In blockchain since 2014 Creator of Blockenomy/FAPL, redefining value distribution—from high-volume systems to next-gen business models #Crypto #Innovation #Biz
Warsaw, Rotterdam, Prague
Joined March 2013
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KT-WNCM8N👋BTC 2023 vs 2026.
Similar duration.
Similar magnitude.
Different market plumbing.
The key test is Sep 25–26, after the quarterly options reset.
We’re tracking the setup through an internal multi-factor framework across structure, positioning, flows and macro.
Two paths:
Break & hold → the 2023 rhyme weakens.
Fail & reverse → the rhyme stays alive.
Not a price call.
A reaction-function test.
#BTC #Bitcoin #crypto #KTOR #HumanBadge
🤖 Made with AI
KT-4BHE7W Second barrel, Sept 30
The print: core PCE 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected, 3.0% y/y vs 3.3%. Cooler on both counts. The dollar sold off within seconds and BTC jumped from ~$83.7k back into the $85–86.5k rejection zone — at 14:30 CEST to the minute.
What this does to the dark-half hypothesis: the Feb-2023 reversal required a cascade of hot data in one direction. We got a hot PMI (first barrel fired as registered, the flush bought by ETFs through a nine-day inflow streak) — and then a cool PCE. The cascade broke. That's a qualitative difference from 2023, not a nuance.
The hypothesis of Feb 23 isn't dead yet, though, and I won't call it on one candle. Operationalizing the registered condition: three consecutive daily closes at or above $86k — Wed, Thu, Fri, the last one after Friday's payrolls — with ETF flows non-negative across those sessions.
Two gates left: ISM tomorrow, payrolls Friday — heavier than usual, with the Fed openly split (Williams: no urgency; Barr: more adjustments likely). A hot jobs print weighs more than a cool one here.
KT-Q5ZG7H Sept 23, as registered: flash PMI at 58.4 — the hottest since July 2021 — pushed the 10Y through 5%. BTC was rejected at $87k and fell below $84k at the Wall Street open. The dark half's first tripwire fired on schedule. Now the discriminator: do ETFs buy this dip (Feb '23 says no, Mar '24 says yes)? Friday: core PCE + options expiry, max pain $72k.
KT-WMG742🔥The Senate votes on the CLARITY Act tomorrow. The most important part of the revised text survives either outcome: the control test. 🔥
A protocol is "non-decentralized" if:
• a person or coordinated group can materially alter its functionality, operation or rules
• its controllers can restrict users
• its transactions aren't governed SOLELY by transparent, pre-established code
Translation: P2P settlement alone no longer makes you DeFi.
The test reaches the app layer — KYC front-ends, admin keys, upgradeable contracts, off-chain matching. And the least discussed piece: execution. If one operator decides the ordering and speed of your orders, it decides the outcome of your trade. P2P is the technology; control is the service.
Shields exist: neutral software and DLT systems as such don't register; security-council seats ≠ control. The DAO boundary gets drawn later, in SEC/CFTC rulemaking.
The politics just moved too: this weekend the White House accepted new ethics language — reportedly ~80% of Democratic demands — so Tuesday is genuinely open for the first time in months. But the control test survives either way: pass → statute; fail → SEC/CFTC rulemaking under existing authority. The CFTC is already preparing.
MiCA leaves the exact same boundary open in its "fully decentralized" exemption. Both sides of the Atlantic are converging on one dividing line: intermediation vs autonomous code. Function over label.
And notice the symmetry: the revised text asks "who controls?" at both ends — protocols (the control test) and power (officials, judges and spouses banned from issuing or sponsoring digital assets). Consumer protection against manipulation, whether the manipulator holds admin keys or public office.
Real permissionless protocols may finally earn a regulatory premium. DeFi-in-name-only gets a fork in the road: decentralize for real, or register.
