Sometimes i share my opinion on a stock which i may or may not have a postion in
Joined December 2019
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$SOUN using febuarys past news but today they incorporated the word NVIDIA because of the GTC event, i can't say im suprised to see a PR PUMP
I doubt it will sustain such move and expect to see it sell off tomorrow. Even if NVIDA does not.
I am short both stocks
After covering PM on the 13th then trying a reshort around 4, come 11AM i said there is no edge in this for me now because i didn't expect it to hold this well considering the ATM therfore exiting all the position.
So to answer the question, i don't know how i would approach it now.
The R/R would not be in my favour because my stop would have to be extra high due to the lack of certainity in knowing the direction it will go today. IE stop 9 tgt 5 short 7 with 50/50 chance of working. and even if it worked i wouldn't make an amount that would be satisfying becasue i wouldn't risk much on a 50/50 setup resulting in a waste of time and energy
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The $TPST story.
1.Need at least 50M with a partnership for a phase 3 study, if no partnership well then they need $100M.
2. Aren't able to rasie no where near this amount due to Ib6 restrictions so need to close the price high enough to get IB1
3.Acheive IB1 by squeezing the life out of everyone then announce some form of offering the next day to raise money for upcoming studies
It's not rocket science. Look past the smoke and mirrors of news and ask the real question "whats the real reason they are they moving this today?"
Helps you not just avoid the short but also you may be more long biased.
Great repost @GoshawkTrades. I remember speaking with @Trader_Dante about 6,7 years ago. I still remember his words “If you know what you shouldn’t be doing and yet you’re still doing it then look for another job” scared me to death, soon changed my behaviour after.
Be great if he could meet us in London
Im currently in Rome and heading to Naples at the moment but definitely down for a London meet 👍🏻
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More on the power of elimination. I went back and reviewed the stocks I traded this year which I had no business in trading, meaning I didn't have much of an edge if any in them. By doing this I cost myself over 7 figures in 106 trades, if this behavior was eliminated I could add on at least 30% more profit for my year, 30% !
But how do you know when a setup falls in this category of a “maybe it will or maybe it won't/Just ok” type of setup? Well my first response was going to be “well if you don’t know then you better stop fucking trading until you do know” But i would say that only applies to people that are NOT brand new to trading (although you could back test first).
Point being if you can’t identify whether a setup is highly profitable for you on the day then not only would it fall into this category but you need to stop trading until you do know what is a HP setup for you.
A simple indicator for me is:
Great setups = I know instantly, it takes me no longer than 30 seconds to identify a great setup
Maybe it will or won't setups = I spend a lot longer (5-10 minutes) trying to figure out whether or not it is a great setup
So one rule to filter the greats from the maybes is if i have to spend longer than 2 minutes working out whether it’s good or not well then i’ve already answered the question.
Another one would be knowing how many times on avg your setups come along in a month then comparing that to how many times you traded. You can even look back each day or week and ask did I trade any “Just ok” setups. Your trading isn’t a playground to satisfy your boredom, it’s a place where you go to make money, not lose it.
This exercise reminded me of a saying me and a good friend came across in a derek @sivers book, and that was “Fuck yeah or no”. Meaning anything less than a great setup will not get my interest, even if it's "kind of okay" is still not good enough. I also like the saying from mercedes “The best or nothing”, although i don’t think they live up to that quote (story for another day)
So have a look at your history of trades, what fitted into the maybe setups and see how much it has cost you over the last couple of years. This tweet is part of the answer people get when they ask me about transitioning into a full time trader, which i will do in another tweet at somepoint.
May the force be wtih you
The magic of compounding.
Investing just $250 a month for 45 years based on a 8% yearly return = $1,200,000, leave it in for another 15 you get near $4,000,000
The avg market return over the last 50 years is 10%, this would equal = $2,200,000 and $9,500,000 for 60 years. Very inspiring to share this information with family and freinds who have your average wage.
Keep it simple, invest in an index and just leave it, even better, set it up automatically so you never see it go out.
One thing to bear in mind is fees, i would never invest a managed fund. Instead consider an index or tracker. i beilve getting it under 0.5% can be easily done these days
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