lukedonay

Per the NY Fed Q4 2023 report, delinquencies while rising remain below that of pre-2020 levels and below most data going back to 2003.

A look at the CPI YoY on both a headline and core basis. Headline falling from the previous report of 3.4% to 3.1% Core consistent with the previous report at 3.9%

There is almost never an “all clear” environment. You can sit and worry about the consumer, foreign banks, and macro matters. You can wait and wait until everything is near perfect. But then again, that’s why the majority ends up buying at the top and selling the bottom.

Sam Altman leaves OpenAI, Mira Murati appointed interim boss @CNBC cnbc.com/2023/11/17/sam-altm…

Everyone is focused on this massive $NVDA move in the past week. $NVDA currently trades at 32x P/E NTM. Less than half the P/E in May. That multiple is lower than when the stock hit lows in 2022 around $93. Yes, the stock is cheaper at $480 than it was at $93.

The market has rapidly moved higher but let’s look ahead. Internal readings already hitting upper bounds. Macro data reflecting weakening environment, when does bad news become bad news? Further supply in fixed income world to come next week. 3yr, 10yr, 30yr Yield curves deepened this week, moving further from positive territory. SPX hitting resistance at 4367ish today, yet to backtest 4305 and several bull gaps left below. Where’s next week heading?

WSJ: Nvidia’s $5 Billion of China Orders in Limbo After Latest U.S. Curbs $NVDA wsj.com/tech/nvidias-5-billi…

Now that roughly 50% of the S&P 500 has reported numbers this quarter some key takeaways can be had; Earnings are solid and margin management has been good. Revenue has disappointed. Guidance has been lack luster for Q4 and 2024 as management teams grow cautious.

Bears out in full force today. Considering technicals of both indexes and individual stocks (especially leaders) it’s hard not to be.

Heading into the week with stretched internals and a lot of market participants jumping on the bear train. Wouldn’t be surprised to see market give the other direction a try……

USD/JPY last few minutes 👀

This aged well. We shall see what is ahead post CPI in the morning.

A lot of market indicators nearing levels at which bottoms typically start to form. Bears too bearish?

Yesterday we almost hit 4200, a crucial level over the last two years nearly. Everyone was and is calling for lower now, despite just months ago they were asking for 4200 to enter long. Interesting shift. Market lower or higher from now to year end?

Streaming companies raising prices and lowering content in both quantity and quality. Will be interesting to see how long that lasts.

Yields up, dollar up, USD/JPY up… Hmmm

When sentiment skews strongly bearish or bullish you will see insane takes that the masses will attempt to justify. Stay the course.

When has the Fed not overstepped? When have they not over-tightened? When have they not over-eased? Makes you wonder, what evidence supports the thesis that they won’t over-tighten again?

The bankruptcies continue to pile up.

Eat - Sleep- Markets Our work is never over.