KickOff

Over one point five goals, eighty percent, and United's home record is where it starts: over 1.5 goals in 85% of their last 20 home league games at Old Trafford. That's a ground where games rarely stay quiet. The back door is the big part of it. United have conceded in 10 consecutive home league games, and they've kept only 4 clean sheets in their last 20 at home. At the other end, United have scored in 17 of their last 20 home league games, 85%, and average 2 goals a game there. Villa bring their share. They've scored in 6 consecutive league games, and in 14 of their last 20 away league games. Their away games have had over 1.5 goals in 80% of their last 20 too. The model expects United to score 1.6 goals and Villa 1.4, so it sees goals at both ends, not a cagey one. It's a strong number, not a promise. One goal or none is how it goes wrong, and with United leaking at home and Villa scoring, I don't see the scoreboard that quiet. Over one point five goals, eighty percent. #MUFC #AVFC #PremierLeague

Under three point five goals, seventy-seven percent. Sunderland's home record points the same way. There have been under 3.5 goals in 80% of their last 20 home league games, and in 6 consecutive home league games at the Stadium of Light. That's a ground where the scoreboard rarely gets busy. Sunderland's home scoring is thin: they average 1 goal a game in their last 20 home league games and have failed to score in 8 of them. So if this goes to four or more, it'll need goals from an end that often hasn't supplied any. They don't give much away at home either. They average 1.1 conceded a game there and have kept 8 clean sheets in their last 20 home league games, which is a back door that shuts more often than you'd think. Chelsea's away games stayed under the line too, in 70% of their last 20 away league games. The model expects Sunderland to score 1.1 goals and Chelsea 1.4. That's a game with a few goals in it, not a shootout. It's a decent number, but it's still not a promise. Under three point five goals, seventy-seven percent. #SAFC #CFC #PremierLeague

Over one point five goals, eighty-two percent, and Bournemouth's scoring on the road is the heart of it: they've scored in 8 consecutive away league games. That's a side that doesn't turn up empty-handed. Ipswich do their share at Portman Road. They've scored in 18 of their last 20 home league games, 90%, and there have been over 1.5 goals in 9 consecutive Ipswich home league games. Ipswich are up this season, so those home figures are mostly last season's division, but they still point the same way. Bournemouth's away games run hot too: over 1.5 goals in 85% of their last 20 away league games, and they've conceded in 15 of those 20. The meetings agree as well, with over 1.5 goals in the last 6 league meetings between these two. The model expects Ipswich to score 1.6 goals and Bournemouth 1.6. That's goals at both ends, not a game short of them. For this to lose you need one goal or none, and with both attacks this reliable I don't see the scoreboard staying that quiet. Over one point five goals, eighty-two percent. #ITFC #AFCB #PremierLeague

Over one point five goals, eighty-four percent, and Liverpool's away scoring is the engine: they've scored in 18 of their last 20 away league games, 90%. They've scored in 12 consecutive away league games too, so this is a side that travels with a goal in it. Palace's end of the pitch tells the same story from the other side of the ball. They've conceded in 14 of their last 20 home league games, and in 6 consecutive home league games. That's a door that keeps swinging open at Selhurst. The games themselves back it up. There have been over 1.5 goals in 6 consecutive Palace home league games, and in 80% of Liverpool's last 20 away league games. The model expects Palace to score 1.1 goals and Liverpool 2.1, which is a game with goals at both ends, not one short of them. It's a big number, but it's not a promise. For this to lose you need one goal or none, and with Palace leaking at home like that and Liverpool scoring every trip lately, I'd be surprised. Over one point five goals, eighty-four percent. #CPFC #LFC #PremierLeague

Over one point five goals, eighty-three percent, and Brighton's home record is where it starts. There have been over 1.5 goals in 85% of their last 20 home league games, and in 8 consecutive home league games at the Amex. That's a ground where two goals is the normal afternoon. Brighton have scored in 16 of their last 20 home league games, 80%, so they rarely draw a blank there. Brentford's travels point the same way. There have been over 1.5 goals in 7 consecutive Brentford away league games. They've conceded in 7 consecutive away league games, so the door doesn't shut on the road, and they've scored in 5 consecutive away league games as well, so they bring something with them. Over their last 20 away league games they've kept only 5 clean sheets. The model expects Brighton to score 2.2 goals and Brentford 1, which is a forecast with goals at both ends. It's a high number, not a promise: it loses on one goal or none, and with both sides finding the net this often, I don't see it. Over one point five goals, eighty-three percent. #BHAFC #BrentfordFC #PremierLeague

