GEAB by Anticipolis

In the intricate chess game of global #geoeconomics, the dynamics are rapidly evolving, culminating in a potential global food crisis - the Food Crisis 2.0. This unfolding situation is centered around the recent deliberate dismantling of the Kakhovka Dam by Russia, which, as per #Ukraine's Agriculture Ministry, has left 600,000 hectares (1.44 million acres) of fertile farmland bereft of essential irrigation. Furthermore, Russia's persistent obstruction of the three pivotal Ukrainian ports vital for grain shipments, as well as its recent official withdrawal from the #BlackSea Grain Deal, may likely result in significant disruptions in the international grain market. It's crucial to note that these geopolitical maneuvers are unrelated to the damage inflicted upon the Kerch Bridge linking Crimea to Russia but are more reflective of Russia's strategic geoeconomic positioning. At its core, this move by Russia is a calculated pressure tactic aimed at the West, with the intent of obtaining approval for Rosselkhozbank's inclusion in SWIFT, thereby contravening the prevailing sanctions regime. Achieving this milestone would pave the way for the efficient freight, logistics, and shipping of Russian food commodities and fertilizers, setting a precedent for circumventing Western sanctions and injecting much-needed forex liquidity into the Russian economy. Further, by manufacturing the conditions conducive for Food Crisis 2.0, Russia stands to wield significant leverage over African and Asian countries, given their heavy dependence on Russian commodities. This, in turn, serves to exert additional pressure on the West to acquiesce to Russia's demands. This maneuver by Russia is not an impromptu decision. Instead, it appears to be a meticulously orchestrated strategy developed over several months. Despite the possibility of Turkey dismissing these actions as mere posturing, the gravity of the situation is starkly different, considering the Ukrainian ports' shipments have dwindled to their lowest since the inception of the Black Sea Grain Deal. #geopolitics #Velsig