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New York
Joined December 2018
NEW DEMOCRATIC ALL-TIME HIGH (KPOW): +4.9D Odds 🟦 Senate: 65% Democrats <- all-time high 🟦 House: 91% Democrats 🟦 Presidency: 59% Democrats
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While the markets favor Democrats to win both Senate (65%) and House (90%), people who correctly predicted Trump to win in 2024 are very bullish on Republicans this cycle. Is this the Trump effect, or is it structural?
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NEW ALL-TIME HIGH: 76% chance Amy Acton wins the Ohio Governor race
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you can also use this to block Kalshi ads cc @allanmaman
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Thanks for inventing this, @Kalshi
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An LA hospitality group runs 25 bars, many of them right by Dodger Stadium. Every extra playoff game means packed bars. An early exit means lost revenue they were counting on. So they hedged it. They put $60,000 on Kalshi on the Dodgers *not* making the World Series. The Dodgers lost the NLCS to the Brewers. The position returned nearly 2x, helping cover the playoff business that *never* came. A Columbia law professor told Fortune it works like “a form of bespoke insurance.” Read the full story here: fortune.com/2026/10/19/predi…
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NEW ALL-TIME HIGH: Democrat Amy Acton has a 73% chance to win the Ohio Governor race
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Kalshi retweeted
Introducing “My Ballot” to the Kalshi Midterms Hub, with nonpartisan election data from Ballotpedia. All of the information you need to vote, stay informed, and track the real-time market movements in one place.
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JUST IN: KPOW has shifted to +4.20 D as Democrats are now favored to control the Senate (63%), House (90%), and 2028 Presidency (59%)
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TEXAS SENATE ODDS: 🟦 James Talarico: 61% 🟥 Ken Paxton: 39%
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NEW MARKET: Will any US state change its name?
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2026 MIDTERMS UPDATE: 🟦 62% chance Democrats control Senate 🟦 90% chance Democrats control House 🟦 59% chance Democrats win the 2028 Presidency 🟦 KPOW: Leaning Democratic +3.8
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BREAKING: It's 750 days until the 2028 Presidential election
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BREAKING: President Trump offers his “complete and total endorsement” of “Great Warrior” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu 32% chance Netanyahu wins re-election in Israel
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POLITICO: Senator Jon Ossoff says “I have zero interest in running for President” The former Democratic Presidential frontrunner drops to 3rd in the odds behind Gavin Newsom and AOC
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BREAKING: Gavin Newsom and AOC are now TIED for the lead in the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee odds as Jon Ossoff drops 4% in the odds this week
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JUST IN: Laura Loomer posts “I’m ready” with photoshopped picture of her with a blonde wig 2% chance she’s Trump’s next Press Secretary
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NEW: Kalshi traders forecast under a 45% chance that more than 2,425 MLB games will be played in 2027. In a standard MLB season, there are 2,430 games. $100 pays out $239.90 on Kalshi if each team plays a full 162-game season.
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Ascend Properties manages a portfolio of luxury rentals in Big Sky, Montana, one of the country’s top ski destinations. Weak December snowfall doesn’t just hurt the holidays. It drags down bookings for the rest of the season. So rather than hope for powder, Adam Farr, who runs Ascend, hedged the risk on Kalshi. He took a $2,000 position on Big Sky getting below-average snowfall in December. If the snow comes, bookings run as normal and Ascend serves the ski crowd like any other season. If it doesn’t, the Kalshi position pays out, helping offset lost bookings while Ascend waits for winter to show up. Either way, Adam’s business is protected.
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James Talarico has a 63% chance to beat Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, according to Kalshi traders. But what percentage of Texas Senate traders are buying Yes on Talarico? • All Americans: 46% • Texans: 42% • Non-Texas: 48%
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