Under three point five goals, eighty-one percent, and Forest's home record makes the case: under three point five goals in 85% of their last 20 home league games. That's a ground where games rarely get away from anyone. The recent run says the same, with under that line in 6 consecutive Forest home league games. Forest's own scoring at home is thin: they've failed to score in 11 of their last 20 home league games, averaging 0.9 scored a game there, and they haven't scored more than one goal in 6 consecutive home league games. City's away games aren't wild either: under three point five goals in 80% of their last 20 away league games, averaging 1.8 scored and 1.1 conceded a game on the road. The model expects Forest to score point six goals and City one point six, so most of the goals are expected at one end, and the forecast isn't a shootout. For this to lose you need four goals or more, and Forest haven't scored more than one at home against City in 7 consecutive league meetings. Under three point five goals, eighty-one percent. #NFFC #MCFC #PremierLeague

Over one point five goals, eighty-four percent, and Fulham's home scoring is where it starts: they've scored in 17 of their last 20 home league games, 85%. That's a side that rarely draws a blank at the Cottage, and they've scored in 5 consecutive home league games. Newcastle's away games are the other half of it. There have been over 1.5 goals in 6 consecutive Newcastle away league games, and that line has landed in 75% of their last 20 away league games. Their back door is the reason: they've conceded in 16 of their last 20 away league games, so Fulham shouldn't be short of a way through. They bring something going forward as well. Newcastle have scored in 15 of their last 20 away league games, so this isn't only about Fulham. The model expects Fulham to score 1.8 goals and Newcastle 1.5. That's a forecast with goals at both ends, not a game that's short of them. It's a big number, but it isn't a promise. One goal or none would sink it, and with both sides scoring that often, I don't see it. Over one point five goals, eighty-four percent. #FFC #NUFC #PremierLeague

Over one point five goals, seventy-six percent, and Arsenal's home record does the heavy lifting: over 1.5 goals in 80% of their last 20 home league games. They've scored in 12 consecutive home league games and won 7 straight there, so this isn't a side that does goalless afternoons at the Emirates. They average 2.1 scored a game at home over those last 20, and the model expects them to score two point one goals here, with Hull on point seven. That's the home side carrying the line, with the visitors adding a bit. Hull are up this season, so their away figures are mostly last season's division, but they've scored in 17 of their last 20 away league games, and they don't keep it tight on the road either, with clean sheets in only 30% of those. There have been over 1.5 goals in the last 10 league meetings between these two. For this to lose you need one goal or none, and with Arsenal scoring that reliably at home, I don't see it. Over one point five goals, seventy-six percent. #AFC #HCFC #PremierLeague

Spurs away from home is where this starts: under three point five goals in 11 consecutive away league games, and the model's call at Elland Road is under three point five goals, 82%. That streak isn't a fluke either. Spurs' away league games have stayed under that line in 80% of their last 20, so tight afternoons on the road are their habit. Their scoring away is modest: they average 1.1 goals a game in their last 20 away league games. Leeds keep things calm too. Across their last 20 league games they've stayed under three point five goals in 85%, and they concede 0.9 a game in those games. They've kept clean sheets in 35% of their last 20 league games, so there's no open house at their end. The model expects Leeds to score 1.3 goals and Spurs 0.9, and that reads like a contest, not a shootout. For this to lose you need four goals or more, and with Spurs travelling this light in front of goal, I can't see the scoreboard getting that busy. Under three point five goals, 82%. #LUFC #THFC #PremierLeague

Under three point five goals, seventy-six percent, and Coventry's away games make the case: under that line in 80% of their last 20 away league games. Coventry are up this season, so those away figures are mostly last season's division, but they still point the same way. Everton at home sit in a similar place: under three point five goals in 75% of their last 20 home league games. The model expects Everton to score 1.6 goals and Coventry 0.9, which reads like a game with goals in it but not a pile of them. Everton average 1.4 scored and 1.5 conceded per game over their last 20 at home, so there's steady scoring there, not a flood. Coventry average 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded per game across their last 20 away league games, which is a side that gets involved without blowing games open. It's a decent number, not a promise. For this to lose you need four goals or more, and neither attack has the look of one that runs up that kind of score. Under three point five goals, seventy-six percent. #EFC #PUSB #PremierLeague