#BTC #crypto #DeFi #DEX #KTOR #HumanBadge
lummis.senate.gov/wp-content…
KT-CHWVB9 This is happenning. 72 hours after cloture failed 50–49, the rulemaking bridge is arriving in real time — three moves in three days:
1️⃣ SEC: a five-year Innovation Exemption for trading tokenized equities on-chain — 24/7 trading, instant settlement, fractional ownership, self-custody. Issuers must be notified and can object; synthetic price-trackers stay outside the exemption.
2️⃣ CFTC: Staff Letter 26-25 extends the March Phantom precedent to an entire category of qualifying passive software providers — non-custodial software connecting users to regulated derivatives markets ≠ introducing broker.
3️⃣ Congress, through the side door: H.R. 8957 (American Reserve Modernization Act) — a statutory Strategic Bitcoin Reserve with a 20-year no-sale lockup and public proof-of-reserves — cleared the House Financial Services Committee 28–21.
Caveats worth naming: a staff letter is a no-action position, not a rule — it can be withdrawn as easily as it was issued; the SEC exemption sunsets after five years; and ARMA still needs the full House, the Senate and a signature — while mandating no purchases at all.
As argued before - the control-and-access questions don't disappear — they migrate to the agencies.
KT-EYJA8P Cloture failed 50–49. As argued: the control test now travels the rulemaking route — watch the SEC's Regulation Crypto Assets proposal and the CFTC's prepared framework
KT-W45TAB ⭐ In January 2023, Bitcoin broke out of a bear market while almost nobody believed it. For three weeks I've been testing — publicly, with falsifiable rules — whether August 2026 is rhyming. This is the week that decides, so I'm registering the hypothesis before the outcome, not after. ⭐
🧲 The setup. On August 19–25, BTC rose 28% on the largest short liquidation on record (~$2.7B) and printed its most extreme 4-hour RSI-based-MA reading since at least January 2022 (88.8 vs. 81–84 at every prior anomaly). Exactly like January 2023, the breakout came out of a deep drawdown, powered by forced buying — not leveraged euphoria: futures open interest in BTC terms FELL ~11% during the rally. 🧲
** The rhyme since. Correction through time, not price. Four consecutive higher weekly closes from the $63k low; the highest weekly close since January. And a market that keeps absorbing bad news: ** a hawkish Fed speech cost −3%, Gulf escalation with oil above $90 cost −2.2%, and a payrolls print at 3x consensus cost −2%. Each shock shallower than the last — the wall-of-worry signature of early 2023.
Three structural echoes of that turn, all firing now: first weekly reclaim of the 50-week EMA since the November 2025 breakdown; options skew positive for the first time since the October 2025 top; and the 90-day BTC–gold correlation above 50% — a six-year high, the same regime shift (0 → 0.5) that preceded the 2023 rally.
What's honestly different: the macro impulse is worse. The Fed is debating a HIKE, not cuts. Bond yields sit at multi-decade highs. And the September 4 retest of $80.3k failed by ~1% on the payrolls beat. If the market still behaves like 2023 despite a worse macro impulse — that's the signal, not the chart pattern.
Which engine drives it — liquidity or regulation? The market just simplified the experiment: the Clarity Act is priced near death (~16% on Polymarket ahead of Monday's cloture vote), so regulation is almost out of the equation. Meanwhile Treasury's doubled long-end buybacks (min. $4B per operation) went live TODAY. That makes this week nearly a pure liquidity-and-rates test:
Sept 9 — buybacks live. Sept 11, 8:30 ET — CPI (above 3.2% y/y = pressure; below 3.0% = relief). Sept 15, 2:15 ET — Senate cloture. Sept 15–16 — FOMC.
Pre-registered falsification: sustained ETF outflows plus loss of the ~$76.4k aggregate cost basis = the thesis fails, and I'll say so here. So far the tape says the opposite — $3.5B of ETF inflows in August, +$730M last Thursday (the biggest day since January), and net inflows even on the red payrolls day.
