Director at SABI Strategy Group. Passionate campaigner. Love Rugby. Views are my own.
London, England
Joined April 2011
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Jonathan Moakes retweeted
Last week, Ipsos released their second national poll and the fifth national poll in the last four months. The previous polls put the gap between the ANC and the DA at six to seven percentage points. This new poll has the gap shrinking to just two points.
Jonathan Moakes retweeted
Special votes look promising as an early indication of turnout (no dramatic improvement on past but comparable ratios, so suggests massive decline in turnout possibly arrested). This are very dedicated voters though, who have made a special plan, so one must be careful of generalising their behaviour to the whole voting population. That Gauteng figure will please the DA. KZN high too. And FS.
Jonathan Moakes retweeted
"Johannesburg is the fulcrum that could balance - or topple - the house of cards that is coalition politics in local government. Make no mistake, the coalition that will emerge in Joburg will not be independent of the ones in Tshwane, NMB, Mogale City or Rustenburg."
Just got mine. @TSouthAfricaB is ready to ROC and roll.
Jonathan Moakes retweeted
Facebook is still the top platform for a plurality of SA voters, so we checked the Meta Ad Library for paid ads from 25 to 31 October.
DA: at least R1.8m
ANC: R77k
ActionSA: R76k
BOSA: R56k
FF Plus: R36k
EFF: R20k
Spend and effort may offer clues about diff. turnout tomorrow.
Jonathan Moakes retweeted
@Jonathan_Moakes spoke to @Radio702 about what happens after the results are in.
ewn.co.za/2026/11/02/who-gov…
Jonathan Moakes retweeted
@paulyberk is just getting started this election! His latest in @dailymaverick on what five national polls are showing heading into #LGE2026
Five national polls show DA building momentum in the metros dailymaverick.co.za/article/…
Jonathan Moakes retweeted
@Jonathan_Moakes spoke to @Newzroom405 about the first day of special voting.
The IEC says close to 99% of voting stations opened on time on the first day of special voting for the 2026 local government elections. Sabi Strategy Group director Jonathan Moakes reviews how the process unfolded and what it signals ahead of the main voting day on Wednesday. #Newzroom405
Watch: tinyurl.com/4bcta3s8
Jonathan Moakes retweeted
@paulyberk in @dailymaverick today on different coalition scenarios for Johannesburg, based on public polling.
dailymaverick.co.za/article/…
Jonathan Moakes retweeted
As results come in this week, watch for “overhang” in Joburg. Half of the 270 seats are wards, half PR. If a party wins more wards than its vote share entitles it to, it gets no PR seats but keeps every ward. The ANC may benefit in a fragmented field. #LGE2026
Not helpful for turn out generally. Key question will be which parties have the ability to contact their special voters and get them to return tomorrow.
Ballot-delivery blunder leaves 217 Cape metro voting stations unable to open on time
brnw.ch/21x6PBU
Turnout will be the biggest variable on Wednesday for #LGE2026. And the main party campaigns do signal how effective they will be in driving differential turnout. ANC looks to have no ability, MKP unclear. DA & EFF look to be ready for a big day of turn out.
As voting kicks off today with special votes, we thought we would take a brief look at the campaigns of the main parties: the ANC, DA, MK and EFF. How did they fare, and specifically, what do their campaigns say about the efficacy of their GOTV operations on Wednesday? #LGE2026
Revealing that the ANC has closed a somewhat lacklustre campaign in Limpopo (yesterday) and the eastern Eastern Cape (today). Both areas likely to be its two remaining strongholds after Wednesday. Outside of Buffalo City, it has retreated from the Metros.
We are at Sisa Dukashe Stadium in Mdantsane, Eastern Cape, for the ANC Siyanqoba Rally. The gates are open. Join comrades and supporters from across the country as we unite behind the ANC’s vision to build better communities. We’re waiting for you!
#ANCSiyanqobaRally #VoteANC2026
Jonathan Moakes retweeted
@paulyberk looks at what 5 polls says about coalition scenarios in Tshwane. What happens to ActionSA's vote will be a determining factor.
I think this is increasingly looking probable. As you have said repeatedly, the biggest variable in this election is turnout - particularly in JHB. And the ANC’s final week looks likely to drive the differential up. And their poor organisation on the ground will not help.
Jonathan Moakes retweeted
The final #LGE2026 Week That Was. Voting starts in 2 days with special votes.
Jonathan Moakes retweeted
The Week Ahead: 26 - 30 October 2026. Final campaign week, Operation Vulindlela and Producer Price Index.
