Financial journalist and dispassionate forecaster...my predictions are not prescriptions; publishing CEO; ethics columnist; nonpartisan; RT is not endorsement.
Washington, D.C.
Joined July 2012
- Tweets61
- Following30
- Followers568
- Likes0
RIP Muriel Siebert, financial visionary: She invented discount brokerage (before Chas. Schwab), by slashing commissions on stock trades.
Offsetting factors in consumer spending outlook: Fed'l spending cuts (negative), but "wealth effect" of rising home equity (very positive).
Falling prices of gold, oil, gas raise fear of DEflation. But long trend will be rising global demand for food, fuel, metals...inflationary.
WH budget: Useful that entitlements are in play, but GOP insists tax reform be revenue neutral: trimmed deductions, lower rates. So no deal.
RIP Thatcher: Came to the global stage well before Reagan, with a clearer message, and accomplished much more in her nation than he in his.
Sequester GDP hit: Negligible. It's a timed-release capsule of cuts...slow acting. Washington will head off damage before furloughs start.
All managers facing budget cuts--in biz, gov't, nonprofits--predict dire effects. Yet they manage to do OK with less. Washington will too.
Sequester: Will start 3/1, but no significant effects 'til 4/1...furloughs, park closures, airport delays, etc. So ANOTHER month to dicker.
Sequestration an "artificial deadline"? Yes, like most deadlines. But they--and predictions of crisis--get our attention like nothing else.
Glass half full: Mortgage arrears rate down to lowest in four years..."only" 5%. Still more than three times pre-crash rate of 1.5% or so.
Short-term debt ceiling hike: Better than nothing, but still puts off the big battle over deep spending cuts. "No budget, no pay"? Nice!
Jamie Dimon's 50% pay cut at JP Morgan Chase: Half of an outrageous amount--$23 million in '11--is still outrageous. No kudos for its board.
RIP, Nobel economist James Buchanan. Showed that politicians get reelected by pleasing voters with goodies not paid for, creating deficits.
New mortgage rules: Good riddance to no-doc "liar's loans," interest-only balloons with no money down. A return to traditional lending.
The New Year's Deal? Just a Band-Aid on Washington's gaping wound of red ink. The REAL work lies ahead...spending cuts, entitlement reform.
"Only" a 1% rise in holiday retail sales? Sounds good to me: Consumers being responsible, saving more, paying down debt.We should applaud.
The Cliff: There WILL be a general agreement before 12/31. The Alpha Dogs are just snarling and marking the trees...normal posturing.
Both parties still in fiscal denial: Democrats, on the urgency of reining in Medicare costs, the GOP, on the need for much more revenue.
Churchill: "The Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have tried everything else." Washington, take note!