LegalFinancialGuy

Private credit’s maturity wall is growing, but underlying credit stress remains well below the early pandemic levels. As of Q2 2026, just 11% of near-term maturities were to borrowers with non-accrual debt, versus 20% in Q2 2020. The growing maturity wall may reflect not credit deterioration per se, but just a practical reluctance on both sides to prematurely (no pun intended) refinance or commit to new pricing amid a rapidly evolving technological and geopolitical landscape. More likely than not, these uncertainties will persist, creating a 2027 logjam of amend-and-extend transactions and similar deals. Not necessarily a bad setup for relationship lenders that can stick with the borrowers/sponsors they know well enough to underwrite through the macro turbulence while repricing on more attractive terms. Source: @Kirkland_Ellis

Snippet from our latest investor letter providing an update on our views on $APO $BX $BN $OWL (October 2026). The views expressed are solely our own and do not constitute investment advice or an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to invest in, any security or investment product. KSK Capital currently holds positions in Apollo, Blackstone, Brookfield and Blackstone and may buy or sell securities of either company at any time without notice.

Wow! Very useful to be able to contextual its insider transactions in this way, and determine which sale/purchase is signal versus noise - exciting times to be an emerging manager with tools like this at our disposal

Second this - great dashboard, and so helpful in a market that is seemingly dominated by themes and factors.

I wrote the article linked below mainly for friends and colleagues in the business community. It focuses on the questions CEOs and board directors should ask, with the benefit of appropriate advisors, when a highly structured transaction is put in front of them. My hope is that you do not need to know—or particularly care about—the technicalities of tax to follow it. TL;DR: Complex tax-driven deal structures should be evaluated not in isolation, but in the broader context of a business’s strategy, capital allocation, governance, and risk tolerance. That sounds obvious enough, but as some of the case studies suggest, this broader interdisciplinary analysis may not always get the airtime it deserves in the boardroom or C-suite. The intersection of legal structures, business strategy, and market perception is a core area of interest in our approach to investing at KSK Capital. If you’re interested in learning more, please feel free to get in touch. We’d welcome your thoughts and perspectives. All views expressed here are my own and provisional, and any errors are mine as well. ksk.capital/__l5e/assets-v1/…

Excellent report from @RaymondJames on the state of BDCs raymondjames.com/-/media/rj/…

Good data from @Kirkland_Ellis on the state of refinancing in software

KSK Capital is a shareholder of @Wolters_Kluwer ($WKL.AS $WTKWY). Today, we are publishing an open letter encouraging the Board and management to consider whether the Company’s capital-markets structure should evolve to better reflect its substantial North American operating footprint. In particular, we believe Wolters Kluwer should evaluate: (1) a U.S. exchange listing to broaden investor access, liquidity, and visibility; and (2) over time, whether a U.S. corporate domicile would better align the Company’s capital-markets profile with the business it has become. We view these as complementary to management’s focus on positioning Wolters Kluwer for the AI era. Our full letter is linked here: ksk.capital/__l5e/assets-v1/… Disclaimer: The views expressed herein are solely those of KSK Capital and do not constitute investment advice

Great interview with a best-in-class business leader $BX youtu.be/pPrZX_nFS_g?is=mYQa…

Well said! wsj.com/opinion/let-the-bond…

Earlier today, the U.S. Treasury announced that it was doubling buybacks of longer-dated Treasuries as it relies more heavily on short-term issuance. This appears aimed at managing pressure at the long end of the bond market, where investors are demanding greater compensation to lend to the government amid persistently large deficits. But if this trend of long-dated buybacks alongside greater reliance on short-term issuance continues, it could reinforce concerns about the dollar’s long-term purchasing power and leave holders of long-duration fixed income in a bind. Persistent fiscal deficits, reluctance to issue excessive duration, and increasingly active management of long-end liquidity all provide reason to question whether investors are being sufficiently compensated for locking in nominal dollars for 20–30 years. For investors, one rational response may simply be to avoid unnecessary duration risk in fixed income and, in equities, own high-quality businesses at reasonable valuations that can steadily grow earnings power over time. Note: This does not constitute investment advice.

