Interestingly, the S&P 500 has closed above its 200-week moving average for 200 consecutive weeks.

The current market story: While large caps have stalled in a short-term trading range, the uptrends in mid and small caps remain intact. Viewed through the lens of S&P 1500 stocks above their 200-day moving average, market participation continues to expand.

Thank you @DKellerCMT for teaching technicians the value of scenario analysis. Inspired by his work, this chart applies a volatility-based framework to map potential S&P 500 outcomes over the next two months.

Another all-time closing high for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. That's the 8th of the year.

Mag7 ETF breaking below key AVWAPs as relative strength deteriorates. Not a good look.

The S&P 500 is <0.5% above its 200-day moving average after 211 days above it. What happens when runs this long finally break? Find out here: dropbox.com/scl/fi/julpxt5q8… redcedarresearch.com

New highs for large-, small-, and micro-caps...

S&P 500 back into the "bullish momentum range."

After 138 trading days, SPX just ended its longest run above the 50-day moving average since the 2009 bottom.

The VIX futures curve flipped into backwardation. Short-term stress priced above long-term calm. What matters next: 1) Spot VIX retreats, the storm has passed 2) Longer dated futures drop and front stays high, stress is more persistent 3) Inversion lingers, uncertainty remains

Our relative sector positioning versus the S&P 500 was unchanged this month. No shifts in overweight, underweight, or zero-weight stances. The model remains overweight XLU, XLK, XLI, XLF, XLC; underweight XLY, XLP, XLB; and out of XLV, XLRE, and XLE.

In the large-cap space, technology closed last month at a 12-month high in price and relative strength. Also, 12-month price highs from XLI and XLU. My CedarCore sector model is running overweight: XLC, XLI, XLK, XLF, and XLU. Underweight or out: XLB, XLE, XLP, XLRE, XLV, XLY.

Strength from small and large caps since the April low.

The Value Line Geometric Avg. tracks ~1,700 N. American stocks and uses a geometric mean to better reflect broad participation vs. cap-weighted indexes. Just closed above its 52-wk avg, historically bullish for the S&P 500 since 1975, and is breaking out of a multi-year base.

With small caps now above their 200-day moving averages alongside mid and large caps, this marks a constructive development across capitalization tiers. The percentage of S&P 1500 stocks trading above their own 200-day averages is also back above 50%.

High yield spreads just slipped below the 200-day. A narrowing spread = rising confidence. Historically, that's a better-than-average bullish backdrop for S&P 500. Worth watching.

SPX with DMI and RSI. Because of the strength of the move down from mid-Feb to mid-March, the probability favors, at least, a retest of the mid-March low. From there, watching for a positive momentum divergence and rally or a failure...

Watching to see if issues above their 50-day can continue to climb.

Nasdaq w/ most net highs of the year.

GLD. New high.