Kaleb retweeted
the incentive of a normal casino, sportsbook, and PM is to drive you to 0 as fast as possible because the percentage of revenue they can take from you is fixed at deposit. the only way they can earn more from you is to have you deposit more.
@Lattica, in contrast, is fully aligned with users:
1) winning traders are safer for our pool
2) because we settle on other venues, we're not the counterparty. winners take from traders on polymarket, outcome, etc, in essence getting a fresh deposit
3) the more liquid prediction markets are, the more leverage we can offer our users. our goal is to grow the pie
WAGMI, 2026
Play long term games , users win = app wins
also @Lattica offering leveraged sports trades , much more +EV where they want users to win
Super excited to be leading this round! Huge congrats to @will_beeson and the @multiliquid_xyz team!!
Financial markets are moving toward a world where assets can move 24/7 with deep liquidity. For many assets, however, that's still far from reality. Simply putting an asset onchain doesn't magically make it liquid or unlock new use cases.
If the underlying assets still take days, weeks, or even months to settle, with little to no secondary market liquidity, it's incredibly difficult to enable DeFi use cases like borrowing and looping that require 24/7 atomic liquidity.
Multiliquid is building the connective layer to solve this, bringing together asset issuers, venues, and liquidity providers to enable instant, 24/7 liquidity for tokenized assets through a single integration.
What stood out to me about Will is that he's experienced this problem firsthand. Having built tokenization infrastructure at Standard Chartered and worked on Wellington's tokenized Treasury product, he understands both where traditional market infrastructure falls short and what it will take to bring these markets onchain.
We're super excited to back Will and the team as they build this next piece of financial infrastructure. Congrats again!
Multiliquid closes seed round led by @polychaincap, with participation from @strobefund, @CMT_Digital, @metalayervc, @genventurecap and @circle_ventures, bringing total funding to $8M.
Instant liquidity for tokenized assets, atomic settlement, 24/7.
Read more: multiliquid.xyz/news/seed-ro…
Kaleb retweeted
Multiliquid closes seed round led by @polychaincap, with participation from @strobefund, @CMT_Digital, @metalayervc, @genventurecap and @circle_ventures, bringing total funding to $8M.
Instant liquidity for tokenized assets, atomic settlement, 24/7.
Read more: multiliquid.xyz/news/seed-ro…
Kaleb retweeted
Going to TOKEN2049 Singapore?
We’re hosting a curated Oktoberfest event on Oct 8 for the prediction market crowd.
Good beer, good food, and a chance to meet people across the space.
Spots are limited. Apply here ↓
luma.com/gptr5rfu
Kaleb retweeted
We’re bringing Oktoberfest to #TOKEN2049 🍻
Together with @PredictFolio, we’re getting the prediction market crowd off the conference floor for an afternoon of German brews, good food, and even better conversations.
Limited spots. Singapore, Oct 8.
Join us ↓
Kaleb retweeted
Multiliquid Swap offers deep instant liquidity across 10 leading tokenized assets.
Swap between tokenized funds and stablecoins in one atomic transaction, 24/7.
No bank wires or multi-day redemption queues. Just instant liquidity.
→ swap.multiliquid.xyz/
Kaleb retweeted
10 years ago, polychain was an impossible dream. today i'm thinking of everyone that has made it real: our bold investors, the inspiring founders we have invested in, and the brilliant team i've worked with along the way.
the future is still more sci-fi than you think :)
10 years ago @polychain was founded in an apartment in SF to build a unique fund, from first principles, for investing in crypto-assets because ‘the future is more Sci-Fi than you think’. It has been an incredible journey with so much to be proud of from the firm’s extraordinary returns & portfolio of projects. But what we’re most proud of is that Polychain spawned so many outlier entrepreneurs from the core team. Nearly a dozen centimillion-dollar firms/funds alongside several unicorns & a decacorn.
Kaleb retweeted
Public Trader Identity: Adverse Selection and Return Predictability
arxiv.org/html/2608.04373v1
Kaleb retweeted
I solved 6 open Erdős problems in 5 days, using @OpenAI GPT-5.6 Sol.
I have a math background, but the Codex workflow I used does not require deep mathematical knowledge.
Here’s exactly how I approached it, including my prompts 🧵
Kaleb retweeted
🚨New Paper with @Weiye_Xi , @ciamac and @Qiaoqiao2001
Here’s two different prediction markets priced at ~6.5%:
1. Will the US confirm the existence of Aliens in 2026?
2. *that* Spurs @ Knicks Game 4, ~4th quarter.