Great article from a great dude open.substack.com/pub/experi…

"There is no resource-management strategy that can prevent disasters, just as there is no political system that provides only good leaders and good policies, nor a scientific method that provides only true theories. But there are ideas that reliably cause disasters . . The only rational policy, in all three cases, is to judge institutions, plans and ways of life according to how good they are at correcting mistakes: removing bad policies and leaders, superseding bad explanations, and recovering from disasters.” ― David Deutsch, The Beginning of Infinity: Explanations That Transform the World

One of the best investor conversations I’ve listened to in a while. Worth your time not only for the market insights, but also for the discussion distinguishing between risk and uncertainty that transcends investing. @Alpha_Ex_LLC youtu.be/zU7cQl4Sqt8?is=kZQr…

A fairly constructive perspective on the private wealth channel from Marc Lipschultz (CEO of @BlueOwlCapital) in the Q&A of the recent Q2 2026 earnings call. $OWL "I, one, I think, important point of color coming out of this very tumultuous period or at least narratively tumultuous, which is there's a lot actually to take away about the durability of the wealth channel and its rationality. Recognize the performance numbers speak, I think, for themselves at this point. We continue to deliver and expect we'll continue to deliver very strong performance. That was true before the superstorm of the narrative. It was true during and it's true after. And I think actually, the channel -- there's a lot to take away that's favorable, even though none of us would have wished this experience, which is First of all, it stayed very concentrated in the products where the narrative and the conversations perhaps got most carried away. Actually, the Concentric circles away from that, even one circle away go to something like asset-backed, and we continue to see both inflows and very minimal outflows. Go to things like ORENT. Again, they're one of the most successful products in the marketplace, raising dividend. Investors are delineating between asset categories. And even those who -- where the narrative perhaps drove behavior, it actually stayed very concentrated. We made this comment before, but the redemption in our core income product, 90% of the investors didn't ask and we're appreciative of it for a single share back because they know the product is working. So the redemption behavior was narrowed to about 10% of the investors in a very specific product. So you actually look out 5 years and say, what do we now know about the wealth channel? I actually think what we know is the structures work. And we know that actually the market is very much able to discern indeed, when there are narrative moments, we all appreciate it's going to have a slightly different deal in that market where people are going to quickly pull back on inflows and you're going to have to deal with outflows for a period of time. But it's much, much more durable and much more narrow than I think anybody probably thought. And even again, the way I think the narrative is today, there's a lot to like about the wealth channel over the medium and long term." @origoinvest @OfcMarshmallow @MantisInvests @skgoodwin23 @kieranwgoodwin

Excellent visual from @origoinvest’s latest deep dive on $OWL

Hollywood may have its Odyssey, but this is the one I’m most excited about! @chriswmayer

Invaluable advice for life and business packed into this lecture from @GrahamCWeaver at @StanfordGSB youtu.be/eQZO-MPpbJg?is=xYBW…

Summer is for reading! Below are a few books we’ve really enjoyed this year - spanning business, personal growth, and a dash of pop culture. If any of these books make it with you on your travels or you have any recs to share, we would love to know. - The Money Trap: @alok_sama gives a front-row account of SoftBank’s dealmaking machine during his years as CFO alongside @nikesharora. Funny, occasionally salacious, and far from the typical sterile business memoir. - Streetwise: @lloydblankfein is funny, direct, and refreshingly free of corporate-speak. His path from public housing to Harvard Law, commodities sales, and eventually CEO of Goldman Sachs makes for a candid and memorable read. - The Fairfax Way: Many books will eventually be written about Fairfax Financial and its founder Prem Watsa, but @MrDavidThomas may be remembered as the first, shining light on the company's ethos of integrity and discipline. - Born to Be Wired: The John Malone empire is vast, spanning cable, media, live sports and more, yet Malone is still not quite a household name. Plenty to learn from the OG “Cable Cowboy.” - The Snowball: Essential reading for anyone interested in Warren Buffett. The book opens with Buffett’s cautionary Sun Valley speech during the dot-com boom, setting the stage for a remarkable biography of business, character, and compounding. - Runnin' Down a Dream: Legendary VC @bgurley offers thoughtful advice on finding or creating work aligned with your deepest fascinations. The “flywheel” of running down a dream is hard to beat. - The Problem of Twelve: Harvard Law faculty member John Coates gives us a sharp critique of just how much power has concentrated in a handful of U.S. financial institutions. - What Art Does: This short, creative book of questions and puzzles is a gift to the right side of the brain! - Undermoney: Jay Newman, a former lawyer and portfolio manager, writes a hyper-realistic financial thriller (perhaps an n of 1 genre). - How to Make a Few More Billion Dollars: Brad Jacobs walks through the invaluable mental models he has used to radically disrupt slow-moving industries, including waste management, heavy equipment rentals, transportation and logistics, and most recently, building products. - The Tao of Fundraising: John Kim has written what is probably the best book on capital fundraising informed by his career raising many tens of billions of dollars.