish since 60Ks. What we’re seeing in legacy markets looks like the typical Q4 derisking after midterms. The difference this time is that BTC is substantially higher. As I write this, the Nasdaq is down 6% on the day and the S&P 500 is down 3.4%. Nasdaq is 14% off its highs, while the S&P 500 is down 6%. In my view, this is the final shakeout before we transition into the true bull phase, a pattern we’ve seen in every cycle. People will panic and expect the worst. That’s happened in every cycle. That’s why I’m reposting my stance: to remind everyone where I stand and how I’m positioned in the market.

OIL dropping marked bitcoin:native 's local bottom. Following this confluence, BTC rallied 5% shortly afterwards. It was a useful signal to watch for short term relief.

bitcoin:native Sharing an unpopular thought: "local bottom is already in" Don't miss this last buy opportunity

You don't short $BTC in a bull market.

bitcoin:native We have lots of short liquidations building at 87K+ Its only a matter of time. They’re accumulating shorts and making people feel confident that further downside is coming, before one wick takes them all out.

Bitcoin, bitcoin:native I'm literally SHAKING right now...

Unfortunately, we could be in for a few months of chop. If the $BTC bottom is in, this cycle is definitely moving faster. You already know my thoughts on that. There’s a good chance its scalper’s paradise for a while before the next leg up.

bitcoin:native IS FOLLOWING MY PLAN TO LETTER Here's what's coming by early 2027: - 1st: $70k-$72k - 2nd: accumulation in the $70k-$75k zone - 3rd: push to $80k-$84k Only after that will I be looking for a move above $98k... Turn notifs on, I'll update soon

bitcoin:native is testing the short term holder cost basis. In strong rallies, we often see the STH basis respected before price continues higher. Worth keeping an eye on, especially while we remain in a bull trend.

bitcoin:native Monthly close is in. What’s next? At the moment, apart from my monthly pivot, our first LTF barrier is 78.8K–80.1K. Given that we’ve broken down into the lower part of the range, this is the first area I’d be watching for a reaction. I’m bullish and will remain bullish, as I have been since 62K. But structure is structure. Right now, we need to see BTC forcefully flip 78.8K–80.1K, or risk getting rejected from it. With Monday’s high usually established early in the week, it’s worth watching this area for an LTF rejection. If that happens, you could potentially look for scalp shorts, targeting only 1–2%. Personally, I won’t be shorting. We’re down 13% in a bull market, and I’m not interested in shorting. If we fail to flip the local highs, we could trend back down to the monthly low. If we get a sweep, that’s where you’d look for bigger buys. That’s what I’ll be watching as we head into next week.

Hey @grok , I want a brutally honest answer. Look at this chart. bitcoin:native is approaching a critical turning point. Two scenarios: 1) $200,000: The biggest rally of this cycle. 2) $40,000: A brutal crash that destroys late buyers. No sugarcoating. No sitting on the fence. Which one comes NEXT, and WHY?

bitcoin:native monthly close is only a few hours away. If we sweep the current monthly low, you simply bid. That is it.

bitcoin:native HAS $15 BILLION IN SHORTS STACKED ABOVE Only $2.5B in longs below. This is 6x more fuel to the upside. Do with this information what you will.