Gold had a nice wake up rally in August after my correction warning back in March. Quality gold miners even outperformed this rally and are near ATH. But u see, the fundamental setup remains unchanged IMHO from March/April. I am long term bullish but don’t like gold here short term (months) due to higher energy prices. We get higher oil, higher diesel, higher inflation and likely higher US rates in September and thereafter. Book it. That, for one, is not bullish. US gold ETFs become marginal sellers or at least not buyers. But my key concern remains weaker EM FX in Turkey due to higher energy cost (both crude and natgas) which may force the gov to sell more gold reserves. So that is an obvious risk factor India is less obvious but matters most. It has a structural problem: it imports nearly all the gold its households buy, and those imports ultimately have to be paid for in foreign currency. Pro Memoria: Indian HH are the 2nd largest gold buyer globally Gold was 8% of merchandise imports in 2025, making it a meaningful drain on FX when demand surges. With the 2026 oil shock simultaneously increasing India’s dollar requirement for energy imports, Modi wants to reduce another large discretionary source of dollar demand. So Modi attacked the gold leg. In May the gov raised the gold import duty from 6% to 15%, tightened import rules and licensing, delayed some bullion-import permissions and Modi personally asked Indians to stop buying gold for a year unless necessary. The World Gold Council explicitly describes these measures as intended to “conserve foreign exchange reserves” amid pressure on INR. As u know, I follow oil with laser eyes and think we will now enter the end game. Ultimately, the SoH will be solved but the coming months will be testing ones. Make no mistake. This is getting real now, even though most are tired to pay attention. Message: I don’t think it is the time to get back into gold. The rally is for 2027. My view anyway