Macro | Monetary | Markets
New York, NY
Joined May 2024
- Tweets3.7K
- Following530
- Followers1.4K
- Likes14.7K
Treasury sold $69B in 2-year notes at 4.708%. Bid-to-cover 2.59, a touch soft. Indirect buyers fell to 45.68%, below the 50% retreat line, with directs picking up the slack. A touch soft heading into Wednesday's FOMC decision.
I just ran the numbers, we're never going to lose again. And in fact, the model made it clear that if the Giants ever do lose again, that would be undeniable evidence that the other 31 teams & Goodell are colluding against the Giants. Presumably to hurt me, personally. I knew it
Lighthouse Macro retweeted
SLOOs (inv, adv +15m) & loan demand (+9m)
-Standards leads demand 4-5Q.
- Demand leads grow by 2-3Q.
- Jan to September: From contracting loan growth to double digit growth
Chart 2:
- Demand (+6m) ➡️ loan growth
- Borrowing ⬆️ coincides with Capex orders ⬆️
To narratively frame it: end of last summer lending standards began to loosen, a little later businesses started shopping for loans again a bit after that a lot more loans were being given out. Those businesses are using those loans to fund their orders.
Credit fueled growth. Still growth. So don’t ignore that part. But I’m much more cautiously watching it than I was earlier in the cycle.
SLOOs (inv, adv +15m) & loan demand (+9m)
-Standards leads demand 4-5Q.
- Demand leads grow by 2-3Q.
- Jan to September: From contracting loan growth to double digit growth
Chart 2:
- Demand (+6m) ➡️ loan growth
- Borrowing ⬆️ coincides with Capex orders ⬆️
UMich sentiment finished October at 48.0, high-yield spreads widened to 340 bps, and the flash PMI slipped to 57.6.
Firms that fund themselves are fine. Borrowers that need outside money at today's real rates are getting sorted out.
This week’s Beacon: lighthousemacro.substack.com…
Lighthouse Macro retweeted
The bigger story for capex this year is real rates. The 10-year TIPS yield started the year at 1.94%, rose to 2.68% on hike day, and reached 2.95% on Oct. 5. That was the highest close since Nov. 24, 2008. The five-year TIPS yield hit 2.73% on Sept. 28, also the highest since November 2008 (Treasury).
If the biggest frauds just beat the most underrated team, I think we might need to recalibrate that model my man.
The bigger story for capex this year is real rates. The 10-year TIPS yield started the year at 1.94%, rose to 2.68% on hike day, and reached 2.95% on Oct. 5. That was the highest close since Nov. 24, 2008. The five-year TIPS yield hit 2.73% on Sept. 28, also the highest since November 2008 (Treasury).
Michigan sentiment finished October at 48.0, high-yield spreads widened to 340 bps, and flash PMI slipped to 57.6.
Firms that fund themselves are fine. Borrowers that need outside money at today's real rates are getting sorted out.
New Beacon: lighthousemacro.substack.com…
I know my best friend, Michael, was fired up reading my tweets last night. He always tells me “I’ll never forget how you gave up on your football dreams to do something far more noble…. Financial Services.” and that meant the world to me. I knew then he’d score for me today.
Norway more like wrong way!! 😂😂😹😹😹😭😭😭😭😭😭🥰 Thanks, I’ll be here all week. Don’t forget to tip your maritime warning beacons.
Yield curve evolution, 2020-2025. The Fed started cutting but the long end didn't get the memo. Term premium is back, and the curve is steepening with Front Wheel Drive. The long end is staring down three years of Treasury supply and wondering who's going to buy it all.
ALT Heatmap showing the evolution of the yield curve over time, with color gradients indicating varying interest rates across different maturities."
