Salman Javed

Third, they understand any conflict on the pattern of previous two will call for availability of huge stock pile of precision munitions in the zone, both for US and Israel. According to popular assessments, they have consumed such munitions upto half or two third of stocks held before June 25 which can not be replenished even in next 3-5 years. Hence, a repetition of integrated offensive similar to campaign design of last two conflicts appear impossible. Fourth, one can assume Iran must be heavily relying on strategic intelligence inputs from superpowers ranked number two and three on overall assessment of US Israel’s joint capacity for another kinetic round. There could also be a tacit understanding of final signal from either of the two giants for when to partially back down on the list of demands. Nation states don’t embark upon risky undertakings without a fall back position clearly worked out. Moreover, such fall back positions are tabled according to precisely worked out decision templates. Most of the above geo-political realities do carve out a space for Iran to call the US bluff to negotiate a deal on their terms. They know, if they don’t stretch US to certain limits they will have to abandon not only the nuclear programme but also their foreign policy preference and alliances sustained on religious sentiment which others rightfully perceive as the main cause of instability in the region. Such concessions will shake the very foundations of the revolution, hence, Iran is prepared to be temporarily ungrateful to mediators and risk long term peaceful co-existence in the neighbourhood. In the other camp, US options till midterm elections are limited and are entirely dependent upon intermediaries or diplomatic/economic offers for future which the other side is not ready to buy. What can the present impasse lead to is another very difficult question to answer. However, it can be hypothesised. Diplomatic efforts are likely to continue till fourth of November. We might also see enhanced and more intense efforts by China and Russia individually or collectively in next two weeks. At the same time, Qatar and Pakistan will also continue to play their role. Assessing no likely breakthrough, Mr. Trump has initiated parallel efforts for recovering, at least domestically. These efforts are focussed on controlling inflation through cheaper inflows of diesel from Russia and some agreements on initial steps of deescalation between Russia and Ukraine in coming few days. Post elections in case Trump sustains or improves his standing in both houses, he may try new military means/strategy to force Iran coming to US terms. The employment of announced mother of all bombs (shot of nuclear weapon) could be GBU- 57 used in larger number at the same points of impact or on multiple targets. Alternatively, there could be some recently developed more destructive conventional munition or missile that is used for de-capacitating strikes. If US takes such an option, it will be short-lived, dangerous for the world and catastrophic for the region. In case Trump loses significantly then his style of leadership known for unpredictability could push geopolitical dynamics of the region in any direction which cannot be precisely assessed but definitely will be more dangerous for Iran and every other country in the region ; compared to its negative spinoffs for Israel and US. While Iran plays the well calculated hardball it must crystallise the decision point for coming to fall back position not only in the context of its missile and drone capability but the long term economic interests and well being of the Iranian people. In the meanwhile, every country in the region and Pakistani leadership must continue their efforts to prevent further deterioration of interstate relations in the region by controlling local conflicts . What Pakistan and partners are doing is not only in the interest of Iran, US and ME but a great service to the humanity .2/2