Understand the digital assets industry, from short-term market signals to long-term fundamentals.
Oslo, Norway
Joined December 2019
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BTC is slipping below $80k as traders freeze. Spot volume, open interest and volatility are all near multi-year lows, and calm like this very rarely lasts, with a volatility expansion looking close as the FOMC, midterms and even Anthropic’s IPO near.
k33.com/research/articles/un…
BTC stays rangebound as spot and derivatives activity remain passive. Bitcoin has now spent 28 days trading within the range of its September 21 candle, pushing 28-day volatility toward its mid-August lows.
k33.com/research/articles/in…
MSCI’s new rules could drop MSTR and Metaplanet from its indexes, risking billions in outflows. A court ruling boosts the UK’s odds of keeping much of its seized 61,000 BTC, and BNY and Citadel ran the first tri-party repo with tokenized Treasuries.
k33.com/research/articles/st…
Crypto traders stay passive and defensive after a heavy week for BTC, with correlations to U.S. equities climbing to 4 month highs. With STRC back near par, we examine whether Strategy’s former, simpler ATM approach would have been more capital efficient
k33.com/research/articles/ch…
The U.S. government moves over 17,700 BTC, while AI breakthroughs raise concerns about Bitcoin's security.
We cover both stories in the latest Ahead of the Curve podcast, based on today's This Week in Crypto report.
🎧 podcast.k33.com/
Two heavy stories hit BTC, security fears following AI math breakthroughs and US onchain moves of more than 17.7k BTC to Coinbase. Most of these coins are likely not sold, and for now, nothing suggests that AI has weakened elliptic-curve cryptography.
k33.com/research/articles/u-…
Bitcoin is up nearly 50% from its lows, yet participation remains subdued.
Few buyers, even fewer sellers. Our latest Ahead of the Curve Podcast episode looks at why seller exhaustion may be the key BTC-specific force right now.
podcast.k33.com/
A year after the ATH, BTC looks to have bottomed early. Sellers are exhausted, long-term holders are in control and boring price action hides a buoyant drift. We see a buyers' market and stay fully allocated.
k33.com/research/articles/fe…
New Ahead of the Curve: The SEC moves ahead with a crypto custody proposal, while the CFTC tests the boundaries of prediction markets and Tether faces scrutiny over Iran-linked USDT activity.
Listen: podcast.k33.com/
This week we cover the CFTC's event contract rules and the SEC's crypto custody proposal. We also look at Iranian crypto use, as one investigation points to heavy Tether use in Iran's shadow banking.
k33.com/research/articles/te…
Bitcoin’s biggest weekly derivatives unwind since October 2025 has been unusually calm.
Today’s Ahead of the Curve Podcast explores lighter positioning, slowing ETF inflows and pressure from bond yields.
Listen: podcast.k33.com/
Bitcoin derivatives are experiencing something as rare as voluntary profit realization of a magnitude only comparable to the most massive liquidation cascades of the past. May BTC keep pulling higher with the most aggressive risk-takers having exited?
k33.com/research/articles/an…
Bitget reports a $352m hack as new interviews shed light on institutional crypto conviction. Today's Ahead of the Curve Podcast also covers Binance’s Circle investment and a Bitcoin privacy proposal.
Listen: podcast.k33.com/
This week we cover the $352m Bitget hack, Binance’s $100m investment in Circle, new developments in Bitcoin privacy and the CFTC’s push toward tokenized markets. In this week’s deep dive, we look at how institutional investors are approaching crypto.
k33.com/research/articles/bi…
K33 Research retweeted
Audio version of our latest K33 Research report is out.
A pretty significant change in the BTC setup this week:
• BTC +10% and highest since January
• First major higher high of the drawdown
• Back above ETF cost basis after 236 days
• 14k+ BTC of ETP inflows on Monday
• Derivatives activity rising, but still no obvious leverage excess
The big question now is whether the external capital keeps coming.
🎧 podcast.k33.com/
As unknowns became knowns, capital returned to BTC, lifting it toward the yearly open. Technical, structural, narrative, and seasonal signals remain encouraging, supporting our bullish bias, though rising yields point to growing risk appetite.
k33.com/research/articles/al…
CLARITY failed. The Fed hiked. Bitcoin barely flinched.
That was the setup we highlighted earlier this week: both adverse outcomes were already heavily expected, while leverage and positioning remained relatively clean.
Since then, the regulatory story has shifted fast:
• SEC opens a temporary route for certain tokenized U.S. stocks
• CFTC expands no-action relief
• Congress keeps moving on narrower crypto bills
• Deutsche Bank prepares institutional digital-asset custody
Latest Ahead of the Curve Podcast:
🎧 podcast.k33.com/
The procedural Clarity Act vote failed, with both the SEC and CFTC moving quickly to address parts of the regulatory gap through existing authority, though without the permanence or broader scope that legislation would provide.
k33.com/research/articles/cl…
Bitcoin is pricing in a fairly grim week.
BTC is back around $77k. Odds of CLARITY becoming law this year have fallen to ~19%. And markets overwhelmingly expect another Fed hike tomorrow.
But leverage is low and positioning is balanced.
That creates an interesting asymmetry: the adverse outcomes are increasingly expected. A positive surprise is not.
In the latest Ahead of the Curve, we look beyond this week’s headlines at why Bitcoin’s broader market structure increasingly resembles a post-bottom environment.
🎧 podcast.k33.com/