Line Matching

alright here we are: - will be a website this year, not a google sheet - on-site chat instead of discord - same shit as every other season with projections, ranks, etc. - same price as last year ($60/mth, $300/season) - 15% discount on the first month on patreon til Oct 10th

between the earlier game preview thread (CHI@CAR) and now (MTL@TOR), i prettied up the cards a little bit & dumped some info that was overlapping so the threads aren't as long

Team Card: TOR

Team Card: MTL

Goalie Comparison: Jacob Fowler vs. Sergei Bobrovsky

Player Comparison: Nick Suzuki vs. Auston Matthews

Best Bets: MTL @ TOR

Game Preview: MTL @ TOR

Player Comparison: Connor Bedard vs. Sebastian Aho

Expected Home Goalie to Watch: Pyotr Kochetkov

Home Team Player to Watch: Sebastian Aho

Best Bets: CHI @ CAR

Game Preview: CHI @ CAR

added a small thing on the betting page

Bets: PIT now a bet NJD gap closed from 2.4% to 5.1% (still no bet) DAL gap improved to 5.2% (still no bet) MTL/UTA leans UTA now (leaned MTL) but no bet

Varlamov −0.9 Blackwood −0.5 Swayman, Soderblom and Dobes −0.4 Hellebuyck +0.6 Bussi and Cossa +0.4 Merilainen and Hart +0.3

Biggest drops (DK points): Thomas −0.7, Holloway −0.6, Snuggerud −0.5, McTavish −0.5, McMichael −0.5 Suzuki −0.7, Slafkovsky −0.6 Scheifele −0.6, Vilardi −0.5, Connor −0.4 Nugent-Hopkins −0.5, Raymond −0.4

Biggest gains (DK points): Kucherov +1.2, Point +1.1, Guentzel +1.1, Hagel +0.8 Jarvis +1.0, Aho +0.9, Svechnikov +0.9, Blake +0.7, Gostisbehere +0.7, Ehlers +0.6 Josi +0.9, Makar +0.7, Drysdale +0.6 Forsberg +0.6, Michkov +0.6

Teams with the biggest change in expected goals: CAR 3.17 → 3.48 TBL 4.33 → 4.54 PIT 3.36 → 3.55 NSH 2.76 → 2.92 COL 3.80 → 3.93 STL 2.78 → 2.55 MTL 3.22 → 3.08 UTA 3.20 → 3.31

based on those model changes2121, here are some of the impacts for tonight (not including any impacted by line changes)

6) finer bet sizing just using .05 steps in units, not a major change but increases ROI by 1%