Luke D

Sal Stewart’s 112 RBI weren’t just impressive. They were extraordinary. And a stat called RE24 explains exactly why. One of the most common criticisms of RBI as a statistic is that driving in runs is dependent on teammates. After all, a hitter can’t drive in runners who aren’t on base to begin with. Makes perfect sense. But Stewart drove in 112 runs for a Cincinnati Reds team that finished LAST in the National League in runs scored and last in all of baseball in batting average and OBP. So how do we separate a hitter’s actual offensive contribution from the opportunities his teammates provide? Enter RE24: Run Expectancy Based on the 24 Base-Out States. RE24 is one of baseball’s most useful advanced statistics for evaluating situational offensive production. Here’s how it works. There are eight possible baserunner configurations: bases empty, runner on first, runner on second, runner on third, first and second, first and third, second and third, and bases loaded. Each configuration can occur with zero, one, or two outs. 8 baserunner configurations × 3 out states = 24 possible situations. Using historical play-by-play data, statisticians calculate the average number of runs a team can expect to score from each of those 24 situations through the end of the inning. Every plate appearance changes that expectation. The formula is: RE24 = Runs Scored on the Play + Run Expectancy After − Run Expectancy Before Here’s a simplified example using illustrative run-expectancy values: A hitter comes to the plate with runners on first and second, nobody out. That situation has an expected run value of approximately 1.5 runs. He doubles, scoring both runners, and ends up on second with nobody out. The new situation has an expected value of approximately 1.1 runs. His RE24 contribution? 2 + 1.1 − 1.5 = +1.6 runs. He didn’t merely collect two RBI. He increased his team’s expected run production by 1.6 runs. Conversely, if he grounded into a double play, his RE24 would be substantially negative because he destroyed a valuable scoring opportunity. This calculation is performed for every plate appearance throughout the season, and the results are added together. Unlike RBI, RE24 accounts for the scoring opportunities a hitter actually receives and measures what he actually does with them. Now let’s look at the final 2026 numbers: SAL STEWART 112 RBI 32 HR 700 PA +19.85 RE24 CARSON BENGE 65 RBI 20 HR 654 PA +13.25 RE24 Stewart generated 49.8% more runs above situational expectation than Benge. And before someone points out that Stewart had more plate appearances, normalize both players to 600 PA: Stewart: +17.01 RE24/600 PA Benge: +12.16 RE24/600 PA Stewart still holds a roughly 40% advantage. Now, RE24 isn’t a perfect statistic. It doesn’t adjust for ballpark, and it doesn’t capture defensive value. It also rewards productive hitting with the bases empty, not just driving runners home. But that’s precisely why it’s useful here. We’re not simply comparing RBI totals. We’re measuring how effectively each hitter improved his team’s run-scoring outlook, accounting for the situations he inherited. And Stewart comes out comfortably ahead in that measurement. 112 RBI wasn’t merely a product of opportunity. Stewart’s +19.85 RE24 demonstrates that he consistently added value beyond the run expectancy of those opportunities. On the National League’s lowest-scoring offense. As a 22-year-old rookie. That’s not just an impressive traditional stat line. That’s an analytically defensible Rookie of the Year performance.