They suggest that both these events are the same probability, but intuitively these feel very different: the latter (Knicks won!) feels a lot more uncertain. But prediction markets don’t immediately give us a way to quantify it.
Kaleb retweeted
Previous week was my last at @fluentxyz. I’m excited to share that I’ll be joining @polychain as a research partner.
I’ve always joked that my inability to focus on one thing for prolonged periods makes a fund a perfect place for me and over the past year, I realized I’m ready to take that step. I enjoy digging into different projects and working closely with others to help refine them. I am thrilled to finally get to do that full-time.
We've built a lot of cool shit at Fluent and I’m excited to see what’s next for the team and the company.
Kaleb retweeted
Can’t even begin to explain how awesome it’s been working with the @polychain and @archetypevc teams, and how honored I am to have their support.
Every day we’re assembling the bricks of the forever connectivity protocol. Whether it’s raw tech or infrastructure capital formation, DAWN is building the rails for how the world gets connected. Wireless is the final frontier of communications, and we’re building what it takes to hyperscale it so anyone can participate, not just the incumbents.
We’re all deploying connectivity infrastructure whether we realize it or not. It’s not just 5G towers or LEO satellites. If you set up a WiFi router at home, you’re deploying infra too. You just don’t equate the two (yet).
So to all the builders of connectivity, you're going to ask:
- how do I monetize my bandwidth?
- how do I move data as fast and cheap as possible?
- how do I maximize the value of my infrastructure?
- how do I raise to build more infra?
- how do I have awesome connectivity throughout my home?
The answer to these questions is DAWN. If you're building anything connectivity related, DAWN is the "how."
That's the future we are building. Connectivity powered by you. Answer the how, and you stop renting the Internet. You own it.
DAWN has raised $13M in Series B funding, led by @polychain
This capital accelerates our global expansion, new deployments, and ecosystem partnerships as we continue our mission of scaling decentralized broadband worldwide 🌍
Kaleb retweeted
Liquidity on prediction markets is horrible.
The reason: There is little algorithmic market making.
It's responsible for 99% of liquidity in the crypto and stock markets, but barely exists for prediction markets.
Here are 3 reasons why MMing on Polymarket is a fool's errand:
1. One side of the market certainly goes to zero
Prediction markets are binary options that always make the shares of one side of the market ending up worthless.
Either YES or NO certainly goes to zero, and here's why that's a problem:
A key risk for market makers is inventory risk.
If you market make for an asset, it's impossible to not at some point end up with a slight exposure to one side (YES or NO).
Market makers always make money if the price of an asset goes sideways.
They lose money, when it moves in one direction.
To be profitable in the long run, the profit during sideways movements needs to offset the loss during periods of high volatility.
The fact that one side is CERTAIN to go to zero makes this much harder.
It is even IMPOSSIBLE to market make on prediction markets WITHOUT taking at the same time a directional bet on the outcome of the market.
2. Volatility is instant, causing losses for MMs
In prediction markets, an adverse event can hit at any time that moves the price instantly to 0:
1. Market "Who will Trump meet this month?"
2. Trump announces meeting with Putin.
3. Price of YES goes instantly to $1, NO goes to 0.
This is not possible in other markets.
Bitcoin might dump, but it will not go to zero over night.
Having limit orders in the books is therefore much more risky in prediction markets than in TradFi or crypto, because when news hit you might get filled against fast news traders.
Everyone who uses prediction markets experienced this already, and it's another factor that makes market making less attractive.
3. Much more insider activity
Insider trading makes the problem from above even more extreme:
If you have information that is not public, you can "eat the book" (= buy the liquidity that the market maker provides) even BEFORE your insider knowledge becomes public.
Like this, the market maker doesn't even have the chance to react.
In crypto market making, trading firms pull the liquidity from the books during times of high volatility.
This protects them against the risk of being filled one-sided during periods of high volatility and ending up holding the bag (what I mentioned in points 1 and 2).
But when insiders are active, this is impossible.
This means that EVERY market maker needs to incur a default level of losses that is unavoidable, coming from "smarter money" arbitraging their quotes.
In market maker lingo people call this "toxic flow".
And due to heavy insider activity, prediction markets are full of it.
The effect is that market making on markets with a lot of "toxic flow" becomes overall less profitable.
Therefore less people do it.
Therefore liquidity gets worse.
And that's how we end up with the situation of today, where market making is mostly being done:
- by manual traders
- who are fine with having directional exposure
Now you know. 🙌