Whatever Bitcoin does between these four dates will tell us which engine this market actually runs on.
Observation, not investment advice.
#BTC #Bitcoin #KTOR #HumanBadge
KT-PYRYJZ Bitcoin trades 24/7. Its price discovery doesn't anymore.
I ran ~61,000 hourly candles of BTC/EUR (Kraken, 2019–2025), splitting weeks into TradFi hours vs the Fri-US-close → Mon-Asia-open dead zone:
• 2019: weekend volatility ≈ 96% of weekday. 2025: ≈ 62%
• Sharp hourly moves (>1.5%): 2019 — nearly equal. 2025 — 3.3x rarer on weekends
• Last 3 months: median weekend move ~60% below weekdays, volume ~45% lower
The twist: the break came in 2022–23 (post-FTX deleveraging), BEFORE the ETFs. The ETF era just locked it in. Kaiko saw the same: weekend volume share 28% (2019) → record 16%. "Death of the weekend warrior."
Not "retail is dead" — weekends still carry ~22% of trades but only ~15% of volume. Small orders, no steering wheel.
TradFi now sets the clock for Bitcoin.
Next test: Sept 11 CPI. Watch WHEN the move happens, not just how big.
Own calc, Kraken BTC/EUR 1h. Not advice.
#BTC #crypto #KTOR #HumanBadge
KT-Z8C4JD ** A potentially important macro shift for #crypto : **
🌟Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says the old global “savings glut” is becoming a “global investment surge.”🌟
AI + energy + infrastructure + capex are competing for capital.
US 10Y: ~4.78%, highest since early 2025.
The question may no longer be only “Will the Fed hike?”
It may become:
What if long-term yields stay structurally high even without aggressive Fed tightening?
Potentially bad for liquidity-sensitive assets, like #crypto.
But potentially another reason for BTC to trade increasingly as a fiscal/debasement hedge.
Source: Reuters
reuters.com/business/finance…
#BTC #Bitcoin #crypto #KTOR #HumanBadge
KT-8R2KAC Bitcoin just crossed an important technological line.
On Aug 26, the first quantum-resistant Bitcoin transaction was mined on mainnet (block 964,199) — no hard fork, no soft fork, no change to consensus rules.
To be clear: this does not make Bitcoin quantum-safe. It's a proof of concept — one transaction at a time, pre-SegWit addresses only, hours of computation, hand-delivered to a mining pool because standard nodes won't relay the format. The real long-term path is BIP-360.
But one of BTC's biggest long-term tail risks just moved from "can this be mitigated?" to "one mitigation has now run on mainnet."
Cycle history may rhyme — BTC back near $80K, U.S. spot-ETF demand returning. But this time the asset enters the phase with regulated ETFs, institutional rails, and a demonstrated quantum defense.
That is a materially different Bitcoin.
starkware.co/blog/the-first-…
#BTC #Bitcoin #QuantumSafe #BIP360
KT-DHTKJN **A record high from January 1, 2022**
time, the highest RSI-based MA 4-hour bullish anomaly in this period.
The statistical result for further growth/decrease in this period so far:
4.5 : 1.5
What will happen next?
Here's a summary of the results of all the major RSI-based MA 4-hour bullish anomalies for BTC/EUR – major because each one was above 80 during this period. Plus, a summary of what happened to the price in the next few weeks.
**August 22, 2026**
Result 88.77, what's next?
**November 12, 2024**
Result: 81.21, then a significant additional increase
**February 29, 2024**
Result: 83.74, then a significant additional increase
**December 6, 2023**
Result: 83.51, then stabilization
**October 26, 2023**
Result: 81.99, then a significant additional increase
**June 22, 2023**
Result: 82.99, then a significant decrease
**January 14, 2023**
Result: 83.16, then a significant additional increase
#BTC #crypto
KT-6FJ7ND Testing Phase 5d of the Human Badge solution from KickTech KTOR (note - this post has no substantive value, it is only used to verify the correct operation of the KTOR Human Badge system a part of KTOR from our KickTech)
KT-98TNH5 Testing the Human Badge solution from KickTech (note - this post has no substantive value, it is only used to verify the correct operation of the KTOR Human Badge system from KickTech)
We have a great time ahead of us for the next stage of development in the KickTech project in the coming months.
