Bringing advanced MLS analytics to the fan. A model that values every touch, tackle and contract. Contact: [email protected]
Joined October 2026
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The data backs it up:
- Columbus' 2.2% low is the lowest of any playoff club since 2013
- 67 clubs have been 9+ pts below the line with 9 or fewer matches left. Only Columbus got in
- 21 pts from their last 8. No club from 2013-25 finished a season with more than 20
Wanted to come back to this. Not sure the Crew are getting enough attention for what they accomplished this season. On September 15th, the Crew had just a 2.2% chance to make playoffs. This is the hottest run we may have seen in MLS history.
Here's what I've got for playoff probabilities for the West teams. Three control their own destiny. The three others need some help. Additionally, Nashville is at a 66% chance to break the points record.
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1,336
Soft spots? Neither defence has a clear one: opponents attack both down the left, center, and right in about the league's proportions.
Both are stingy (1.28 xG conceded a match, 6th- and 7th-fewest), and Columbus give up the 3rd-fewest chances from the middle of the box.
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Columbus attack down the right: 45% of their box entries start there, 2nd in MLS, and it's held all season featuring Moreira, Chambost, and Méndez.
Dallas come through the middle more than most (23% of final-third entries, 4th) and reach the box from the left.
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Opposite styles. Dallas average just 2.3 passes per possession (28th of 30) and play just 17% of goal kicks short, the fewest in MLS (next lowest: 33%). Columbus under Laurent Courtois: 3.5 passes per possession, 3rd.
1
105
Not that many games with that high of impact tonight but the one worth watching as a neutral: Dallas vs. Columbus. Dallas may be able to sneak into the 1st seed while Columbus continues to claw for a playoff spot. Match preview thread below:
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103
Nashville dominant in today's Supporters' Shield clinching win. Do they go all out for the points record now? Looking more likely than not they break it.
2
853
Biggest game of the weekend! U22 star Habroune goes up against the electric DP in Sargent. Who you got?
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84
Massive win for Cincinnati. Result was deserved and moves Cincinnati's odds to make playoffs up to 77%. D.C. United look all but out of playoff contention.
50
Well deserved extension for Pierre. The highest rated U22 regular per 90, by my model. Also already one of the premier CBs in MLS at only 19 years old. The future is bright in Philadelphia.
9
940
Model just doesn't seem to see it with Mbokazi, Ellis, and Tsakiris. However, the panel can vote on ceiling and future, not just production, and a one season number doesn't encapsulate those.
89
With MLS's official 22 Under 22 out, I figured I'd compile the model's top 22 by performance per 90.
Synchuk seems to be massively underrated by cast ballots. Underlying numbers are very strong, even though production isn't all the way there.
Biggest snubs? Biggest surprises?
Comparison to the official list below.
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140
Your eyes don't deceive you from what the data says as well.
Among the 21 players who touch the ball in the most similar areas, only 2 cover less ground per 90 than Evander.
Offensively elite with the ball, but the discourse around his effort may be well founded.
MLS Weekend in Review:
Six East teams. Three points apart. Two playoff places.
Cincinnati 63%
Columbus 44%
Red Bulls 29%
NYCFC 27%
Toronto 25%
D.C. United 13%
Who gets in?
112
What to watch for in MLS tonight (10/17):
Minnesota did Vancouver a favor. With St. Louis beaten, Vancouver's chance of finishing first in the West is 76%.
Win at Austin tonight (8:30 ET) and it's 85%, even with Thomas Müller listed out. Lose and it's 55%, with FC Dallas two points back.
126
What to watch for tonight in MLS (10/17):
The West's last playoff places get settled at 10:30 ET: Galaxy v San Diego and Portland v Colorado.
Minnesota's 3–2 win over St. Louis took them to 34 points, but Real Salt Lake, Portland and San Diego sit a point behind with a game in hand.
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