Senior Economist with @NERI_research. Independent Expert on 'Good Jobs' to NI Minister for Economy. Views expressed here are my own.

Belfast/Donegal
Joined October 2011
Dr Lisa Wilson retweeted
The hospitality industry wants their VAT cut to 10%. It will cost £12bn Who benefits? ❌ The smallest most vulnerable businesses? Nope. 45% get nothing. ❌ Consumers? Nope - prices won't fall. ✅ Nearly half the cash goes straight to large chains. McDonald's gets £400m. 🧵:
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1/ There's a proposal to halve hospitality VAT in Northern Ireland for four years. Apparently, it's an experiment to see whether we can unlock economic growth. Before we get carried away, there are some fairly fundamental questions worth asking.
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12/ I'm not arguing against hospitality. I'm arguing against confusing a sectoral tax cut with an economic growth strategy. If the objective is to help struggling small businesses, target the support. If it's to improve tourism, invest in what attracts visitors.
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If it's to grow the economy, invest in productivity. Let's be clear about what is being proposed. This is a tax cut funded by the public, with no requirement to lower prices, raise wages or improve working conditions.
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Dr Lisa Wilson retweeted
EXCLUSIVE John Healey will announce plans to increase the minimum wage by nearly 4 per cent but slow the rise for young people after warnings that they are being priced out of jobs The Times has been told that the national living wage, which applies to those aged 21 and over, is expected to rise from £12.71 to around £13.20 — an increase of 3.9 per cent However, Healey has decided not to repeat the big rises of the past two budgets in the national minimum wage, which applies to those aged 18 to 21 It will rise broadly in line with the rate for older workers - from £10.85 to around £11.27, an increase of 3.9 per cent It effectively spells the end of Labour’s manifesto pledge to bring the “discriminatory” minimum wage for young people into line with the living wage for older workers in this parliament The minimum wage increased by 26 per cent between 2025 and 2026, leading to stark warnings from employers that it risked impeding efforts to get 1 million “Neets” - young people not in education, employment or training - into work. Healey alluded to the approach in an interview with The Times last week, in which he spoke of the importance of the “trade-off between the level of the minimum wage and the employment rate” thetimes.com/article/c9142a2…
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Dr Lisa Wilson retweeted
And the money has to come from somewhere. A £12bn VAT cut means higher borrowing, lower spending or higher taxes elsewhere. Each has its own economic cost.
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