Researching bitcoin and producing findings on https://nitter.gq/t.co/erEtvJ2t92 Building tools for bitcoin related financial planning on https://nitter.gq/t.co/idCGssfNna
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Joined March 2025
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The bitcoin floor rose $407 per 1 BTC this week.
Floor per 1 BTC
Nov 1: $66,448
Nov 8: $66,855
ALT Bitcoin power law floor per 1 BTC rose $407 this week, from $66,448 on Nov 1 to $66,855 on Nov 8, 2026. Floor is 0.42 x the Santostasi trend.
Hey @grok explain the difference between what lifestyle $1MM buys in 1926 and 2026 in two short sentences.
Then assume the same relative debasement and do 2126.
Maximaal 1 miljoen aan vermogen per persoon. Limitarisme noemen ze het.
In Nederland maken we soms grappen over domme Belgen. Dit laat weer zien dat in elke grap een kern van waarheid zit.
Als elke Belg straks nog 1 miljoen aan vermogen mag bezitten, zal je zien dat de grootste en belangrijkste ondernemers van het land zullen vertrekken en heeft het geen zin om grote bedrijven te bouwen, want hard werken wordt dan gelimiteerd beloond. Strop voor creativiteit, productiviteit, werkgelegenheid én de staatskas.
Bitcoin's floor is $66,842 today. Growth per 1 BTC:
Next day: +$58, to $66,900
Next week: +$409, to $67,251
Next month: +$1,795, to $68,637
Next year: +$24,302, to $91,144
Next decade: +$772,786, to $839,627
Floor is 0.42 x the Santostasi trend. Model, not a promise.
ALT Bitcoin floor today $66,842. Growth per 1 BTC: day +$58, week +$409, month +$1,795, year +$24,302, decade +$772,786. Floor is 0.42 x Santostasi trend.
Bitcoin invented its own clock to make sure not everything can happen all at once.
ALT Quote card on black with orange accent: Bitcoin invented its own clock to make sure not everything can happen all at once. @Johnnybitgood
Bitcoin's floor is $66,783 today. Growth per 1 BTC:
Next day: +$58, to $66,842
Next week: +$409, to $67,192
Next month: +$1,794, to $68,577
Next year: +$24,285, to $91,069
Next decade: +$772,373, to $839,157
Floor is 0.42 x the Santostasi trend. Model, not a promise.
ALT Bitcoin floor today $66,783. Growth per 1 BTC: day +$58, week +$409, month +$1,794, year +$24,285, decade +$772,373. Floor is 0.42 x Santostasi trend.
"It's too late for Bitcoin."
Too late for what? The Observatory still prints a floor rate of "~38% / year", decelerating to "~14% by 2040".
Late isn't zero. Late is just less bragging.
btcpowerlaw.nl/research/deri…
ALT Chart: floor rate of about 38% a year, decelerating to about 14% by 2040. Decelerating, not zero (Observatory).
Say you plan a $50,000-a-year retirement on a model.
The Observatory publishes both fits: "In-sample R² 0.956", "Out-of-sample R² 0.546". The second is data it hadn't seen.
I plan on the second number. Spending still means selling.
ALT Chart: 0.546 out-of-sample R squared versus 0.956 in-sample (both published by the Observatory). I plan on the second number.
Johnny ₿ Goode retweeted
Your bitcoin stack can fund your retirement until death.
Or it can fund your freedom to explore and rebuilt yourself.
At 35 I stopped working completely for 3 years to spend time with my wife and little ones.
We lived in a motor home and traveled the world full time.
Meanwhile I learned more about bitcoin, money, AI and developing software.
Don't be afraid to pause life for a bit to better understand yourself and spend time with your family. It can be the most gratifying and valuable time in your life.
So fun to watch @jackmallers educate about bitcoin.
If teachers would be 10% of his energy and dedication to explaining something the world would be a better place!