🚀 KickTech Update after 3 months of running liquidity pool experiments for $PTF!
We tracked 19 tech brand tokens on Solana, watching how they perform vs. SOL as the base. Attached are charts + our key takeaways 👇
🔎 Observations:
Out of 18 brand tokens paired with $PTF, only 1 (MON3Y) shows signs of a real startup-like trajectory → steadily growing vs. SOL over months.
The rest? Mostly speculative spikes, then long-term underperformance vs. SOL.
Meanwhile, $PTF itself — acting as a Treasury base — tracks SOL fairly closely, showing that the market self-regulates its value.
📌 What’s next for KickTech:
1️⃣ Supporting startups only if they build a real Treasury for growth & operate transparently from it. (Talks already ongoing with the first candidate project 👀)
2️⃣ Over the next 1–3 months we’ll test an active Treasury model with 100M $PTF → selling into USDC & rebuying with market trends. ⚠ Expect sharp $PTF price moves during this test!
3️⃣ If successful → migration from $PTF to new KickTech tokens (details to come).
Stay tuned & wish us luck as we move from theory → execution 🚀
#Solana #KickTech #DeFi #Crypto #Treasury #PTF #Brandtokens #MemeCoin
🚨 Big News for Solana Users! 🚨
Solana just landed on MetaMask – and this is a serious game-changer for Web3.
✨ One wallet. Many chains. One clean interface.
No more juggling between wallets for EVM and Solana. Now you can manage your Solana assets natively right from your MetaMask Extension – send, receive, swap, bridge, and explore dApps 🚀
🛡️ Same trusted MetaMask security – now available for Solana too:
Real-time alerts
Malicious dApp detection
Transaction simulations
🎯 Create or import your Solana wallet, and you're ready to go. Solana support for the mobile app is just weeks away.
And this is just the beginning – non-EVM chains are coming next 👀
🔗 Update your MetaMask Extension and dive into the Solana ecosystem today.
@solana #MetaMask #Web3 #Crypto @ProTokenFun @KickTech_ #Solana
Good, reliable and concincient job, guys! 🕶️🍳
Our $PTF's rank on RugCheck has been GOOD and NO INSIDER NETWORK are present 👌
#PTF @solana #KickTech @KickTech_
There's a new version of this post
On May 10 at Solana Build Station Warsaw, I ran a workshop (KickTech) on how engineers can team up with AI to go from “builder” to “startup founder” 🧠⚙️
The goal? Quickly validate market potential (or identify what’s missing) using the Lean Startup method by Eric Ries 🚀
Some great connections were made — and we’re rooting for all the teams entering Solana Startup Village Warsaw! 🙌🌍
@solana #SOL #PTF #KickTech @SuperteamPOL @ProTokenFun
Will the PTF token later be exchanged with KickTech with 1:1?
Yes, although there might be more KickTech tokens in the future — and $PTF could still represent part of the community within KickTech 🌱
Hard to say how it'll all look in detail right now — we're still deep in MVP experiments and chasing a viable business model, all according to the roadmap (running till end of August):
👉 protoken.fun/plan/
Once we’ve got solid traction and data showing real business potential for KickTech, we’ll start shaping the process for transitioning from $PTF to KickTech tokens 🔁
Fun fact: we’re already seeing early positive effects in $PTF transaction volume and liquidity after launching
Experiment 2: Liquidity Pools (LP) Linking $PTF to Club Tokens 💧📈
More data = better design for what’s next. Stay tuned! 🚀
#KickTechClub #KickTech @ProTokenFun #PTF
