Prediction Markets Researcher & Analyst @Polymarket Bull DMs open
Alpha Caller
Joined January 2022
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ISRAEL VOTES TODAY
if no government forms, Netanyahu stays on as caretaker
Polymarket won't count that as him keeping the job
[ poly.market/PM_of_Israel ]
＞ a YES on a candidate in the PM market pays only after a formal swearing-in. coalition talks often take weeks
＞ the most-seats market resolves on the vote count. official results are due by Nov 4
＞ Yashar is 73¢ to win the most seats. Eisenkot is 62¢ to be PM. Netanyahu 27¢
＞ the final Kan, Channel 12 and Channel 13 polls had Eisenkot's bloc at 52 to 56 seats, Netanyahu's at 50. you need 61 for a majority, and the Arab parties sit outside both blocs
voting ends at 20:00 UTC
if nobody gets to 61, who takes the oath first, and how long does it take?
Mbappé's Ballon d'Or chance went 18% → 9.5% → 30.3% since yesterday
the votes were locked in the whole time
Ballon d'Or tonight on @ProblyHQ :
＞ Kane 63.9%
＞ Mbappé 30.3%
＞ Yamal 6.3%
Mbappé hit 9.5% in the first half of El Clásico. then he scored twice and Real won 2-1 at Camp Nou
Yamal missed from close range. his price fell from 14.4% at kickoff to 6.3%
overnight, Madrid reporters said Real will attend for the first time since 2024. that year they stayed home when word got out Vinícius lost. by morning Mbappé was at 23%
Kane and Yamal are coming too, so attendance tells you little. voting closed Sep 28
Kane at 63.9%: safe pick or does Mbappé steal it tonight?
On October 11, Mbappé was 1.8% to win the Ballon d'Or
He is 22% this morning
Not one vote changed in between
The award covers August 2025 to July 2026, so Sunday's Clásico isn't even in the window
The result has been locked for four weeks
Polymarket has kept trading it
Polymarket, after voting closed vs now
＞ Mbappé: 1.8% low on Oct 11 → 22%
＞ Yamal: 60% peak on Oct 1 → 10%
＞ Kane: 32.6% low on Oct 1 → 68%
Each move is either noise or information about an answer that already exists
2024 is the precedent
Vinícius was 87.5% on ceremony morning, and a list on X billed as the leaked result had him winning
By mid-afternoon he was 5.7%
Real Madrid boycotted the ceremony in Paris, and Rodri won
In 2025, Dembélé was the morning favorite at 76%, and he won
Two ceremonies is too few to call a base rate
This year none of the top three is staying home
Fabrizio Romano reports Mbappé, Kane and Yamal will all attend
At 68% Kane is still the clear favorite
At 22% Mbappé is about a one-in-five shot
The ceremony starts tonight at 20:00 UTC in London
Is Mbappé's run from 1.8% to 22% information or noise?
the $1WIN sale needs $13.7M more by Friday to clear $20M. since Oct 22 it's added $170K
the counter says NO. my own market on @xomarket says 69% YES
someone is wrong
＞ $13.7M by Friday is $3.2M a day. it's doing $45K a day
＞ at this pace it closes near $6.5M, about a third of the way
＞ the first 22 hours brought in $5.54M. the 10 days since brought in $750K
the YES case is in the sale terms
a deposit can't be withdrawn, and tokens are split pro-rata. getting in early earns you nothing extra. so a big wallet can wait for the last day
wait too long though, and you miss the close
where does the counter close on Oct 30?
🚨 Now live on XO, created by @KnightPredict!
Token sales are so back with @1win from the iGaming world using it for gaming activity and buyback-burn.
With $6.3M deposited already, can the 1win token sale cross $20M?
imo Kane
xitter.cf/KnightPredict/status/2…
MBAPPÉ WENT FROM 2.9¢ TO 25.9¢ IN SIX DAYS ON A BALLON D'OR VOTE THAT CLOSED A MONTH AGO
WHAT MOVED IT?
tonight he plays Yamal in El Clásico. tomorrow the winner gets named in London
Polymarket now: Kane 70.7¢, Mbappé 17.8¢, Yamal 11.1¢. $64.7M traded
[ poly.market/Ballon_Winner_20… ]
＞ no games count, so the only new thing is talk. since Friday, posts claiming Mbappé won have been all over X, one with 1.4M views. on Oct 3, a "leaked results" post had Yamal winning. none confirmed
＞ leaks aren't always noise. in 2024, reports hours before the ceremony said Rodri, not Vinícius. Real Madrid skipped the show. Rodri won
if Mbappé scores tonight and his price jumps, that's not new information. the ballots were in a month ago
Kane at 70.7¢: easy money or a surprise ending tomorrow?
MBAPPÉ WENT FROM 2.9¢ TO 25.9¢ IN SIX DAYS ON A BALLON D'OR VOTE THAT CLOSED A MONTH AGO
WHAT MOVED IT?
tonight he plays Yamal in El Clásico. tomorrow the winner gets named in London
Polymarket now: Kane 70.7¢, Mbappé 17.8¢, Yamal 11.1¢. $64.7M traded
[ poly.market/Ballon_Winner_20… ]
＞ no games count, so the only new thing is talk. since Friday, posts claiming Mbappé won have been all over X, one with 1.4M views. on Oct 3, a "leaked results" post had Yamal winning. none confirmed
＞ leaks aren't always noise. in 2024, reports hours before the ceremony said Rodri, not Vinícius. Real Madrid skipped the show. Rodri won
if Mbappé scores tonight and his price jumps, that's not new information. the ballots were in a month ago
Kane at 70.7¢: easy money or a surprise ending tomorrow?
SAN FRANCISCO JUST DECLARED AN EL NIÑO EMERGENCY
Polymarket: 69% it's the strongest El Niño on record. NOAA's forecast points higher
would you buy "record" at 69¢?
＞ the record is RONI +2.40, set in 1982-83. 1997-98 peaked at 2.28, 2015-16 at 2.25
＞ this one is ahead of 1982's pace: 1.69 in Jul-Sep, 1982 was at 1.14
＞ NOAA's October 8 outlook: 83% chance Oct-Dec alone hits +2.5 or more
＞ the case for NO: 1997 was even hotter in Jul-Sep at 1.84 and stalled at 2.28
＞ resolves YES once NOAA prints any season above 2.40
＞ $100 on YES at the 70¢ ask pays $143. only about $230 sits on the asks before the next one at 90¢. keep it under $200 or your fill jumps
[ polymarket.com/event/will-th… ]
NOAA's outlook implies 83%+, the market says 69%. who's right?
THE PENTAGON SEES A LEAK. POLYMARKET SEES A TRAIL
Hegseth's Oct 20 memo: "Our enemies watch movements in these markets"
＞ the ban: no trading on nonpublic government info, classified or not. it covers troops and DoD civilians. Polymarket and Kalshi are named
＞ in April an Army master sergeant was charged over $33k in Maduro and Venezuela positions that allegedly made $400k+. he pleaded not guilty
＞ prosecutors say he asked Polymarket to delete his account after online sleuths and the media flagged the payouts
＞ Oct 22 at NEXTPredict, Polymarket's Olivia Chalos: "I can't think of a single case where we didn't identify the individual almost within minutes"
she added: "the entire world and Twitter is surveilling it simultaneously"
catching the wallet later doesn't undo the price move. the signal is already out, so both of them are right
a fresh wallet sizes into a military market. insider or noise?
