🧠| Tracking Macro Flows Live On Your Chart 📖| Playbooks for Red Folder Events 👨🏫| Live Analysis Sessions 💵| DM "Fed" for a free Live FOMC Webinar
🌎
Joined May 2024
- Tweets7.3K
- Following57
- Followers7.9K
- Likes2.1K
What most traders don't realize about this week's Fed decision:
It was a 10-2 vote, not unanimous.
Rates held at 3.75–4.00%, but the split shows the Fed isn't aligned anymore, and the market is already pricing a December hike.
Inflation is coming back, so the Fed can't relax.
700 traders watched us trade the event LIVE as we called a gold sell from 4075 right when the decision hit.
Watch it here👇
Logan said the Fed needs two more hikes. Wait until you see what she said next...
"After 50bp, a pause would make sense."
Sounds dovish right? Well It isn't.
The pause only comes after more hikes, and she called inflation above 2% unacceptable.
So the market starts pricing more hikes and fewer cuts. That pushes yields and the dollar higher, and gold and stocks feel it first.
News Flow tags every line hawkish or dovish the moment it drops, and flags when a speaker contradicts herself.
It's all in the image below.
3,875 is the level you should watch if you trade gold.
📉 Gold hit a 4-month low
📉 Silver broke below $50
This is all because the Fed was neutral to hawkish and a December hike is still open, and that is pressuring gold.
And you also have to watch the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East, because any headline there can move gold fast.
So if gold breaks 3,888, price can go lower to 3,838.
Be honest, do you think you should hold gold at this support?
If you only watch price, you're always a step late.
Here's one thing that moves stocks more than the news itself:
→ Everyone already bet on the outcome
→ The news lands and matches the bet
→ Price barely moves, or sells off anyway
Example: the Fed cuts rates and stocks drop. Why? The market priced the cut in weeks ago. The cut was old news.
Before any big event, ask what's already in the price. You trade the surprise, not the headline.
Be honest, how many times has this burned you?
You're losing THOUSANDS of dollars every red folder event you trade without knowing what's priced in.
Our co-founder @Capital_Hungry just dropped Macro Masterclass 2.
He breaks down:
→ Why funds position weeks before the Fed
→ The 6 things he checks before every red folder event
→ How you read what's priced in before the data drops
→ What could set off the next repricing in Gold, DXY and NQ
The masterclass is FREE.(check the first reply)👇
Amazon, Alphabet Crash The Nasdaq: Buy The Dip Or Wait? nitter.gq/i/broadcasts/1RJjpbgMX…
99% of traders are missing this.
When funds are long, retail is long, and every headline is bullish, the trade feels like a sure thing.
Everyone's in. Everyone agrees.
And that's exactly the problem. 👇
Full masterclass dropping soon.
youtube.com/watch?v=9kyqQFbF…
If you sat through FOMC yesterday asking "was Warsh hawkish or dovish?", News Flows would have told you what he meant in 3 seconds.
→ Each sentence from the podium labeled hawkish or dovish the moment it was said
→ Each headline linked to the bigger macro story it fits into
→ Each headline paired with past lookalikes, plus what price did next
Start using it today👇
We just cracked one of the hardest parts of trading.
Reading the Fed in real time.
One sentence from the Fed Chair:
“Economic growth is higher, but this does not mean it causes inflation.”
🔴 First half: hawkish
🟢 Second half: dovish
One headline BUT completely two opposite tones.
Now try decoding that sentence after sentence, for an entire press conference, in real time.
Most traders hear one sentence. The market hears two.
So we built News Flow in @MRKT_AI.
→ Every Fed line tagged hawkish or dovish as it’s spoken
→ Every speaker scored on whether they actually move markets
→ Every headline tied to the bigger story
→ Every headline matched to similar ones from the past, and what the market did next
Breaking news without context is just noise.
News Flow is LIVE on MRKT.
Watch 👇
Most traders see "PCE 8:30 AM" and just pray.
The FREE calendar shows you the bank range on PCE y/y and the playbook for how the dollar may react:
→ Forecast: 3.6%
→ Dollar playbook ready before the print
Check the free Economic Calendar 👇
mrktedge.ai/economic-calenda…
Live Trading GDP & PCE: Will Inflation Change The Fed’s Path? nitter.gq/i/broadcasts/1RKZzBavR…
2 Fed officials wanted a hike yesterday.
Today's inflation number decides if they get it in December.
What happened:
→ The Fed held at 3.75-4.00%, but the vote was 10-2 and both no votes wanted higher rates
→ Warsh said inflation is too high and it's the Fed's job to bring it down
What's next, 8:30 AM ET:
→ PCE, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. Expected 3.6% vs 3.4% last time
→ Hotter than that: a December hike gets more likely, the dollar firms up, Gold and Nasdaq feel it
→ Cooler: both get some breathing room
Gold is already down about 1% and NQ is lower after Alphabet's miss.
Be honest, are you trading the print or waiting for the dust to settle?
The most valuable trading masterclass you'll ever watch drops for free this Friday
@Capital_Hungry, one of the best trading educators in the space, told us what actually makes markets move during red folder events
If the fed decision blindsided you today, this is for you
If you ever froze during an FOMC press conference, this is for you.
You don't need to decode every word. You need to see:
→ which headline hit
→ what the tone was
→ how flows reacted right after
This is literally why our users were one step ahead of everyone else.
Rates held steady and increase in December hike bets
The real trade is 30 minutes away and we're breaking it down LIVE right now!!
Join us here
LIVE Trading the FOMC | Gold, Nasdaq & USD nitter.gq/i/broadcasts/1DxleVADX…