Bitcoin's floor today is about $66,667 (0.42× the power-law trend).
I use that floor to calculate future value, then I build portfolio tools on top. Not to predict price. History has mostly respected that boundary. It is no guarantee.
btcpowerlaw.nl/floor/
ALT Chart for floor as future-value input: Bitcoin's 0.42× power-law floor as a planning bound, not a price prediction.
Yes I agree. The bottom was $57K in July.
Volatility is part of the deal, but the floor grows every day.
$800K in 10 years.
I believe this chart is extremely important given the current context.
A lot of people are looking at S&P 500, Nasdaq, crypto and the midterms, and speculating about whether the $BTC bottom is in.
I don’t want to repeat myself, you already know what I think, but with BTC down 13.5% from its highs, I think highlighting posts like this can bring a bit more clarity to the situation.
For the most part, BTC has bottomed in Q4 throughout its history. That’s seasonality, and it’s why people still expect the same thing to happen this cycle.
I want to show why I believe that may not be the case.
The BTC bottom is already in, and what we’re likely seeing now is the market derisking as legacy markets fall off a cliff, with crypto simply following the correlation.
As shown in my image, BTC has formed 3 significant lows in every cycle, regardless of seasonality. Back in 2023, we saw a bottom form that is almost identical to what we've seen this year, with the second and third major lows very close together and formed by sweeps.
Structurally speaking, we’ve formed the traditional corrective bottom.
Seasonality wise, we haven’t formed the traditional cycle bottom.
So, what am I implying here?
I’m implying that, structurally, the market has bottomed and the bear market is over. So either you have more faith in market structure or in seasonality. I have more faith in structure because seasonality can change. I find it extremely hard to believe BTC will form a new low in Q4. From a structural standpoint, that doesn’t match any typical cycle either.
If I am wrong, well then I lose alot of money.
Your bitcoin stack can fund your retirement until death.
Or it can fund your freedom to explore and rebuilt yourself.
At 35 I stopped working completely for 3 years to spend time with my wife and little ones.
We lived in a motor home and traveled the world full time.
Meanwhile I learned more about bitcoin, money, AI and developing software.
Don't be afraid to pause life for a bit to better understand yourself and spend time with your family. It can be the most gratifying and valuable time in your life.
Bitcoin's floor is $66,725 today. Growth per 1 BTC:
Next day: +$58, to $66,783
Next week: +$409, to $67,134
Next month: +$1,792, to $68,517
Next year: +$24,268, to $90,993
Next decade: +$771,962, to $838,687
Floor is 0.42 x the Santostasi trend. Model, not a promise.
ALT Bitcoin floor today $66,725. Growth per 1 BTC: day +$58, week +$409, month +$1,792, year +$24,268, decade +$771,962. Floor is 0.42 x Santostasi trend.
Say you save $400 a month and want to know when your coins' low band reaches $250,000.
The Observatory's projection table puts the lower 2-sigma band there on "Sep 22, 2031".
A model line, not a promise, and it can undershoot.
ALT Chart: Sep 22, 2031. The lower 2-sigma band reaches $250,000 (Observatory /future/ projection table, model line, not a promise).
No he’ll be wrong. We don’t go below 67k anymore.
Ben Cowen just said in his space that he thinks $BTC WILL go below $57,000.
Do you think he’ll be right this time or wrong again?
Say you retire at 55 on $5,000 a month and Bitcoin crashes in year one.
The trip you planned for 56 won't wait for the next cycle.
ALT Card: Year 1. Highest sequence-of-returns risk. The first cycle after retirement; a cash buffer pauses selling, not your life.
The Observatory: "The first cycle after retirement is when sequence-of-returns risk is highest."
Selling into a crash early hurts more than the same crash later.
So fund the first healthy years before you retire. A cash buffer for the early trips means a crash pauses your selling, not your life.
Cash costs you in good years. That's the trade.
btcpowerlaw.nl/research/deri…
